About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 05, 2019 486 Jul 02, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 05, 2019 1179 Jul 02, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 05, 2019 14 Jun 27, 2019
CORN July Jul. 05, 2019 1578 Jun 28, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 05, 2019 5 Apr 24, 2019
OATS July Jul. 05, 2019 2 Jul 02, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 05, 2019 741 Jun 27, 2019

DJ U.S. May Grain Imports-Jul 3
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-May 2019—- —-Apr 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 526,562 1,161,069 72,575 160,028
spring wheat 5,444,171 12,004,397 5,132,449 11,317,050
winter wheat 17,325,925 38,203,665 694,123 1,530,541
wheat/meslin 16,127,228 35,560,538 46,631,529 102,822,521
TOTAL WHEAT 39,423,886 86,929,669 52,530,676 115,830,141
barley 4,196,753 9,253,840 8,784,115 19,368,974
oats 865,672 1,908,807 1,875,712 4,135,945
corn 42,482,343 93,673,566 31,048,525 68,461,998
other corn 4,737,754 10,446,748 3,143,044 6,930,412
TOTAL CORN 47,220,097 104,120,314 34,191,569 75,392,410

DJ U.S. May Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Jul 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2019—- —-Apr 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 45,290,491 99,865,533 46,616,982 102,790,445
palm kernel oil 29,601,418 65,271,127 29,094,752 64,153,928
palm oil 144,951,965 319,619,083 83,309,456 183,697,350
soybean 14,050,984 30,982,420 33,175,834 73,152,714
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 15,642,686 34,492,123 13,182,744 29,067,951
rapeseed oil
edible 145,927,969 321,771,172 156,815,231 345,777,584
rapeseed oil,
inedible 81,226 179,103 0 0

DJ U.S. May Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jul 3
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 May 18(*)
soybeans 2,560,436,948 2,399,256,207 3,706,545,782 2,990,804,780
soyoil 93,319,407 67,260,563 123,304,166 195,695,908
crude 80,309,787 54,848,471 105,920,622 171,049,084
refined 81,671 269,364 129,031 578,273
other/1 12,554,494 11,760,032 16,580,273 23,792,737
hydrogenated 373,455 382,696 674,240 275,814
cottonseed oil 1,585,127 1,834,714 5,445,670 3,460,433
crude 0 50,033 35,498 21,928
refined 861,300 1,350,346 4,327,610 2,451,026
other/1 723,827 434,335 1,082,562 987,479
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 1,995 13,964 194,877 297,129
sunseed oil 8,445,942 3,418,492 5,300,889 4,451,100
rapeseed 4,916,672 48,499,551 7,757,865 9,609,423
rapeseed oil 7,490,362 6,277,562 10,708,041 6,517,150
crude 2,221,525 466,400 5,744,495 2,539,610
refined 5,268,837 5,811,162 4,963,546 3,977,540
linseed meal 266,278 84,329 226,759 202,500
cottonseed meal 6,108,089 10,785,281 9,277,529 7,651,232
soymeal 819,429,924 1,007,722,086 763,932,135 931,728,038
soymeal/flour 185,251,087 249,266,524 298,109,814 265,184,355
soymeal hulls 12,266,000 13,508,000 6,244,000 14,865,000
lard 1,855,826 838,291 962,910 1,152,981
edible tallow 10,089,035 9,480,138 9,004,718 10,826,524
inedible tallow 22,685,354 28,534,460 28,903,310 26,948,754
ch white grease 6,531 8,894 27,761 320,147
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 May 18(*)
soybeans 94,078,987 88,156,670 136,190,846 109,892,136
soyoil 205,734,111 148,284,184 271,839,200 431,435,700
crude 177,052,804 120,920,201 233,515,039 377,098,745
refined 180,054 593,846 284,465 1,274,874
other/1 27,677,926 25,926,437 36,553,251 52,454,015
hydrogenated 823,327 843,700 1,486,445 608,066
cottonseed oil 3,494,607 4,044,853 12,005,649 7,628,950
crude 0 110,304 78,260 48,343
refined 1,898,842 2,977,004 9,540,749 5,403,588
other/1 1,595,766 957,545 2,386,641 2,177,019
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 4,398 30,785 429,630 655,057
sunseed oil 18,620,118 7,536,486 11,686,462 9,812,997
rapeseed 10,839,408 106,923,226 17,103,168 21,185,155
rapeseed oil 16,513,424 13,839,658 23,607,193 14,367,859
crude 4,897,625 1,028,236 12,664,446 5,598,883
refined 11,615,799 12,811,421 10,942,748 8,768,976
linseed meal 294 93 250 223
cottonseed meal 6,733 11,889 10,227 8,434
soymeal 903,258 1,110,812 842,082 1,027,044
soymeal flour/me 204,202 274,766 328,606 292,313
soymeal hulls 13,521 14,890 6,883 16,386
lard 4,091,397 1,848,116 2,122,854 2,541,888
edible tallow 22,242,519 20,900,130 19,852,008 23,868,404
inedible tallow 50,012,653 62,907,727 63,720,902 59,411,843
ch white grease 14,398 19,608 61,203 705,803

DJ U.S. May Grain Exports-Jul 3
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 May 18(*)
Barley 4,175,958 4,307,261 4,178,585 2,086,948
Corn /1 4,689,879,000 5,472,181,000 4,770,645,000 7,869,046,000
Sorghum 270,316,000 124,286,000 155,479,000 91,361,000
Oats 1,942,819 1,536,428 3,025,349 1,998,101
Rye 550,000 30,000 0 426,000
Wheat /1 2,801,109,478 2,842,959,881 1,969,681,565 1,826,033,449
wheat flour /1 21,801,686 22,935,912 22,872,007 26,568,671
Malt 39,536,628 35,137,117 33,395,882 39,241,068
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
