About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Recap for Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles & U.S. Planted Acreage
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s June 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2019 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range June 1 2018 Mar 2019
Corn 5,308 5,099-5,497 5,305 8,605
Soybeans 1,856 1,700-1,962 1,219 2,716
Wheat 1,092 1,021-1,113 1,099 1,591
***
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage USDA
(million acres) Average Range March 2018
Corn 87.026 84.3-88.8 92.792 89.129
Soybeans 84.592 83.0-86.5 84.617 89.196
All Wheat 45.674 45.0-46.1 45.754 47.800
Winter Wheat 31.480 30.8-31.7 31.504 32.535
Spring Wheat 12.613 12.0-13.0 12.830 13.200
Durum Wheat 1.473 1.3-1.8 1.420 2.065

DJ USDA Report: Summary for June Acreage
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean
Stockpiles Friday and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range March 2018
Corn 91.700 87.026 84.3-88.8 92.792 89.129
Soybeans 80.040 84.592 83.0-86.5 84.617 89.196
All Wheat 45.609 45.674 45.0-46.1 45.754 47.800
Winter Wheat 31.778 31.480 30.8-31.7 31.504 32.535
Spring Wheat 12.430 12.613 12.0-13.0 12.830 13.200
Durum Wheat 1.401 1.473 1.3-1.8 1.420 2.065

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean
Stockpiles Friday and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2019 (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range Jun 1 2018 Mar 1 2019
Corn 5,202 5,308 5,099-5,497 5,305 8,613
Soybeans 1,790 1,856 1,700-1,962 1,219 2,727
Wheat 1,072 1,092 1,021-1,113 1,099 1,593

Crop Progress
Date 30-Jun 23-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 37 30 41 39
Cotton Setting Bolls 7 3 11 9
Corn Emerged 94 89 100 100
Soybeans Planted 92 85 100 99
Soybeans Emerged 83 71 98 95
Sorghum Planted 94 84 98 96
Sorghum Headed 20 17 22 23
Rice Headed 10 5 14 15
Peanuts Pegging 47 34 42 38
Oats Headed 58 43 80 81
Winter Wheat Headed 97 94 100 100
Winter Wheat Harvested 30 15 50 48
Spring Wheat Headed 25 7 55 52
Barley Headed 31 9 47 52
Sunflowers Planted 95 85 94 95

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 13 30 45 7
Cotton Last Week 4 13 33 45 5
Cotton Last Year 6 18 33 36 7

Corn This Week 3 9 32 47 9
Corn Last Week 3 9 32 48 8
Corn Last Year 2 4 18 55 21

Soybeans This Week 2 9 35 47 7
Soybeans Last Week 2 8 36 47 7
Soybeans Last Year 1 5 23 55 16

Sorghum This Week 0 2 25 63 10
Sorghum Last Week 0 3 25 61 11
Sorghum Last Year 3 12 32 49 4

Rice This Week 1 4 27 54 14
Rice Last Week 1 6 27 52 14
Rice Last Year 0 5 24 56 15

Oats This Week 2 5 28 56 9
Oats Last Week 2 5 29 56 8
Oats Last Year 3 3 21 60 13

Peanuts This Week 1 5 26 60 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 28 62 5
Peanuts Last Year 0 3 30 59 8

Barley This Week 1 4 23 64 8
Barley Last Week 1 4 23 64 8
Barley Last Year 1 2 13 66 18

Winter Wheat This Week 3 7 27 48 15
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 8 28 46 15
Winter Wheat Last Year 15 19 29 28 9

Spring Wheat This Week 1 3 21 67 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 3 22 67 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 18 64 13

Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 5 24 55 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 29 41 10

