About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Precios de Futuros Ayer
Soya Agosto SBM Agosto SBO Agosto Trigo KC Sep Trigo Chi Sep Maíz Sep
Máximo 899.5 313.00 2825 462.5 523 444.75
Mínimo 887.25 309.30 2794 435.25 500.25 426.5
Cierre 899 312.40 2818 461.5 521.5 444.25
Cambio +4.5 +1.70 +9 +20 +16.75 +9.25

Opinión del Mercado: Precios por encima ayer, con pronósticos nuevos de calor y menos lluvia para el Cinturon. Los datos de USDA mostraon tendencias mezcladas. USDA utilizo los datos de la área sembrada para hacer sus cálculos, pero nadie cree mucho en eso. Mucha gente habla de menos área de maíz y ms de frijol de soya. USDA hizo otros ajustes con demanda, bajando demanda en la soya pero no tanto en maíz. Al fin el clima era la razón para apoyar maíz y frijol de soya. La falta de lluvia y calor ahora puede dañar la producción de ambos por causa de la falta de buen desarrollo antes. Es la verdad en mucho del Cinturón ese año por causa de toda la lluvia en la primavera y primer parte de Verano. Trigo subió con los datos de USDA de la producción mundial. Ellos cortaron la producción para Europa, Ucrania, Rusia, y Australia y creció demanda para la exportación para EUA. Era una sorpresa grande para el mercado y el mercado puede subir mas. Panama compro 104,100 toneladas de maíz americano.

Posiciones en el Mercado
Cobertura de Compra:
Cobertura de Venta:
Especuladores:

Tendencias de los Gráficos
Fríjol de Soya Agosto: Las tendencias están mezcladas o a subir, con objetivos de 908 y 930 Agosto. Apoyo a 884, 872, y 865 Agosto, y resistencia a 903, 909, y 917 Agosto.
Harina de Soya Agosto: Las tendencias están mezcladas o a subir, con objetivos de 314.00 y 319.00 Agosto. Apoyo a 308.00, 304.00, y 300.00 Agosto, y resistencia a 313.00, 316.00, y 317.00 Agosto.
Aceite de Soya Agosto: Las tendencias están mezcladas. Apoyo a 2780, 2760, y 2730 Agosto, y resistencia a 2830, 2860, y 2870 Agosto.
Trigo KC Septiembre: Las tendencias están a subir, con objetivos de 462 y 481 Septiembre. Compradores a 450, 440, y 431 Septiembre, y vendedores a 463, 472, y 477 Septiembre.
Trigo Chicago Septiembre: Las tendencias están mezcladas o a subir, con objetivos de 528 y 549 Septiembre. Compradores a 514, 507, y 498 Septiembre, y vendedores a 528, 535, y 536 Septiembre.
Maíz Septiembre: Las tendencias están mezcladas o a subir, con objetivos de 454 y 472 Septiembre. Compradores a 436, 427, y 425 Septiembre, y vendedores a 445, 447, y 452 Septiembre.

Noticias:
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Thursday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2019 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Production 13,875 13,511 12,566-13,880 13,680
Soybean Production 3,845 3,850 3,700-4,015 4,150
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Yield 166.0 * 164.9 162.0-167.0 166.0
Soybean Yield 48.5 ** 48.4 47.0-50.0 49.5
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2018-19
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,340 2,179 1,615-2,385 2,195
Soybeans 1,050 1,038 935-1,100 1,070
Wheat 1,072 1,076 1,055-1,102 1,102
2019-20
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,010 1,642 1,235-1,942 1,675
Soybeans 795 812 558-1,111 1,045
Wheat 1,000 1,028 925-1,092 1,072
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 328.8 325.0 320.0-329.6 325.4
Soybeans 113.0 112.6 111.6-115.5 112.8
Wheat 275.2 276.1 273.0-278.0 276.6
2019-20
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 298.9 290.2 282.4-294.5 290.5
Soybeans 104.5 110.7 103.0-124.1 112.7
Wheat 286.5 290.8 279.9-295.0 294.3
***
2019-20 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
All Wheat 1,921 1,905 1,700-1,995 1,903
Winter Wheat 1,291 1,278 1,231-1,314 1,274
Hard Red Winter 805 804 783-835 794
Soft Red Winter 259 254 240-262 258
White Winter 227 224 220-234 222
Other Spring 572 581 550-625 N/A
Durum 58 60 44-80 N/A
2018-19 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 101.0 100.9 99.7-102.0 101.0
Soybeans 117.0 117.0 116.0-118.0 117.0
2018-19 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 51.0 49.2 48.8-50.0 49.0
Soybeans 56.0 56.1 55.8-57.0 56.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jul 11
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18
Soybeans 795.01,050.0 438.0:151.26 150.16 153.08: 347.04 362.87 341.53
Brazil na na na: 76.00 77.25 76.18: 123.00 117.00 122.00
Argentina na na na: 8.00 8.75 2.11: 53.00 56.00 37.80
China na na na: 0.13 0.13 0.13: 17.00 15.90 15.20
Soyoil 1,535 1,875 1,995: 11.87 11.30 10.50: 57.52 56.30 55.17
Corn 2,010 2,340 2,140:170.84 172.38 148.75: 1,105 1,123 1,078
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02: 254.00 257.33 259.07
Argentina na na na: 33.50 35.00 22.50: 50.00 51.00 32.00
S.Africa na na na: 1.50 1.00 2.07: 14.00 11.50 13.10
Cotton(a) 6.70 5.00 4.30: 44.15 41.05 41.02: 125.79 119.32 123.78
All Wheat 1,000 1,072 1,099:183.11 175.26 182.04: 771.46 730.90 761.88
China na na na: 1.30 1.20 1.00: 132.00 131.43 134.33
EU 27 na na na: 27.00 24.00 23.29: 151.30 137.22 151.14
Canada na na na: 24.00 24.50 21.95: 33.30 31.80 29.98
Argentina na na na: 14.00 13.00 12.66: 20.00 19.50 18.50
Australia na na na: 12.50 9.00 13.85: 21.00 17.30 20.94
Russia na na na: 34.50 36.00 41.42: 74.20 71.69 85.17
Ukraine na na na: 19.00 16.20 17.78: 29.00 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 44.0 60.0 35.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 91.0 87.0 94.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 39.0 37.0 41.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 50.5 51.6 29.4: 46.91 46.19 47.12: 497.82 498.65 494.88

