Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 30-Jun 23-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 37 30 41 39
Cotton Setting Bolls 7 3 11 9
Corn Emerged 94 89 100 100
Soybeans Planted 92 85 100 99
Soybeans Emerged 83 71 98 95
Sorghum Planted 94 84 98 96
Sorghum Headed 20 17 22 23
Rice Headed 10 5 14 15
Peanuts Pegging 47 34 42 38
Oats Headed 58 43 80 81
Winter Wheat Headed 97 94 100 100
Winter Wheat Harvested 30 15 50 48
Spring Wheat Headed 25 7 55 52
Barley Headed 31 9 47 52
Sunflowers Planted 95 85 94 95
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 13 30 45 7
Cotton Last Week 4 13 33 45 5
Cotton Last Year 6 18 33 36 7
Corn This Week 3 9 32 47 9
Corn Last Week 3 9 32 48 8
Corn Last Year 2 4 18 55 21
Soybeans This Week 2 9 35 47 7
Soybeans Last Week 2 8 36 47 7
Soybeans Last Year 1 5 23 55 16
Sorghum This Week 0 2 25 63 10
Sorghum Last Week 0 3 25 61 11
Sorghum Last Year 3 12 32 49 4
Rice This Week 1 4 27 54 14
Rice Last Week 1 6 27 52 14
Rice Last Year 0 5 24 56 15
Oats This Week 2 5 28 56 9
Oats Last Week 2 5 29 56 8
Oats Last Year 3 3 21 60 13
Peanuts This Week 1 5 26 60 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 28 62 5
Peanuts Last Year 0 3 30 59 8
Barley This Week 1 4 23 64 8
Barley Last Week 1 4 23 64 8
Barley Last Year 1 2 13 66 18
Winter Wheat This Week 3 7 27 48 15
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 8 28 46 15
Winter Wheat Last Year 15 19 29 28 9
Spring Wheat This Week 1 3 21 67 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 3 22 67 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 18 64 13
Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 5 24 55 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 29 41 10
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in response to the USDA reports on Friday that showed less Cotton area. Cotton found support today from statements made by both sides after the weekend that Trump has suspended the new round of tariffs on Chinese goods. Hopes are that an agreement is not far away, but the details will still be difficult. Crop progress remains very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but Texas conditions deteriorated once again in the Monday reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts, but futures have held support and now look prepared to try to turn trends up or at least probe the upper end of the trading range again. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. June rains are less than normal this year. Some forecasts say that the monsoon will fade early this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, but parts of the Southeast could see some showers over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.26 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 74,351 bales, from 76,992 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 233 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6620, 6550, and 6530 December, with resistance of 6760, 6790, and 6860 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again and the market is still featuring choppy trading in a range. It seems now that the market could take another leg lower. There are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, with resistance at 107.00, 110.00, and 115.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and in London as more forecasters started calling for cold temperatures that could possibly damage crops this weekend or early next week. The threat of damage is possible but has been harder in recent years as producers moved out of colder areas like Parana in the last 20 years. There was bad weather at flowering time and the harvest is reporting low yields and quality, anyway. The chart patterns remain very positive. There is now a lot of talk that production will be much less than 50 million bags. CONAB has estimated production just above 50 million bags in its latest reports. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.370 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.58 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today, then chances for light showers with near to below normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 544 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 122.00 September. Support is at 108.00, 106.00, and 105.00 September, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00 and 120.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1480, 1530, and 1580 September. Support is at 1440, 1430, and 1410 September, and resistance is at 1490, 1510, and 1530 September.
DJ Uganda 8-Month Coffee Exports Drop 5% on Year
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA Uganda–Uganda’s eight-month coffee exports dropped 5% on year as farmers continue to hoard stocks, citing low farm gate prices, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Tuesday.
Shipments dropped to 2.8 million 60-kilogram bags in the first eight months of the 2018-19 coffee year, from 2.95 million a year earlier, the industry body said. The coffee export value also dropped 14% to $279 million after farmers withheld stocks in anticipation of better prices. Uganda’s coffee year runs from October to September the following year.
