Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was mostly a little higher in reaction to the USDA weekly crop updates that showed increasing problems with the crops in Texas. The crop progress has been very close to the five-year average and crop conditions are called mixed, but Texas conditions deteriorated. Trends are sideways on the daily charts. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. The state breakdown for the crop condition ratings show the problems in Texas as the crop there is showing the weakest condition. The Delta has also been wet and some rains have been seen in the Southeast over the last few weeks. The Indian monsoon is off to a slow start and production potential could be hurt there and in Pakistan. Monsoon rains have improved in central and southern parts of the country but these rains are arriving a couple of weeks late. Some forecasts say that the monsoon will fade early this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get some showers and storms on Tuesday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 59.94 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 97,690 bales, from 101,719 bales yesterday. ICE said that 42 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries are now 229 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6530, 6470, and 6400 December, with resistance of 6670, 6790, and 6860 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in quiet trading. There are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are at least as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 97.00, and 95.00 July, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 108.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London. The US Dollar moved lower again yesterday and the Real was firm. The market will look to add to gains this week and could confirm an important low in prices if new moves higher can be sustained. The chart patterns remain positive for now. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.387 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 543 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 110.00 and 122.00 September. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 101.00 September, and resistance is at 108.00, 110.00 and 113.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1480, 1530, and 1580 September. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1380 September, and resistance is at 1470, 1490, and 1510 September.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in range trading. It was a fairly quiet session with little news to push prices one way or the other. The Indian monsoon continues to improve in rain amounts and coverage. The government weather services there is looking for a normal monsoon, but many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India has always been willing to dump agricultural goods such as Rice and Sugar at below cost prices, so the market began to anticipate improved sales from mills and exporters there. The Real was weaker against the US Dollar. Brazilian processors prefer to make Ethanol for the domestic market rather than Sugar for the export market. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1240 and 1210 October. Support is at 1240, 1230, and 1210 October, and resistance is at 1280, 1290, and 1310 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 327.00 October. Support is at 327.00, 325.00, and 323.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 340.00, and 343.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets and trends are trying to turn down in correction trading. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. Ghana says it has lost 50,000 tons of Cocoa from its main crop due to disease and expects to lose more from the mid crop and maybe the nest main crop. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals now total 2.076 million tons, from 1.860 million last year. The pace is about 12% higher than a year ago.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply lower today at 4.462 million bags. ICE said that 166 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 609 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2440, and 2410 September, with resistance at 2510, 2540, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1820, 1810, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.