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 15, 2019 87 Jul 10, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 15, 2019 40 Jul 11, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 15, 2019 11 Jul 11, 2019
CORN July Jul. 15, 2019 128 Jul 11, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 15, 2019 2 Jul 09, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 15, 2019 120 Jul 11, 2019

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +56 Sep +157 Sep +40 Sep +60 Aug N/A N/A
August +54 Sep +50 Sep +58 Aug
September +54 Sep +70 Sep +38 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 11
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, July 11.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 435.80 -10.00 Nov 2019 dn 3.00
Track Thunder Bay 454.20 7.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.40
Track Vancouver 462.20 18.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jul 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 487.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 490.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 475.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 350.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 131.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1100)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 139,870 lots, or 4.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,380 3,380 3,380 0 0 0
Sep-19 3,388 3,427 3,375 3,416 3,399 3,398 -1 126,486 140,056
Nov-19 3,458 3,458 3,458 3,458 3,460 3,458 -2 2 322
Jan-20 3,409 3,428 3,396 3,416 3,411 3,409 -2 11,806 53,204
Mar-20 – – – 3,427 3,427 3,427 0 0 30
May-20 3,519 3,530 3,506 3,519 3,514 3,516 2 1,576 26,114
Corn
Turnover: 553,570 lots, or 10.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 1,896 1,912 1,896 -16 0 0
Sep-19 1,917 1,919 1,909 1,918 1,913 1,913 0 356,266 916,076
Nov-19 1,933 1,948 1,933 1,948 1,942 1,941 -1 29,142 344,498
Jan-20 1,975 1,980 1,970 1,980 1,973 1,974 1 155,634 581,622
Mar-20 1,993 1,998 1,990 1,998 1,991 1,993 2 118 2,316
May-20 2,038 2,043 2,033 2,042 2,037 2,037 0 12,410 108,382
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,879,256 lots, or 52.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 2,786 2,764 2,786 22 0 0
Aug-19 2,786 2,892 2,775 2,814 2,781 2,823 42 1,102 1,506
Sep-19 2,789 2,818 2,777 2,808 2,788 2,795 7 1,462,464 1,611,758
Nov-19 2,828 2,850 2,813 2,840 2,821 2,824 3 91,598 212,766
Dec-19 2,839 2,900 2,820 2,900 2,842 2,853 11 308 1,206
Jan-20 2,846 2,875 2,841 2,871 2,846 2,860 14 278,688 575,164
Mar-20 2,795 2,820 2,795 2,811 2,792 2,811 19 30 764
May-20 2,739 2,752 2,732 2,749 2,737 2,744 7 45,066 212,962
Palm Oil
Turnover: 374,944 lots, or 15.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 4,206 4,206 4,206 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,200 4,206 4,164 4,180 4,200 4,182 -18 274,840 624,462
Oct-19 – – – 4,296 4,296 4,296 0 0 16
Nov-19 4,292 4,292 4,292 4,292 4,336 4,292 -44 2 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,452 4,452 4,452 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,414 4,420 4,384 4,402 4,412 4,396 -16 95,516 247,744
Feb-20 – – – 4,470 4,470 4,470 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,596 4,612 4,596 -16 0 2
May-20 4,642 4,648 4,620 4,634 4,638 4,632 -6 4,586 21,142
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 441,302 lots, or 24.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 0
Aug-19 5,266 5,266 5,266 5,266 5,384 5,266 -118 2 32
Sep-19 5,440 5,450 5,390 5,400 5,446 5,416 -30 339,178 682,448
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,524 5,524 5,524 0 0 28
Jan-20 5,614 5,620 5,558 5,572 5,612 5,582 -30 97,914 278,588
Mar-20 – – – 5,610 5,640 5,610 -30 0 12
May-20 5,716 5,728 5,670 5,682 5,716 5,700 -16 4,208 36,164
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322