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 1
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 27, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/27/2019 06/20/2019 06/28/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 857 709 1,053 807
CORN 272,513 617,740 1,538,556 41,747,380 45,760,546
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 24 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 100 299 1,098
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 56,255 112,816 9,416 1,638,429 4,771,093
SOYBEANS 719,299 731,812 850,084 37,100,539 49,674,809
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 609,037 433,314 324,548 1,895,787 1,482,789
Total 1,657,104 1,896,563 2,723,413 82,383,511 101,691,190
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
5 YR TREASURY NOTE June Jul. 03, 2019 405 Jun 28, 2019
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 03, 2019 541 Jul 01, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 03, 2019 1447 Jul 01, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 03, 2019 12 Jun 27, 2019
CORN July Jul. 03, 2019 1887 Jun 21, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 03, 2019 5 Apr 24, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 03, 2019 5 Jun 11, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on ideas of improving weather in Spring Wheat areas and on the expanding harvest in Winter Wheat areas. HRW markets are feeling harvest pressure and traders in that market are hearing about big production. It is finally turning drier in the Midwest so the SRW Wheat harvest should get underway. Yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter that probably caused Winterkill in addition to the rains that are causing diseases to break out. Protein levels for both HRW and SRW crops should be lower than normal due to the rains. Meanwhile, rains have improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Additional rains are in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is harvest time for Winter crops in these areas as well. Conditions are reported to be very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, but scattered showers redevelop this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 499 September. Support is at 509, 499, and 494 September, with resistance at 519, 528, and 535 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 437 September. Support is at 441, 433, and 425 September, with resistance at 452, 463, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 534 September. Support is at 541, 538, and 529 September, and resistance is at 552, 556, and 558 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower on ideas of improving crop conditions. The export sales report last week was very strong. The report was strong for all Rice and featured mostly Long Grain sales in the Western Hemisphere and into the Middle East. The weather is improving in Rice country as it finally seems to be turning warmer and drier. The crop condition showed slight improvement last night and the progress in general is good. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. June rains were less than average this year and even some cities are worried that they can run out of water unless the rains get significantly better. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1146, 1140, and 1134 September, with resistance at 1164, 1169, and 1172 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on follow through fund selling from the crop reports on Friday. The trade is still talking about the planted area data from USDA and many think the estimate is wrong. USDA could be one of those thinking that the planted area is too large as they said on Friday that they will resurvey producers in fourteen states to see what actually got done. The new results will be available for the August report and until then the market will have to use the data it has now. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. Either way, near perfect weather is now needed to make a good crop this year. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the week seems to be improved as warmer and drier conditions are forecast. The stocks report showed slightly less than expected supplies but there is still Corn in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 394 September. Support is at 413, 405, and 400 September, and resistance is at 425, 433, and 442 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 298 September. Support is at 278, 275, and 270 September, and resistance is at 288, 291, and 296 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on follow through selling tied to the USDA reports last Friday. USDA issued its crop progress and condition reports today, and the condition and progress did not improve as much as the trade had expected. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. Planting progress should get better now as the weather is turning drier in the Midwest. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. Trump and Xi met at the G-20 and declared a truce in the trade war. Trump told the market to expect improved demand for agricultural goods from China, but China is not likely to buy much in feed grains or oilseeds due to the Swine Flu. It could become a massive buyer of pork and other meat products. The trade is also still about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. It will probably take years for the US to get the lost market share back.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 881 and 856 August. Support is at 884, 881, and 871 August, and resistance is at 903, 909, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 303.00 August. Support is at 306.00, 304.00, and 300.00 August, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 316.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2780 and 2720 August. Support is at 2780, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2870 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for a holiday. Trudeau is in Japan now and the trade issues with China will be something he hopes to make a lot of progress on. China has now banned all meat imports from Canada due to the problems with the Huawei executive held in Canada for extradition to the US. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand and ideas of strong production. The amount of trading was lower before the USDA reports today and the G-20 meetings this weekend. The outside markets were lower. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 451.00, 448.00, and 444.00 November, with resistance at 457.00, 459.00, and 463.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1950, 1940, and 1910 September, with resistance at 1980, 2010, and 2020 September.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 28
