About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 5
For the week ended Jun 27, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 276.5 0.0 7224.2 5992.0 5258.7 0.0
hrw 74.7 0.0 2896.5 1468.6 1825.4 0.0
srw 17.2 0.0 1014.5 746.1 853.3 0.0
hrs 102.0 0.0 1794.0 1931.1 1387.2 0.0
white 82.7 0.0 1290.7 1718.0 1018.8 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 228.4 128.4 173.9 0.0
corn 175.6 156.3 48915.6 57693.3 6025.9 3335.2
soybeans 867.6 161.5 48526.1 57291.9 10620.1 2475.9
soymeal 16.8 8.6 11273.4 11508.0 2369.2 691.0
soyoil 19.7 0.0 805.0 967.9 170.7 4.2
upland cotton 141.5 55.3 15262.6 16184.2 3629.4 4054.7
pima cotton 2.5 0.1 728.2 637.2 122.3 58.3
sorghum -3.9 0.0 1554.7 5197.3 245.6 0.0
barley 0.5 0.0 51.3 48.9 48.5 0.0
rice 41.6 1.0 3370.6 2933.6 561.6 66.9

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 08, 2019 298 Jul 03, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 08, 2019 611 Jul 03, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 08, 2019 14 Jun 27, 2019
CORN July Jul. 08, 2019 948 Jul 02, 2019
ETHANOL July Jul. 08, 2019 83 Jun 27, 2019
OATS July Jul. 08, 2019 1 Jul 03, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 08, 2019 365 Jul 03, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher, but Wheat was more of a follower than a leader on Wednesday. There was no real news to support Wheat prices. HRW markets are feeling harvest pressure and traders in that market are hearing about big production. SRW yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter. Protein levels for HRW should be lower than normal due to the rains. Rains are improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. USDA noted the improving conditions in its Monday reports. Drier weather in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is almost harvest time for Winter crops in these areas. Conditions are very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off and on all weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 499 September. Support is at 501, 499, and 494 September, with resistance at 517, 519, and 528 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 431, 425, and 418 September, with resistance at 452, 463, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 534 September. Support is at 535, 529, and 524 September, and resistance is at 543, 546, and 552 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in relatively active trading. Traders were buying the market after learning that China had bought US Rice. The news was released by USA Rice and it could be very bullish. China has never b ought in volume here and the industry has worked very hard for this day. The market could rally significantly if China keeps buying in the US. The weather is improving in Rice country as it finally seems to be turning warmer and drier. The crop condition showed slight improvement last night and the progress in general is good. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. Western areas could get some rains from a tropical system over the next few days. June rains were less than average this year and even some cities are worried that they can run out of water unless the rains get significantly better. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1125, 1108, and 1103 September. Support is at 1126, 1118, and 1111 September, with resistance at 1146, 1149, and 1159 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on fund related buying on news of improving demand. Ethanol demand was very strong last week and Bloomberg reported that China was considering purchases of US Corn, Soybeans, and Pork in a good will gesture. It said the amounts would be less than what was bought in the previous trade truce. The trends are down, but the market could continue to bounce as it waits for more information about the Corn crop this year. The trade is still talking about the planted area data from USDA and many think the estimate is wrong. USDA could be one of those thinking that the planted area is too large as they said on Friday that they will resurvey producers in fourteen states to see what actually got done. The new results will be available for the August report and until then the market will have to use the data it has now. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. Either way, near perfect weather is now needed to make a good crop this year. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the week seems to be improved as warmer conditions are forecast.
