Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Report: Recap for Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles & U.S. Planted Acreage
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s June 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2019 (million bushels)
Average Range June 1 2018 Mar 2019
Corn 5,308 5,099-5,497 5,305 8,605
Soybeans 1,856 1,700-1,962 1,219 2,716
Wheat 1,092 1,021-1,113 1,099 1,591
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage USDA
(million acres) Average Range March 2018
Corn 87.026 84.3-88.8 92.792 89.129
Soybeans 84.592 83.0-86.5 84.617 89.196
All Wheat 45.674 45.0-46.1 45.754 47.800
Winter Wheat 31.480 30.8-31.7 31.504 32.535
Spring Wheat 12.613 12.0-13.0 12.830 13.200
Durum Wheat 1.473 1.3-1.8 1.420 2.065
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jun 28
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 01, 2019 745 Jun 17, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 01, 2019 1711 Jun 24, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 01, 2019 721 Jun 27, 2019
CORN July Jul. 01, 2019 790 Apr 22, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 01, 2019 5 Dec 19, 2018
OATS July Jul. 01, 2019 2 Jun 27, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 01, 2019 5 Oct 22, 2018
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed as the market heard more harvest results and also prepared for the reports today. The weekly export sales report was above expectations. Chicago has been the leader to the upside due to problems with the SRW crops in the Midwest from the extreme weather. Minneapolis found support on less than expected planted area in Canada. HRW markets are feeling harvest pressure and traders in that market are hearing about big production. It is finally turning drier in the Midwest so the Winter Wheat harvest should get underway soon. Yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter that probably caused Winterkill in addition to the rains that are causing diseases to break out. Protein levels for both HRW and SRW crops should be lower than normal due to the rains. Meanwhile, rains have improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Additional rains are in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is harvest time for Winter crops in these areas as well. Conditions are reported to be very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 551, 561, and 566 September. Support is at 535, 527, and 519 September, with resistance at 555, 557, and 563 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 473, 472, and 461 September, with resistance at 492, 499, and 508 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 570, 564, and 549 September, and resistance is at 568, 571, and 576 September.
General Comments: Rice was higher in response to a very strong weekly export sales report. The report was strong for all Rice and featured mostly Long Grain sales in the Western Hemisphere and into the Middle East. There could be quality loss if the rains continue. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. The better crop development has created some selling interest for the last of the old crop Rice in producer storage. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. June rains were less than average this year and even some cities are worried that they can run out of water unless the rains get significantly better. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms on Tuesday and again over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1146, 1140, and 1134 September, with resistance at 1159, 1169, and 1172 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower as the market looks ahead to the big USDA reports today. The weekly export sales report was disappointing. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks reports and planted area reports later today, and there is some concern that USDA will not be able to provide a good estimate on planted area due to all of the weather related delays this year. USDA is likely to show less planted area over time and there is also potential for yields to be cut further. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the coming week seems to be improved as warmer and drier conditions are forecast. The stocks report has shown great than expected supplies this year and it could be that production last year was underestimated or there is some bad accounting going on. The Corn stocks number could produce a bullish surprise if there were counting errors in previous updates.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 445, 442, and 440 September, and resistance is at 452, 458, and 460 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 288 and 298 September. Support is at 278, 275, and 270 September, and resistance is at 283, 288, and 291 September.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower as the market looked ahead to the reports today and reacted to weak export sales in the weekly reports yesterday. The market expects big supplies in the quarterly stocks estimate and big planted area as planting of the Soybeans crops continues in many areas. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. Planting progress should get better now as the weather is turning drier in the Midwest. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. It seems unlikely now that lost Corn area will get planted to Soybeans as USDA is allowing cover crops to be harvested early in response to the lost Corn production. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Neither side seems ready to make a deal right now although Trump and Xi will meet today and tomorrow at the G-20 meetings to try to get talks going again. USDA will issue the quarterly stocks and planted area reports later today and the stocks should be very big due to the big production last year and the lost demand until now.
Overnight News: China bought 544,000 tons of old crop US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 881 and 856 August. Support is at 881, 871, and 865 August, and resistance is at 903, 909, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 310.00 and 303.00 August. Support is at 310.00, 306.00, and 304.00 August, and resistance is at 316.00, 317.00, and 320.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2780 and 2720 August. Support is at 2760, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2870 August.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on reports of beneficial rains in some areas over the last few days and a ramp up of trade tensions with China. Trudeau is in Japan now and the trade issues with China will be something he hopes to make a lot of progress on. China has now banned all meat imports from Canada due to the problems with the Huawei executive held in Canada for extradition to the US. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand and ideas of strong production. The amount of trading was lower before the USDA reports today and the G-20 meetings this weekend. The outside markets were lower. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 451.00, 448.00, and 444.00 November, with resistance at 457.00, 459.00, and 463.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 September, with resistance at 2010, 2020, and 2040 September.
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 28
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 23, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
This Week 2322.0 615.6 117.2 275.9 42.3 946.1 238.2 303.9 5557.5
Week Ago 2271.1 694.1 119.5 271.6 52.5 1022.8 254.9 337.1 5708.5
Year Ago 2080.8 536.3 160.9 268.4 64.1 1018.0 328.6 143.6 5150.8
This Week 366.4 97.1 20.3 35.2 2.6 312.9 47.8 12.2 963.6
Week Ago 369.6 130.4 22.5 44.9 3.2 379.8 54.4 14.1 1080.0
To Date 19529.8 4197.8 1959.6 3189.7 363.8 16511.8 3086.8 518.3 52948.1
Year Ago 16704.6 3536.0 1971.5 2860.4 428.3 17414.4 2748.4 581.9 50097.3
This Week 394.6 131.5 18.2 17.2 10.0 171.9 44.1 40.4 901.2
Week Ago 406.9 122.0 4.0 7.1 9.6 169.7 67.0 45.7 894.1
To Date 18846.0 4640.0 405.7 1926.7 154.2 8943.2 1869.5 1343.7 44161.2
Year Ago 16316.3 3889.9 212.4 1644.0 196.4 9862.2 1760.6 1107.0 40596.6
This Week 394.2 145.4 24.5 10.4 10.5 184.8 41.4 70.0 940.3
Week Ago 329.3 90.3 10.7 1.4 11.9 223.1 103.5 52.3 858.2
To Date 16646.2 4045.5 1427.1 2081.2 245.6 8456.1 1910.2 1649.3 40788.8
Year Ago 14767.1 3517.5 1405.3 1748.8 275.8 9355.5 1867.5 1138.1 38160.8
This Week 60.3 2.6 4.7 24.1 0.7 221.6 4.2 26.3 370.2
Week Ago 82.8 13.0 8.4 21.9 0.7 165.6 2.8 25.8 338.9
To Date 3688.5 319.9 281.5 1043.6 52.9 8494.1 191.3 1062.5 17115.9
Year Ago 4234.4 674.4 277.9 1124.0 51.3 8414.1 207.4 781.9 18063.8
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (firstname.lastname@example.org, or 204-414-9084)
Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas today, then drier. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +80 July +170 July +78 July +65 July N/A N/A
July +50 July +80 July +50 July
August +45 September +65 September +45 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July -20 August
August 108 August -16 August 40 September
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 27
ICE Canola Cash Close
WINNIPEG, June 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, June 27
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 427.80 -13.00 July 2019 dn 3.10
Track Thunder Bay 452.00 – 0.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.80
Track Vancouver 462.00 10.00 Nov 2019 up 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 470.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 362.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,900 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 133 -01.00 Unquoted – –