May 19 Apr 19 Mar 19 May 18(*)
Barley 191,798 197,829 191,919 95,852
Corn /1 184,630,486 215,428,039 187,810,070 309,787,478
Sorghum 10,641,762 4,892,873 6,120,875 3,596,687
Oats 133,848 105,850 208,428 137,657
Rye 21,652 1,181 0 16,771
Wheat /1 102,922,098 104,459,822 72,372,666 67,094,555
wheat flour /1 480,645 505,650 504,242 585,739
Malt 87,163,359 77,464,096 73,625,330 86,511,761
1/Includes commercial and donated.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on ideas of improving weather in Spring Wheat areas and on the expanding harvest in Winter Wheat areas. HRW markets are feeling harvest pressure and traders in that market are hearing about big production. SRW yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter. Protein levels for HRW should be lower than normal due to the rains. Rains are improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. USDA noted the improving conditions in its Monday reports Additional rains are in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is harvest time for Winter crops in these areas as well. Conditions are reported to be very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, but scattered showers redevelop this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 499 September. Support is at 499, 494, and 491 September, with resistance at 512, 517, and 519 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 432, 425, and 418 September, with resistance at 452, 463, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 534 September. Support is at 529, 524, and 521 September, and resistance is at 543, 546, and 552 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower on ideas of improving crop conditions and on fund selling. The daily charts show that a bear flag was completed and that futures moved lower in line with projections from the flag formation. The weather is improving in Rice country as it finally seems to be turning warmer and drier. The crop condition showed slight improvement last night and the progress in general is good. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. Western areas could get some rains from a tropical system over the next few days. June rains were less than average this year and even some cities are worried that they can run out of water unless the rains get significantly better. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1125, 1108, and 1103 September. Support is at 1126, 1118, and 1111 September, with resistance at 1134, 1140, and 1146 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 3
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.15 8.16 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.65 8.73 0.00
Brokens 7.93 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on fund related buying after failing to close a gap on the daily charts. The trends have turned down, but the market could continue to bounce as it waits for more information about the Corn crop this year. The trade is still talking about the planted area data from USDA and many think the estimate is wrong. USDA could be one of those thinking that the planted area is too large as they said on Friday that they will resurvey producers in fourteen states to see what actually got done. The new results will be available for the August report and until then the market will have to use the data it has now. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. Either way, near perfect weather is now needed to make a good crop this year. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the week seems to be improved as warmer conditions are forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 394 September. Support is at 413, 405, and 400 September, and resistance is at 425, 433, and 442 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 298 September. Support is at 278, 275, and 270 September, and resistance is at 288, 291, and 296 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on follow through selling tied to the USDA reports last Friday. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. Planting progress should get better now as the weather is turning drier in the Midwest. The last of the planting should be done by the end of the holiday weekend. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. Trump and Xi met at the G-20 and declared a truce in the trade war. Trump told the market to expect improved demand for agricultural goods from China, but China is not likely to buy much in feed grains or oilseeds due to the Swine Flu. It could become a massive buyer of pork and other meat products. The trade is also still about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. It will probably take years for the US to get the lost market share back.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 856 August. Support is at 871, 865, and 855 August, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 903 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 303.00 August. