About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian 2019/20 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2019/20
estimates of principal field crop area report. The figures are
as of June 11, 2019, in thousands of acres. Source: Statistics
Canada.
——acres——-
2019/20 2019/20 2018/19
June March
Barley 7,402 7,155 6,493
Edible Beans 351 325 353
Canary Seed 188 229 212
Canola 20,952 21,314 22,813
Chickpeas 384 334 443
Corn for grain 3,694 3,795 3,627
Fababeans 59 122 78
Flaxseed 937 1,000 857
Hemp 83 87 41
Lentils 3,778 3,405 3,768
Mixed grains 359 332 356
Mustard seed 399 416 504
Oats 3,606 3,291 3,053
Peas, dry 4,333 4,036 3,615
Rye 431 431 335
Soybeans 5,714 5,646 6,320
Sugar beets 37 n/a 47
Summerfallow 1,729 1,792 1,781
Sunflower seed 56 71 71
Total wheat 24,595 25,674 24,735
Durum wheat 4,894 5,021 6,185
Spring wheat 18,772 19,387 17,310
Winter wheat 929 1,265 1,238
*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter
wheat remaining after winterkill
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ USDA Report: Recap for Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles & U.S. Planted Acreage
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s June 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2019 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range June 1 2018 Mar 2019
Corn 5,308 5,099-5,497 5,305 8,605
Soybeans 1,856 1,700-1,962 1,219 2,716
Wheat 1,092 1,021-1,113 1,099 1,591
***
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage USDA
(million acres) Average Range March 2018
Corn 87.026 84.3-88.8 92.792 89.129
Soybeans 84.592 83.0-86.5 84.617 89.196
All Wheat 45.674 45.0-46.1 45.754 47.800
Winter Wheat 31.480 30.8-31.7 31.504 32.535
Spring Wheat 12.613 12.0-13.0 12.830 13.200
Durum Wheat 1.473 1.3-1.8 1.420 2.065

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 27
For the week ended Jun 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 612.0 0.0 6947.7 5551.9 5718.1 0.0
hrw 222.0 0.0 2821.9 1332.1 2134.4 0.0
srw 55.8 0.0 997.3 660.2 945.7 0.0
hrs 161.1 0.0 1692.0 1847.5 1393.7 0.0
white 156.9 0.0 1208.1 1584.8 1070.4 0.0
durum 16.3 0.0 228.4 127.4 173.9 0.0
corn 294.9 110.1 48740.0 57252.6 6143.6 3178.9
soybeans 168.2 319.6 47658.5 56730.3 10544.2 2314.4
soymeal 28.7 41.0 11256.7 11375.2 2551.7 682.4
soyoil 19.2 0.0 785.2 931.3 153.0 4.2
upland cotton 72.0 45.3 15121.1 16166.2 3828.3 3999.4
pima cotton 5.2 3.3 725.7 636.2 136.1 58.2
sorghum -3.4 0.0 1558.6 5160.1 301.5 0.0
barley 0.3 0.0 50.8 48.9 48.6 0.0
rice 96.7 16.4 3329.0 2906.4 538.4 65.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the market heard more harvest results and also prepared for the reports on Friday. Some buying interest was seen due to the StatsCan report that showed less than expected planted area. High yields are being reported for the HRW crop and this is as it should be as the region saw a lot of rain during the growing season. It is finally turning drier in the Midwest so the Winter Wheat harvest should get underway soon. Yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter that probably caused Winterkill in addition to the rains that are causing diseases to break out. Protein levels for both HRW and SRW crops should be lower than normal due to the rains. Meanwhile, rains have improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Additional rains are in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is harvest time for Winter crops in these areas as well. Conditions are reported to be very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 540, 532, and 529 July, with resistance at 545, 551, and 556 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 462, 458, and 450 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 487 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 545, 541, and 535 July, and resistance is at 555, 560, and 563 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower again yesterday on ideas of good growing conditions and weaker demand. There were more big rains near Houston, but crops there were in flood and are heading now, so the potential for yield loss is low. There could be quality loss if the rains continue. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. The better crop development has created some selling interest for the last of the old crop Rice in producer storage. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms on Tuesday and again over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1072 and 1051 July. Support is at 1095, 1089, and 1082 July, with resistance at 1115, 1138, and 1146 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the market looks ahead to the big USDA reports on Friday. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks reports and planted area reports on Friday, and there is some concern that USDA will not be able to provide a good estimate on planted area due to all of the weather related delays this year. USDA is likely to show less planted area over time and there is also potential for yields to be cut further. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the coming week seems to be improved as warmer and drier conditions are forecast. The stocks report has shown great than expected supplies this year and it could be that production last year was underestimated or there is some bac accounting going on. The Corn stocks number could produce a bullish surprise if there were counting errors in previous updates.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.072 million barrels per day this week, from 1.081 million last week. Ethanol stocks were unchanged from last week at 21.6 million barrels this week and 21.7 million last year. Ethanol production used 109.2 million bushels of Corn this week, from 110.2 million last week and 110.0 million last year. Total Corn use is 4.424 billion bushels this year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 440, 437, and 431 July, and resistance is at 447, 454, and 457 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 262 July. Support is at 268, 264, and 263 July, and resistance is at 282, 285, and 290 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower as the market looked ahead to the reports on Friday. The market expects big supplies in the quarterly stocks estimate and big planted area as planting of the Soybeans crops continues in many areas. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. Planting progress should get better now as the weather is turning drier in the Midwest. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. It seems unlikely now that lost Corn area will get planted to Soybeans as USDA is allowing cover crops to be harvested early in response to the lost Corn production. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Neither side seems ready to make a deal right now although Trump and Xi will meet this week at the G-20 meetings to try to get talks going again. USDA will issue the quarterly stocks and planted area reports on Friday and the stocks should be very big due to the big production last year and the lost demand until now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 876, 851, and 849 July. Support is at 894, 891, and 883 July, and resistance is at 903, 911, and 917 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 309.00 July, and resistance is at 316.00, 319.00, and 321.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2750, and 2730 July, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2870 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on reports of beneficial rains in some areas over the last few days and a ramp up of trade tensions with China. Traders ignored the StatsCan planting report that showed reduced planted area due to the trade tensions with China and bad planning weather over the last couple of months. China has now banned all meat imports from Canada due to the problems with the Huawei executive held in Canada for extradition to the US. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand as reported by the private services and ideas of strong production. The amount of trading was lower before the USDA reports tomorrow and the G-20 meetings this weekend.. The outside markets were lower. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 437.00, 431.00, and 430.00 July, with resistance at 445.00, 450.00, and 455.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 September, with resistance at 2010, 2020, and 2040 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas today, then drier. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +80 July +163 July +78 July +65 July N/A N/A
July +50 July +80 July +50 July
August +42 September +70 September +40 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July
August 110 August -15 August 40 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 26
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 26 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, June 26
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 430.90 -15.70 July 2019 dn 9.00
Track Thunder Bay 453.80 – 0.00 Nov 2019 up 2.70
Track Vancouver 463.80 -10.00 Nov 2019 up 2.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 470.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 367.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,920 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 134 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1436)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 93,766 lots, or 3.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,340 3,380 3,340 3,380 3,421 3,360 -61 4 596
Sep-19 3,436 3,447 3,417 3,430 3,443 3,430 -13 86,202 143,030
Nov-19 3,456 3,497 3,456 3,466 3,464 3,469 5 30 138
Jan-20 3,437 3,450 3,430 3,440 3,445 3,437 -8 6,408 48,224
Mar-20 3,440 3,440 3,433 3,433 3,446 3,434 -12 8 34
May-20 3,528 3,531 3,515 3,526 3,527 3,522 -5 1,114 21,924
Corn
Turnover: 441,654 lots, or 8.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,892 1,895 1,892 1,895 1,897 1,893 -4 2,328 66,388
Sep-19 1,941 1,944 1,937 1,940 1,944 1,940 -4 295,706 1,002,532
Nov-19 1,971 1,974 1,969 1,971 1,976 1,972 -4 54,736 342,886
Jan-20 2,001 2,006 1,997 2,004 2,007 2,002 -5 81,776 554,616
Mar-20 2,021 2,024 2,018 2,024 2,025 2,020 -5 280 2,344
May-20 2,070 2,070 2,062 2,063 2,070 2,064 -6 6,828 72,830
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,144,306 lots, or 61.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,805 2,827 2,794 2,803 2,823 2,813 -10 1,642 5,618
Aug-19 2,881 2,883 2,848 2,863 2,879 2,860 -19 149,822 121,032
Sep-19 2,888 2,905 2,870 2,880 2,890 2,884 -6 1,734,606 1,851,940
Nov-19 2,914 2,936 2,905 2,914 2,920 2,918 -2 1,248 8,700
Dec-19 2,906 2,917 2,895 2,907 2,916 2,909 -7 302 774
Jan-20 2,923 2,938 2,910 2,926 2,931 2,923 -8 224,244 408,466
Mar-20 – – – 2,835 2,828 2,835 7 0 844
May-20 2,751 2,760 2,739 2,754 2,753 2,750 -3 32,442 166,692
Palm Oil
Turnover: 561,668 lots, or 24.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,972 4,104 3,972 3,996 4,100 4,024 -76 6 4
Aug-19 – – – 4,198 4,198 4,198 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,260 4,314 4,258 4,292 4,268 4,282 14 480,710 655,422
Oct-19 4,414 4,414 4,414 4,414 4,370 4,414 44 20 34
Nov-19 – – – 4,474 4,474 4,474 0 0 20
Dec-19 4,480 4,480 4,480 4,480 4,366 4,480 114 2 10
Jan-20 4,476 4,516 4,472 4,486 4,484 4,486 2 76,318 190,242
Feb-20 – – – 4,482 4,482 4,482 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,610 4,608 4,610 2 0 12
Apr-20 4,670 4,672 4,670 4,672 4,598 4,670 72 4 2
May-20 4,698 4,732 4,690 4,700 4,696 4,700 4 4,608 12,980
Jun-20 – – – 4,722 4,722 4,722 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 394,406 lots, or 21.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 – – – 5,300 5,268 5,300 32 0 32
Sep-19 5,378 5,426 5,366 5,420 5,380 5,398 18 331,574 720,720
Nov-19 – – – 5,472 5,472 5,472 0 0 6
Dec-19 5,552 5,646 5,552 5,552 5,478 5,584 106 14 16
Jan-20 5,532 5,578 5,524 5,574 5,540 5,548 8 57,540 195,702
Mar-20 – – – 5,638 5,638 5,638 0 0 12
May-20 5,636 5,702 5,636 5,698 5,650 5,676 26 5,278 18,708
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322