“Some of the factors that led to the drop were low global prices on account of higher global coffee supply which affected export prices and the after effect of the dry weather south of the equator in 2018,” the UCDA said.
Coffee exports in May, the peak month for the harvest in the key west and southern growing regions however jumped 9% to 348,632 compared with the same month last season. The increase was attributable to higher yields from the harvest and maturing plantations. Robusta exports in the first eight months rose 1.3% to 2.1 million bags while Arabica exports dropped 20% to 680,450 bags.
The continuing drop in Arabica exports is attributable to low production due to a lower-yield tree cycle, typical of Arabica coffee, where by a bumper crop is followed by a smaller harvest.
The bitter-tasting robusta coffee variety, used mainly in blends and instant drinks accounts for over 70% of Uganda’s coffee output.
UCDA projects 2018-19 coffee output to rise 10% to 5.1 million bags, boosted by favorable weather and maturing plantations.
DJ Brazil 2020 Coffee Harvest Will Be Hurt By Lack of Crop Care, Bad Weather — CNC
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazil’s arabica coffee crop in 2020 will be smaller than many in markets are expecting because of unfavorable weather in 2019 and a lack of proper care of coffee trees, according to Silas Brasileiro, president of Brazil’s National Coffee Council, or CNC.
The price of the arabica variety hit a more than 10-year low earlier this year, and is still near multi-year lows, as producing countries including Brazil have grown bigger and bigger crops. Record exports from Brazil have helped push prices down in world markets.
The low price for coffee on global markets has meant coffee farmers in Brazil and other countries have less money to invest in fertilizers and other care for their trees, which will reduce yields in coming years, Mr. Brasileiro said Monday.
“In 2019, the trees haven’t been well cared for, because farmers don’t have the resources to do it,” he said. “If you look at Central America, Colombia, Africa–it’s the same situation everywhere.”
Brazil has a two-year growth cycle for the arabica variety of coffee, with even-numbered years producing larger harvests, then smaller crops in odd-numbered years while the plants “rest.” Mr. Brasileiro declined to give a forecast for Brazil’s 2020 production, but said the harvest could even be smaller than last year’s.
In 2018, Brazil grew a record 47.5 million 132-pound bags of arabica coffee, an almost 10% increase over 2016, and analysts’ expectations for a bigger crop in Brazil next year are part of what’s weighing on prices this year, according to Guilherme Ferreira, a coffee consultant for INTL FCStone.
“If we don’t have any climate issues, whatever they might be, we could have a record crop in 2020,” he said. “But there might be a frost this weekend in some areas, which could affect next year.”
While the lack of money to pay for plant care is affecting most of the world’s coffee growers, bad weather in Brazil so far this year is also going to hit production next year, the CNC’s Mr. Brasileiro said.
Parts of Brazil were hit by high temperatures at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019, and unusually heavy rains in May will also have negative effects on next year’s crop, Mr. Brasileiro said.
“We never had so much rain into May before, that’s a big question mark” regarding production next year, he said.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower and could not hold early gains. The market tried to rally in the early morning but could not hold the gains. The deliveries in New York were a record, but ideas are that the stoppers were commercial and would use the deliveries to obtain Sugar normally available but now being used for Ethanol. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage but remains behind average and rains are below average for the month. Many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Water supplies are low so good monsoon rains will be needed. The lower rains are viewed with alarm in cities as well as some people living in cities could run out of water. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India has always been willing to dump agricultural goods such as Rice and Sugar at below cost prices, so the market began to anticipate improved sales from mills and exporters there. Harvest conditions remain good in Brazil. Brazilian processors prefer to make Ethanol for the domestic market rather than Sugar for the export market. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather today, hen some light showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. ICE said that 41,488 contracts were posted for delivery for July.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1290, 1300, and 1320 October. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1200 October, and resistance is at 1280, 1290, and 1310 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 329.00, 325.00, and 323.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 338.00, and 340.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed higher but remains in the recent trading range. There has not been any news recently to support bullish traders, but the market has not really been able to break much. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now 2.098 million tons, from 1.884 million last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.477 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 610 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2450, and 2420 September, with resistance at 2510, 2540, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1810 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.