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 316.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2780 and 2720 August. Support is at 2780, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2870 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on fund selling in sympathy with weak chart patterns and Chicago price action. The weather is mixed, with many areas still dry and crops getting stressed, but some areas in the southwest parts getting some rains this week. Palm Oil was a little lower again on ideas of weaker demand and ideas of strong production. The amount of trading was lower before the USDA reports today and the G-20 meetings this weekend. The outside markets were lower. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 448.00, 444.00, and 442.00 November, with resistance at 457.00, 459.00, and 463.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1980, 2010, and 2020 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation off and on all week from scattered showers and storms, mostly north and central areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +49 Sep +153 Sep +40 Sep +46 Aug N/A N/A
August +45 Sep +50 Sep +48 Aug
September +48 Sep +60 Sep +3=5 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July +150 Aug +10 Aug +70 Aug
August +160 Aug +10 Aug +80 Aug
September +140 Sep +10 Sep +100 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 2
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 2 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, July 2
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 437.90 -14.10 July 2019 dn 11.90
Track Thunder Bay 451.20 – 0.00 Nov 2019 dn 4.70
Track Vancouver 461.20 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 4.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 490.00 _02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 495.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 495.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 500.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 475.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 360.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,900 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 133 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1350)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 104,496 lots, or 3.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,380 3,380 3,380 0 0 0
Sep-19 3,388 3,413 3,381 3,411 3,382 3,399 17 91,564 141,510
Nov-19 3,474 3,499 3,463 3,499 3,464 3,481 17 38 170
Jan-20 3,395 3,414 3,391 3,414 3,398 3,404 6 9,688 51,524
Mar-20 – – – 3,406 3,406 3,406 0 0 30
May-20 3,505 3,510 3,490 3,505 3,491 3,501 10 3,206 23,454
Corn
Turnover: 562,628 lots, or 11.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,895 1,895 1,895 1,895 1,887 1,895 8 10,000 16,920
Sep-19 1,935 1,941 1,933 1,939 1,932 1,938 6 343,992 916,528
Nov-19 1,958 1,968 1,958 1,966 1,956 1,965 9 85,768 352,564
Jan-20 1,989 1,999 1,988 1,996 1,987 1,994 7 109,966 545,934
Mar-20 2,008 2,015 2,008 2,014 2,006 2,012 6 90 2,376
May-20 2,052 2,060 2,052 2,058 2,051 2,056 5 12,812 95,898
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,147,778 lots, or 60.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,764 2,779 2,763 2,779 2,826 2,775 -51 812 412
Aug-19 2,803 2,812 2,782 2,803 2,824 2,796 -28 6,204 5,468
Sep-19 2,820 2,826 2,794 2,818 2,843 2,811 -32 1,664,490 1,814,266
Nov-19 2,849 2,859 2,828 2,847 2,878 2,845 -33 126,764 192,740
Dec-19 2,832 2,861 2,832 2,852 2,881 2,847 -34 160 854
Jan-20 2,863 2,871 2,839 2,859 2,889 2,854 -35 266,758 526,694
Mar-20 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,817 2,800 -17 2 772
May-20 2,759 2,764 2,746 2,753 2,764 2,754 -10 82,588 194,698
Palm Oil
Turnover: 656,074 lots, or 28.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0
Aug-19 4,322 4,322 4,146 4,146 4,174 4,234 60 4 2
Sep-19 4,274 4,282 4,214 4,230 4,274 4,238 -36 556,138 654,492
Oct-19 – – – 4,330 4,366 4,330 -36 0 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,474 4,474 4,474 0 0 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,440 4,476 4,440 -36 0 10
Jan-20 4,488 4,508 4,460 4,470 4,488 4,478 -10 88,358 214,314
Feb-20 – – – 4,490 4,490 4,490 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,618 4,618 4,618 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,654 4,664 4,654 -10 0 2
May-20 4,694 4,724 4,680 4,696 4,704 4,694 -10 11,574 18,352
Jun-20 – – – 4,730 4,730 4,730 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 478,258 lots, or 25.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 0
Aug-19 5,262 5,262 5,262 5,262 5,212 5,262 50 2 32
Sep-19 5,438 5,452 5,370 5,410 5,422 5,400 -22 387,600 741,952
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,576 5,576 5,576 0 0 12
Jan-20 5,592 5,614 5,534 5,572 5,586 5,564 -22 86,012 237,102
Mar-20 5,612 5,612 5,612 5,612 5,638 5,612 -26 2 10
May-20 5,710 5,726 5,646 5,678 5,694 5,676 -18 4,642 22,332
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322