About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on ideas of improving US crop conditions. It is finally turned warmer and drier for the crop in the Texas Panhandle and other producing areas of the US are through to be in good shape. Ideas are that USDA can show a good crop in its monthly outlooks later this week. On the other hand, export demand remains disappointing. Crop progress remains very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but appear to be improving. Trends are still sideways on the daily charts, but the price action is wakening. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings still show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. It is now turning warmer and drier in the Panhandle so conditions can improve. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. June rains are less than normal this year. Some forecasts say that the monsoon will fade early this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast could see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 65,586 bales, from 67,727 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 240 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6550, 6530, and 6470 December, with resistance of 6680, 6790, and 6830 December.

Crop Progress
Date 7-Jul 30-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 47 37 57 54
Cotton Setting Bolls 13 7 20 16
Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 17 27 47 7
Cotton Last Week 5 13 30 45 7
Cotton Last Year 8 19 32 34 7

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 228,611
: Positions :
: 32,519 72,030 45,841 58,311 82,277 77,060 14,075 213,730 214,223: 14,880 14,387
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,999) :
: 1,924 -2,390 3,214 2,409 2,939 -3,296 2,005 4,251 5,768: 1,748 230
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 31.5 20.1 25.5 36.0 33.7 6.2 93.5 93.7: 6.5 6.3
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 98 79 55 54 45 21 224 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and the market is still featuring choppy trading in a range. Weather forecast are now calling for a tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico. The system would probably stay to the west of Florida, but the system is a sign that the tropics are getting more active. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and weekly charts. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 102.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 107.00, 110.00, and 115.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 2, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,914 :
: Positions :
: 13,851 9,755 1,524 0 82 497 7,448 120 1,118 1,122 3,541 :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 :
: 366 -84 58 0 -38 49 618 0 163 29 148 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.9 40.8 6.4 0.0 0.3 2.1 31.1 0.5 4.7 4.7 14.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 80 :
: 24 10 8 0 . . 24 . 17 5 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower in New York and lower in London as the coldest weather in Brazil in six-year this past weekend apparently did little significant damage to crops. Below freezing temperatures were reported in Parana and in parts of Minas Gerais. However, reports from Minas Gerais suggest that damage in that state was minimal. Parana damage was much greater, but the state is not a big source of Coffee anymore as producers moved north after freezes a couple of decades ago. There was bad weather at flowering time and the harvest is reporting low yields and quality, anyway. The chart trends have turned down with the price action yesterday. There is a lot of talk that production will be much less than 50 million bags as the press and the coffee association there all report reduced yields and quality. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.363 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.57 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures today and warmer temperatures starting tomorrow. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 13 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 557 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 105.00, 99.00, and 94.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 101.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1390 and 1340 September. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1380 September, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1510 September.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 12% in June to 2.9 Million Bags — Cecafe
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports rose in June from a year earlier as sales abroad of the arabica variety jumped, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 2.9 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, an increase of 12% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Monday.
Arabica exports rose 10.5% to 2.2 million bags, while exports of robusta beans increased 35.8% to 385,582 bags.
Brazil produced a record 47.5 million bags of the arabica variety of beans in 2018, and exported a record 41.1 million bags from July of last year through June, 2019, Cecafe said. The growing flow of coffee from Brazil into world markets helped push the price for arabica beans to the lowest in more than 10 years in May, and they remain low even after recovering some ground since then.
Exports of roasted, ground and soluble coffee fell 0.1% in May to 313,208 bags, Cecafe said.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 331,337
: Positions :
: 33,322 56,727 80,560 132,156 158,670 66,802 23,503 312,840 319,460: 18,497 11,877
: :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -6,061) :
: -2,184 -14,355 -87 -2,047 10,099 -2,280 -3,204 -6,598 -7,547: 537 1,486
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.1 17.1 24.3 39.9 47.9 20.2 7.1 94.4 96.4: 5.6 3.6
: :
: Total Traders: 478 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 146 119 146 138 119 44 25 412 341:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/02/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
133,022 76,549 63,123 23,708 9,563 2,192
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.5% 47.5% 17.8% 7.2% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
151 55 44 18 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,845 32,258 9,684 1,328 424 14,308
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.6% 24.2% 7.3% 1.0% 0.3% 10.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
11 31 12 8 8 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
408 1,469
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.3% 1.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in reaction to the frost and freezing temperatures in southern Brazil. There was some damage to crops in central and southern growing areas. Producers will try to harvest the badly damaged Sugarcane for Sugar or Ethanol and will try to let the less damaged Sugarcane heel in the fields to be harvested later. The market is also reacting to reports of lower production potential in India. The losses there could be significant due to the late start to the monsoon, but the country has a big surplus and should have no problem with supplies for the coming year. The production losses this year could mean that India will feel less pressure to dump Sugar on the world market and that would help world prices hold current levels or rally. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage but remains behind average and rains are below average for the month. Many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Water supplies are low so good monsoon rains will be needed. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be below normal today and near to above normal starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1200 October, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1290 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 October, and resistance is at 328.00, 331.00, and 333.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 977,770
: Positions :
: 113,908 205,219 170,976 331,605 486,468 287,019 48,725 903,507 911,387: 74,262 66,382
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -29,986) :
: 4,430 1,563 32,105 -68,072 -65,819 731 -1,075 -30,806 -33,226: 820 3,240
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 21.0 17.5 33.9 49.8 29.4 5.0 92.4 93.2: 7.6 6.8
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 59 80 81 79 34 18 212 201:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/02/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
128,703 80,337 64,481 15,171 3,737 2,346
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.4% 50.1% 11.8% 2.9% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 52 44 13 4 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,833 41,028 7,539 2,821 1,029 4,408
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.5% 31.9% 5.9% 2.2% 0.8% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 30 14 13 5 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,247 4,134
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 3.2%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher on news that Ivory Coast and Ghana could not agree with exporters on ways to implement a minimum price scheme for them Cocoa produced in both countries. Additional buying came from chart formations as both markets broke out of trading ranges.. Ivory Coast and Ghana announced a support mechanism for producers in the probable event that prices do not reach the set minimum selling price of $2,600 per ton. Producers will still get a payment of maybe about $400 to facilitate movement and support the producers. The governments did not supply other details. There has not been any news recently to support bullish traders, but the market has not really been able to break much. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ivory Coast arrivals re now 2.115 million tons., from 1.904 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.442 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 723 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 26230 and 2750 September. Support is at 2530, 2520, and 2500 September, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2650 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970 September. Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1850 September, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 1970 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 304,211
: Positions :
: 51,401 34,534 64,254 109,629 175,588 62,615 18,408 287,899 292,784: 16,312 11,427
: :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: 9,186) :
: -1,599 -494 1,968 8,826 8,726 1,470 82 10,664 10,281: -1,478 -1,095
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 11.4 21.1 36.0 57.7 20.6 6.1 94.6 96.2: 5.4 3.8
: :
: Total Traders: 230 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 59 77 42 40 36 13 202 149:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/02/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
341,241 182,395 230,141 25,493 32,954 23,094
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.5% 67.4% 7.5% 9.7% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 49 42 14 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
57,649 5,114 25,154 4,449 112 22,034
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.9% 1.5% 7.4% 1.3% 0.0% 6.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 9 15 15 7 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
975 2,638
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.3% 0.8%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322