William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
It’s been a while! Just trying to figure it out! Record planting delays led to a $1.25 rally – but the USDA issued an off-the-wall acreage report on June 28 – saying that MORE CORN & LESS BEANS were planted over 2018! Maybe the USDA doesn’t have windows? In any event, the historically slow start has put a floor in the mkt – with much weather ahead!!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 757,000 (800-1,100) & Fri Sales were 1,029 (600 – 1,200)
- PLANTING PROGRESS – beans are 96% in (avg-99) Ill – 93 (99) Ind – 93 (100) Iowa – 99 (100)
Good/excellent – 54% – 53%
These are the lowest crop ratings in 4-5 years
- USDA REPORTS – the credibility of the USDA was severely called into question on June 28 – when they predicted that 9 million less acres would be planted versus 2018 – in their defense, their #’s were compiled very early – before the planting was complete & before “prevent acres” were announced! A July S & D will be issued Thur 7/11 & is expected to be bearish – as the announced revisions to the 6/28 report won’t come out until the August Report!
- WEATHER – after being a major adversary to the crops – early on – forcing record planting delays – has now become a possible friend to the mkt with more benign forecasts for the developing crop – but still a lot of water to pass under the bridge – with “hot & dry” still in the equation & early frost a possibility because of the lateness of the planting
- GEO-POLITICAL – Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued dovish
- Remarks today – citing a sluggish economy & the probability of interest rate
- Cuts – which forced the US Dollar lower – a positive for grain exports!
- US/CHINA TRADE TALKS – are expected to resume soon with the hope
- Something concrete can be established before year-end – Trumps needs a resolution for his re-election & both countries have to realize that nobody wins a trade war!!
At the very least, the horrible start to the crops this year – especially coming off 10 year lows -has effectively put a floor in this mkt – going forward, more weather risks abound ( H & D, early frost)! Stay tuned!!
Order has been restored after the BIZARRO ACREAGE NUMBERS issued by the USDA on 6/28! How the slowest planting pace in history morphed into 2 million MORE acres than 2018 – we never know! But the mkt wasn’t buying it! So after the 30 cent sharp decline immediately following the report, the mkt recouped those losses equally fast –actually reaching the pre-report close yesterday! We feel the miserable start to the 2019 growing season – much like beans – has taken the “down” out of the mkt! Any weather issues or trade deals will rally this mkt hard – from a price level still in the bottom 1/3 of a 10 yr band.
There are many reasons Sept Wht has a hard time rallying – improving crop conditions, a worldwide glut of supplies, stagnant corn & Bean mkts – but the major culprit is its price level – which is too high to be competitive in the export mkt! For instance, Egypt frequently buys wheat – but hardly ever from the US! So until that scenario corrects itself, any wht strength will probably be derived from “spillover” off sharp rallies in corn & beans!
What’s wrong with this picture – Aug Cat – on the heels of a $20 break (121 – 101) – right into the strongest demand period of the year (the barbecue season) – can’t get off the dime! But – as the above charts show – the worm may have turned a very bullish shift in production from the 4th Qtr to the 1st Qtr of 2020 – coupled with the sheet cheapness of the product has created a favorable supply/demand scenario!! Finally!!
Wow! Finally! It looks like a 2-day upside explosion of almost $5.50 has signaled the long-awaited low in the hog mkt! Reasons being given are optimism over the renewed trade talks between the US & China – but we feel a $30 break (104-74) into the most potent demand period of the year- was enough to turn the tide!!
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