Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. May Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Jul 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2019—- —-Apr 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 152,485,327 336,230,146 130,238,762 287,176,470
coffee, roasted 9,009,165 19,865,209 8,056,946 17,765,566
instant 4,637,585 10,225,875 4,355,888 9,604,733
cocoa beans 41,064,516 90,547,258 55,902,161 123,264,265
10 lbs or over 2,885,972 6,363,568 1,771,611 3,906,402
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 12,866,181 28,369,929 10,180,174 22,447,284
not defatted 3,245,451 7,156,219 2,521,472 5,559,846
defatted 4,099,416 9,039,212 4,352,189 9,596,577
unsweetened 12,897,228 28,438,388 12,171,588 26,838,352
sweetened 29,440 64,915 60,260 132,873
coating 3,540,293 7,806,346 3,753,723 8,276,959
chocolate 9,253,056 20,402,988 9,725,729 21,445,232
General Comments: Cotton was higher again as the US stock market was also firm. Word that China was easing on trade restrictions helped support Cotton. Hopes are that an agreement is not far away, but the details will still be difficult and the US trade representative said the final negotiations will take some time. Crop progress remains very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but appear to be improving. Trends are sideways on the daily charts, but futures have held support and now look prepared to try to turn trends up or at least probe the upper end of the trading range again. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. It is now turning warmer and drier in the Panhandle so conditions can improve. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. June rains are less than normal this year. Some forecasts say that the monsoon will fade early this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, but parts of the Southeast could see some showers over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 74,351 bales, from 76,992 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 233 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6620, 6570, and 6550 December, with resistance of 6790, 6830, and 6860 December.
DJ U.S. May Cotton Exports-Jul 3
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 May 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 24,217,252 23,711,754 29,595,798 25,684,587
1 to 1 1/8 inch 117,650,352 103,818,495 133,680,644 151,338,680
upland 1 1/8 and over 246,313,793 248,146,768 286,568,070 246,435,499
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 110,477,242 7,205,404 9,659,747 9,622,524
All cotton 498,658,639 382,882,421 459,504,259 433,081,290
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 May 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 111,229 108,907 135,932 117,968
1 to 1 1/8 inch 540,364 476,834 613,990 695,093
upland 1 1/8 and over 1,131,310 1,139,729 1,316,196 1,131,869
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 507,418 33,094 44,367 44,196
All cotton 2,290,320 1,758,565 2,110,486 1,989,126
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly lower and the market is still featuring choppy trading in a range. It seems now that the market could take another leg lower. There are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 107.00, 110.00, and 115.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and in London on fund selling. More forecasters calling for cold temperatures that could possibly damage crops this weekend appeared, but most seem to be looking for temperatures to get cold enough to produce a light frost in some areas and nothing more. The threat of damage is possible but has been harder in recent years as producers moved out of colder areas like Parana in the last 20 years. There was bad weather at flowering time and the harvest is reporting low yields and quality, anyway. The chart patterns remain very positive. There is now a lot of talk that production will be much less than 50 million bags as the press and the coffee association there all report reduced yields and quality. CONAB has estimated production just above 50 million bags in its latest reports, but more and more private sources are talking about production below too much below 50 million bags. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.370 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 105.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today, then chances for light showers with below normal temperatures. Frost is possible this weekend in Parana. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 544 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 122.00 September. Support is at 108.00, 106.00, and 105.00 September, and resistance is at 114.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1480, 1530, and 1580 September. Support is at 1440, 1430, and 1410 September, and resistance is at 1490, 1510, and 1530 September.
DJ ICO Forecasts Coffee Surplus of 3.11M Bags in 2018-19 — Market Talk
1700 GMT – Coffee is one of the few commodities in the green today, extending the recovery that has taken place over the past month. But the supply outlook looks strong, which analysts say could put prices back under pressure. “Despite the ongoing demand growth, a global production surplus of 3.11 million bags is expected in coffee year 2018-19,” the International Coffee Organization forecasts in its monthly report. The ICO says global exports hit 86.6 million bags in the first eight months of the 2018-19 season–through May–an increase of 7.5% from the same period in 2017-18. Arabica futures are up 0.4% at $1.10 a pound in New York. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
General Comments: Futures closed lower and the London market remains the weaker venue. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage but remains behind average and rains are below average for the month. Many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Water supplies are low so good monsoon rains will be needed. The lower rains are viewed with alarm in cities as well as some people living in cities could run out of water. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India has always been willing to dump agricultural goods such as Rice and Sugar at below cost prices, so the market began to anticipate improved sales from mills and exporters there. Harvest conditions remain good in Brazil. Brazilian processors prefer to make Ethanol for the domestic market rather than Sugar for the export market. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather today, hen some light showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1210 October. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1200 October, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1290 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 325.00, 323.00, and 320.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 336.00, and 338.00 October.
DJ Poor Indian Crop May Not Boost Sugar Prices — Market Talk
1314 GMT – The Indian monsoon season is belatedly underway, but the damage to next season’s sugar crop has already been done. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates that the 2019-20 harvest, which starts in October, will reap 28.2 million tons of sugar cane. That’s “a massive decline from this year’s 32.9 million tons,” says Robin Shaw, an analyst at Marex Spectron. “We are even hearing lower estimates.” Nick Penney, senior trader at fellow brokerage Sucden Financial, thinks prices are more likely to move in response to decisions made on India’s export and inventory policies than to weather updates. He says there seems to be no momentum to change the so-called fair and remunerative price that mills are required to pay farmers, creating an incentive to over-produce. Indian agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar yesterday said there is “no cause of concern” about the 33% rainfall deficit in June but added that his ministry “is keeping a close watch.” (email@example.com)
General Comments: Futures closed lower in apparent speculative long liquidation and perhaps some small amounts of farm selling. There has not been any news recently to support bullish traders, but the market has not really been able to break much. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.458 million bags. ICE said that 75 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 685 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2410 September, with resistance at 2510, 2540, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1810 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.