Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 155’03, 10 Yr. Notes 2.5 higher at 127’21.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 2.5 higher at 118’00.75. The long Dec. 19/short Dec. 20 Eurodollar spread is currently at 35 points premium the Dec. 2020 contracts. This week the St. Louis Fed’s Bullard remarked that although the market could stand a rate cut, 50 basis points will be too much (not a direct quote, but, my paraphrasing). This had the immediate reaction of breaking from recent highs. Although a top may have been made, I’m still hesitant to trade the 10 and 30 yr. instruments. I am watching closely to see if the yield on the 10 Yr. holds above 2.00%, a level that the market has been flirting with the past few weeks. I remain short the 5 Yr. Note from 117’22 and continue to hold the afore-mentioned Eurodollar spread.
Grains: July Corn is currently 0’2 lower at 443’0, Beans 1’2 higher at 895’4 and Wheat 7’4 higher at 551’2. I remain long Dec./short July Corn which has not been working as I thought. We initiated the trade at 16’0 premium Dec., currently at 11’4. I will hold the position through Friday morning’s Grain Report.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle looked pretty bleak until yesterday’s nearly limit move to the upside. It is hard to pick a bottom, but I feel that we are near one, particularly in Feeders.I remain short the Aug LC 102 put and recommend taking profits below 1.00 (yesterday’s close was 1.05.
Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 6 cents lower at 15.135. We remain long with protective sell stops at 14.70.
S&P’s: Sept. S&P’s are currently 6.75 higher at 2924.75. As mentioned over the last few weeks there is heavy resistance in the 2960.00 area. I’m a seller on rallies with using a buy stop at 2965.00
Currencies: AS of this writing the Sept. Euro is 1 higher at 1.14420, the Yen 10 lower at 0.93210, the Pound 20 higher at 1.2755 and the Dollar Index 7 higher at 95.735. I will be a seller in the D.I. above 96.50 for mostly technical reasons.