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 23, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2322.0 615.6 117.2 275.9 42.3 946.1 238.2 303.9 5557.5
Week Ago 2271.1 694.1 119.5 271.6 52.5 1022.8 254.9 337.1 5708.5
Year Ago 2080.8 536.3 160.9 268.4 64.1 1018.0 328.6 143.6 5150.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 366.4 97.1 20.3 35.2 2.6 312.9 47.8 12.2 963.6
Week Ago 369.6 130.4 22.5 44.9 3.2 379.8 54.4 14.1 1080.0
To Date 19529.8 4197.8 1959.6 3189.7 363.8 16511.8 3086.8 518.3 52948.1
Year Ago 16704.6 3536.0 1971.5 2860.4 428.3 17414.4 2748.4 581.9 50097.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 394.6 131.5 18.2 17.2 10.0 171.9 44.1 40.4 901.2
Week Ago 406.9 122.0 4.0 7.1 9.6 169.7 67.0 45.7 894.1
To Date 18846.0 4640.0 405.7 1926.7 154.2 8943.2 1869.5 1343.7 44161.2
Year Ago 16316.3 3889.9 212.4 1644.0 196.4 9862.2 1760.6 1107.0 40596.6
EXPORTS
This Week 394.2 145.4 24.5 10.4 10.5 184.8 41.4 70.0 940.3
Week Ago 329.3 90.3 10.7 1.4 11.9 223.1 103.5 52.3 858.2
To Date 16646.2 4045.5 1427.1 2081.2 245.6 8456.1 1910.2 1649.3 40788.8
Year Ago 14767.1 3517.5 1405.3 1748.8 275.8 9355.5 1867.5 1138.1 38160.8
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 60.3 2.6 4.7 24.1 0.7 221.6 4.2 26.3 370.2
Week Ago 82.8 13.0 8.4 21.9 0.7 165.6 2.8 25.8 338.9
To Date 3688.5 319.9 281.5 1043.6 52.9 8494.1 191.3 1062.5 17115.9
Year Ago 4234.4 674.4 277.9 1124.0 51.3 8414.1 207.4 781.9 18063.8
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation off and on all week from scattered showers and storms, mostly north and central areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 Sep +159 Sep +40 Sep +46 Aug N/A N/A
August +46 Sep +50 Sep +48 Aug
September +50 Sep +60 Sep +31 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July +140 Aug +5 Aug +70 Aug
August +150 Aug +5 Aug +80 Aug
September +150 Sep +5 Sep +100 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 27
ICE Canola Cash Close
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, June 27
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 427.80 -13.00 July 2019 dn 3.10
Track Thunder Bay 452.00 – 0.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.80
Track Vancouver 462.00 10.00 Nov 2019 up 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 475.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 365.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,920 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 135 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1370)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 94,490 lots, or 3.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,380 3,380 3,380 0 0 0
Sep-19 3,390 3,397 3,372 3,389 3,410 3,382 -28 82,108 154,240
Nov-19 3,473 3,473 3,455 3,464 3,468 3,464 -4 12 168
Jan-20 3,412 3,416 3,389 3,396 3,417 3,398 -19 9,128 51,932
Mar-20 3,422 3,422 3,391 3,391 3,458 3,406 -52 4 30
May-20 3,522 3,522 3,482 3,494 3,508 3,491 -17 3,238 22,700
Corn
Turnover: 576,750 lots, or 11.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,883 1,885 1,881 1,885 1,900 1,887 -13 2,328 16,920
Sep-19 1,938 1,939 1,929 1,934 1,937 1,932 -5 330,082 961,436
Nov-19 1,964 1,965 1,955 1,958 1,967 1,956 -11 104,926 352,536
Jan-20 1,995 1,996 1,984 1,988 1,995 1,987 -8 121,804 548,346
Mar-20 2,012 2,014 2,004 2,004 2,015 2,006 -9 252 2,420
May-20 2,053 2,059 2,049 2,050 2,060 2,051 -9 17,358 91,536
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,623,376 lots, or 74.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 2,826 2,826 2,826 0 0 612
Aug-19 2,867 2,867 2,800 2,804 2,872 2,824 -48 9,710 6,804
Sep-19 2,869 2,877 2,815 2,822 2,882 2,843 -39 2,083,646 1,839,394
Nov-19 2,911 2,911 2,849 2,856 2,905 2,878 -27 133,018 164,648
Dec-19 2,915 2,915 2,856 2,867 2,915 2,881 -34 102 842
Jan-20 2,908 2,921 2,863 2,872 2,914 2,889 -25 322,052 522,924
Mar-20 2,828 2,828 2,797 2,813 2,817 2,817 0 52 772
May-20 2,777 2,787 2,749 2,764 2,770 2,764 -6 74,796 192,102
Palm Oil
Turnover: 516,842 lots, or 22.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 4,174 4,174 4,174 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,296 4,304 4,258 4,262 4,290 4,274 -16 421,546 631,626
Oct-19 4,384 4,384 4,350 4,350 4,386 4,366 -20 4 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,474 4,474 4,474 0 0 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,476 4,476 4,476 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,500 4,508 4,476 4,488 4,494 4,488 -6 89,152 219,590
Feb-20 – – – 4,490 4,490 4,490 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,618 4,618 4,618 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,664 4,670 4,664 -6 0 2
May-20 4,712 4,714 4,694 4,708 4,702 4,704 2 6,134 14,040
Jun-20 4,728 4,738 4,728 4,728 4,806 4,730 -76 6 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 476,110 lots, or 25.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 5,212 5,212 5,212 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,438 5,446 5,392 5,430 5,412 5,422 10 377,094 712,946
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,482 5,492 10 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,576 5,566 5,576 10 0 12
Jan-20 5,600 5,612 5,552 5,592 5,570 5,586 16 94,560 231,356
Mar-20 5,642 5,642 5,636 5,636 5,638 5,638 0 4 12
May-20 5,716 5,766 5,666 5,710 5,702 5,694 -8 4,452 19,976
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322