Overnight News: Ethanol production rose to 1.081million barrels per day this week, from 1.072 million last week and 1.067 million last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.8 million barrels this week, from 21.6 million barrels last and 22.0 million last year. Ethanol used an 110.2 million bushels of Corn this week, from 109.2 million last week and 109.5 million last year. Corn use for the marketing year to date for Ethanol production is now 4.534 billion bushels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 394 September. Support is at 430, 425, and 421 September, and resistance is at 442, 447, and 452 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 298 September. Support is at 278, 275, and 270 September, and resistance is at 288, 291, and 296 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher on hopes for increased demand from China. Bloomberg reported that China was considering purchases of US Corn, Soybeans, and Pork in a good will gesture. It said the amounts would be less than what was bought in the previous trade truce. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. Planting progress should get better now as the weather is turning drier in the Midwest. The last of the planting should be done by the end of the holiday weekend. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. Trump and Xi met at the G-20 and declared a truce in the trade war. Trump told the market to expect improved demand for agricultural goods from China, but China is not likely to buy much in feed grains or oilseeds due to the Swine Flu. It could become a massive buyer of pork and other meat products. The trade is also still about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. It will probably take years for the US to get the lost market share back.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 856 August. Support is at 877, 871, and 865 August, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 903 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 303.00 August. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 316.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2780 and 2720 August. Support is at 2770, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2870 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower despite the rally in Chicago as ideas of demand problems and Canada’s own problems with China continue. The weather is mixed, with many areas still dry and crops getting stressed, but some areas in the southwest parts getting some rains this week. Palm Oil was a little higher on currency considerations, but weaker demand and stronger production are still in the background. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 448.00, 444.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 457.00, 459.00, and 463.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1980, 2010, and 2020 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +48 Sep +153 Sep +40 Sep +53 Aug N/A N/A
August +47 Sep +50 Sep +53 Aug
September +50 Sep +60 Sep +38 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July +150 Aug +10 Aug +70 Aug
August +160 Aug +10 Aug +80 Aug
September +140 Sep +10 Sep +100 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Jul 4
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Thursday, July 4
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 440.40 -10.00 July 2019 up 7.20
Track Thunder Bay 455.70 7.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.70
Track Vancouver 466.70 18.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jul 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 490.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 477.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 360.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 133.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1330)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 94,652 lots, or 3.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,380 3,380 3,380 0 0 0
Sep-19 3,406 3,440 3,395 3,437 3,415 3,419 4 86,430 130,866
Nov-19 3,490 3,508 3,459 3,508 3,505 3,484 -21 52 250
Jan-20 3,418 3,430 3,406 3,429 3,416 3,418 2 6,532 51,094
Mar-20 – – – 3,427 3,427 3,427 0 0 30
May-20 3,506 3,529 3,506 3,526 3,513 3,519 6 1,638 23,802
Corn
Turnover: 494,768 lots, or 9.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,895 1,895 1,895 1,895 1,895 1,895 0 2 11,520
Sep-19 1,936 1,939 1,931 1,934 1,940 1,934 -6 279,124 920,122
Nov-19 1,961 1,967 1,961 1,967 1,967 1,964 -3 135,206 342,974
Jan-20 1,995 1,998 1,993 1,997 1,997 1,995 -2 74,358 573,812
Mar-20 2,021 2,021 2,012 2,014 2,015 2,017 2 248 2,432
May-20 2,057 2,061 2,056 2,059 2,059 2,058 -1 5,830 97,256
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,332,580 lots, or 37.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 2,764 2,764 2,764 0 0 12
Aug-19 2,793 2,806 2,787 2,793 2,792 2,793 1 6,030 3,226
Sep-19 2,810 2,814 2,792 2,804 2,812 2,803 -9 1,024,530 1,782,008
Nov-19 2,831 2,847 2,827 2,837 2,846 2,839 -7 136,508 211,592
Dec-19 2,849 2,849 2,836 2,836 2,851 2,846 -5 12 840
Jan-20 2,850 2,863 2,842 2,855 2,857 2,852 -5 141,640 530,090
Mar-20 2,800 2,800 2,778 2,778 2,808 2,789 -19 4 772
May-20 2,750 2,754 2,741 2,748 2,753 2,747 -6 23,856 194,666
Palm Oil
Turnover: 816,602 lots, or 35.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 4,234 4,234 4,234 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,242 4,290 4,232 4,244 4,238 4,250 12 664,198 677,584
Oct-19 – – – 4,330 4,330 4,330 0 0 16
Nov-19 4,450 4,470 4,450 4,470 4,474 4,462 -12 6 24
Dec-19 – – – 4,452 4,440 4,452 12 0 10
Jan-20 4,476 4,512 4,444 4,452 4,472 4,466 -6 150,210 238,320
Feb-20 – – – 4,490 4,490 4,490 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,618 4,618 4,618 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,654 4,654 4,654 0 0 2
May-20 4,712 4,728 4,664 4,670 4,692 4,682 -10 2,188 20,950
Jun-20 – – – 4,730 4,730 4,730 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 361,462 lots, or 19.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 0
Aug-19 5,440 5,440 5,338 5,388 5,338 5,396 58 18 38
Sep-19 5,422 5,442 5,408 5,430 5,422 5,426 4 281,202 705,544
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,576 5,576 5,576 0 0 12
Jan-20 5,600 5,618 5,578 5,602 5,592 5,598 6 74,214 253,708
Mar-20 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 10
May-20 5,718 5,732 5,700 5,716 5,704 5,718 14 6,028 27,838
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322