Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was little changed in slow trading before the holiday in the US. Hopes are that an agreement is not far away, but the details will still be difficult and the US trade representative said the final negotiations will take some time. Crop progress remains very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but appear to be improving. Trends are sideways on the daily charts. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. It is now turning warmer and drier in the Panhandle so conditions can improve. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. June rains are less than normal this year. Some forecasts say that the monsoon will fade early this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast could see some showers over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 72,254 bales, from 72,254 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 233 contracts USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 141,500 bales this year and 55,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 2,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6620, 6570, and 6550 December, with resistance of 6790, 6830, and 6860 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly lower and the market is still featuring choppy trading in a range. It seems now that the market could take another leg lower. There are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 107.00, 110.00, and 115.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and in London on forecasts for cold weather in Brazil this weekend. Temperatures are expected to get close to 0C in parts of Parana, but there is not much Coffee there anymore. Temperatures in Minas Gerais are expected to stay warm enough to avoid any potential damage. Coffee losses are possible but would be relatively minor. There was bad weather at flowering time and the harvest is reporting low yields and quality, anyway. The chart patterns remain very positive. There is a lot of talk that production will be much less than 50 million bags as the press and the coffee association there all report reduced yields and quality. CONAB has estimated production just above 50 million bags in its latest reports, but more and more private sources are talking about production below too much below 50 million bags. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.373 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.87 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Frost is possible this weekend in Parana. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 544 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 122.00 September. Support is at 110.00, 108.00, and 106.00 September, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00 and 120.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1480, 1530, and 1580 September. Support is at 1440, 1430, and 1410 September, and resistance is at 1490, 1510, and 1530 September.
DJ Ugandan Indicative Arabica Coffee Export Prices for July 3
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA, Uganda–Below are the indicative cash export prices for Ugandan arabica coffee, as provided by the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority on Wednesday.
Grade Nearby Prices
Bugisu AA 104.30 (89.30)
Bugisu A 103.30 (88.30)
Bugisu P 103.30 (88.30)
Bugisu B 101.30 (86.30)
Wugar 102.30 (87.30)
Drugar 83.30 (71.30)
All prices are in U.S. cents for a pound of beans. Prices in brackets are those quoted by the UCDA a week ago. Nearby delivery means within 45 days. Prices include transportation costs to the Kenyan port of Mombasa, but not shipping costs.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on forecasts for frost or freezing temperatures in southern Brazil. The market was also reacting to reports of lower production potential in India. The losses there could be significant due to the late start to the monsoon, but the country has a big surplus and should have no problem with supplies for the coming year. The production losses this year could mean that India will feel less pressure to dump Sugar on the world market. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage but remains behind average and rains are below average for the month. Many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Water supplies are low so good monsoon rains will be needed. The lower rains are viewed with alarm in cities as well as some people living in cities could run out of water. Harvest conditions remain good in Brazil. Brazilian processors prefer to make Ethanol for the domestic market rather than Sugar for the export market. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1200 October, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1290 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 325.00, 323.00, and 320.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 336.00, and 338.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in apparent speculative long liquidation and perhaps some small amounts of farm selling. Ivory Coast and Ghana announced a support mechanism for producers in the probable event that prices do not reach the set minimum selling price of $2,600 per ton. Producers will still get a payment of maybe about $400 to facilitate movement and support the producers. The governments did not supply other details. There has not been any news recently to support bullish traders, but the market has not really been able to break much. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.440 million bags. ICE said that 13 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 698 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2380 September, with resistance at 2510, 2540, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1810 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.