Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in response to another week of bad export sales. Wire reports indicate that Trump and Xi would try to find a way to close the last part of a trade deal and finally get the job done in the G-20 meetings getting underway now. There is a long way to go for an agreement and it is not likely that these differences can be resolved in the net couple of days. Support is also coming from more reports of growing problems in the Texas Panhandle, where there has been too much rain and cold weather. The crop progress has been very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but Texas conditions deteriorated in the Monday reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts, but futures have held support and now look prepared to try to turn trends up or at least probe the upper end of the trading range again. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. June rains are less than normal this year. Some forecasts say that the monsoon will fade early this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, but parts of the Southeast could see some showers over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.28 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 76,992 bales, from 96,794 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 233 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6550, 6530, and 6470 December, with resistance of 6760, 6790, and 6860 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 27
As of Jun 21. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 19 206 5,933 -5,727 482 4,929 -4,447
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 32,797 29,971 2,826 38,653 39,182 -529
Mar 20 21,182 20,721 461 3,344 3,225 119
May 20 8,364 8,030 334 431 431 0
Jul 20 13,449 13,123 326 1,925 1,925 0
Dec 20 6,563 6,886 -323 12,815 13,007 -192
Mar 21 2,180 2,381 -201 574 574 0
May 21 637 641 -4 0 0 0
Jul 21 261 394 -133 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 331 -331 331 331 0
Total 85,639 88,411 -2,772 58,555 63,604 -5,049
Jul 19 396 26,765 -26,369
Oct 19 186 82 104
Dec 19 132,381 129,873 2,508
Mar 20 25,804 21,141 4,663
May 20 3,563 2,752 811
Jul 20 3,966 3,753 213
Dec 20 9,308 8,851 457
Mar 21 205 206 -1
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 0 0
Total 175,809 193,423 -17,614
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower again and the market is still featuring choppy trading in a range. There are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 106.00, 107.00, and 110.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in both New York and a little lower in London. The chart patterns remain very positive. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. There is now a lot of talk that production will be much less than 50 million bags. CONAB has estimated production just above 50 million bags in its latest reports. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.379 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.06 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 544 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 110.00 and 122.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 101.00 September, and resistance is at 108.00, 110.00 and 113.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1480, 1530, and 1580 September. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1380 September, and resistance is at 1470, 1490, and 1510 September.
General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher and New York posted a reversal day. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage but remains behind average and rains are below average for the moth. <any private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Water supplies are low so good monsoon rains will be needed. The lower rains are viewed with alarm in cities as well as some people living in cities could run out of water. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India has always been willing to dump agricultural goods such as Rice and Sugar at below cost prices, so the market began to anticipate improved sales from mills and exporters there. Harvest conditions remain good in Brazil. Brazilian processors prefer to make Ethanol for the domestic market rather than Sugar for the export market. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1290, 1300, and 1320 October. Support is at 1260, 1230, and 1210 October, and resistance is at 1280, 1290, and 1310 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 325.00, 323.00, and 320.00 October, and resistance is at 329.00, 336.00, and 340.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower and overall price action remains weak. There has not been any news recently to support bullish traders and some are now liquidating due to the changing chart patters. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.519 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 610 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2370 September. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2380 September, with resistance at 2500, 2510, and 2540 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1870 September.