About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on the export sales report that showed net cancellations for the current crop year. Turkey and China cancelled purchases for this year, but bought for next year. It was bearish demand news and more selling is possible today before July contracts go into delivery on Monday.. The weather has been bad for crop planting and development, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. However, USDA showed good progress and steady condition ratings. The Delta has also been wet and it has been dry in the Southeast, although better rains have been seen lately in this region. Demand is a problem for traders due mostly to moves made in Washington. Cotton is already experiencing lost business potential with China and Turkey. The Indian monsoon is finally getting going so weather concerns for Cotton there will become less.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get drier weather except for some showers on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but scattered showers tomorrow. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. The USDA average price is now 59.79 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 98,414 bales, from 97,713 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 6240 July. Support is at 6240, 6160, and 6040 July, with resistance of 6400, 6450, and 6490 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 20
As of Jun 14. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 19 5,933 9,084 -3,151 4,929 5,292 -363
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 29,971 29,530 441 39,182 38,819 363
Mar 20 20,721 20,426 295 3,225 3,447 -222
May 20 8,030 7,905 125 431 431 0
Jul 20 13,123 12,898 225 1,925 2,093 -168
Dec 20 6,886 6,386 500 13,007 11,834 1,173
Mar 21 2,381 2,383 -2 574 574 0
May 21 641 641 0 0 0 0
Jul 21 394 394 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 331 133 198 331 22 309
Total 88,411 89,780 -1,369 63,604 62,512 1,092
Open Change
Int
Jul 19 26,765 74,118 -47,353
Oct 19 82 63 19
Dec 19 129,873 103,776 26,097
Mar 20 21,141 17,830 3,311
May 20 2,752 2,142 610
Jul 20 3,753 3,545 208
Dec 20 8,851 8,477 374
Mar 21 206 205 1
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 0 0 0
Dec 21 0 0 0
Total 193,423 210,156 -16,733

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher in correction trading. Florida weather remains generally good for crops and there do not appear to be any big storms on the horizon. USDA production estimates are above 70 million boxes. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 99.00, 94.00, and 88.00 July. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 93.00 July, with resistance at 101.00, 104.00, and 106.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jun 21
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 6/8/2019
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
6/8/2019 6/9/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 339.67 279.50 21.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.43 6.44 -0.1%
Total 346.11 285.94 21.0%
Pack
Bulk 3.44 0.61 465.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.08 1.42 -24.3%
Total Pack 4.52 2.03 122.4%
Reprocessed -2.28 -2.03 12.0%
Pack from Fruit 2.24 0.00 NA
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.13 0.22 -38.6%
Imports – Foreign 3.75 17.36 -78.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.06 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.14 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 344.45 295.86 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.51 7.86 -4.5%
Total 351.96 303.72 15.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.85 3.01 27.9%
Exports 0.12 0.29 -58.5%
Total (Bulk) 3.97 3.30 20.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.29 1.15 12.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.29 1.15 12.7%
Total Movement 5.26 4.45 18.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 340.49 292.56 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.22 6.72 -7.4%
Ending Inventory 346.70 299.27 15.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
8-Jun-19 9-Jun-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 136.07 86.81 56.7%
Retail/Institutional 43.44 45.29 -4.1%
Total Pack 179.52 132.10 35.9%
Reprocessed -92.23 -91.00 1.3%
Pack from Fruit 87.29 41.10 112.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.90 0.99 -9.3%
Imports – Foreign 235.58 260.34 -9.5%
Domestic Receipts 4.91 8.10 -39.4%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.46 -92.3%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.28 1.00 227.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.75 0.61 186.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 525.72 452.32 16.2%
Retail/Institutional 49.36 52.49 -6.0%
Total 575.07 504.80 13.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 170.37 148.35 14.8%
Domestic 14.86 11.41 30.2%
Exports 185.23 159.76 15.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 43.14 45.77 -5.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 43.14 45.77 -5.8%
Total Movement 228.37 205.53 11.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 340.49 292.56 16.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.22 6.72 -7.4%
Ending Inventory 346.70 299.27 15.8%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher as the US Dollar moved sharply lower and the Brazilian Real made new highs for the move. Somar in Brazil forecast cold and wet weather for Coffee areas yesterday, and this caused some buying as well. The Somar forecast was an outlier as international forecasts are still calling for mild and dry weather in Coffee areas. The new crop is coming and is a smaller crop, but the supplies from the previous crop are still around and are now getting pushed into the market. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but weather is now called good with showers being reported in the Central Highlands. Buyers are now more actively pursuing other origins, especially for certified or higher end coffees.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 2.381 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 99.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 26 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 427 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 108.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1310 September, and resistance is at 1440, 1470, and 1490 September.

SUGAR
General Comments Futures closed a little lower in both markets once again as the Indian monsoon started to look better. The increased monsoon coverage in India has started to ease concerns about production losses this year. There was some additional selling pressure on the reports that the monsoon in India was getting more active and on statements from the Indian Sugar Association and others that the country still had surplus Sugar to sell. There are now rains reported in many areas of southern and central India. Even so, there are now a lot of private forecasts that June rains in both India and Pakistan will be below average. The government weather services there is looking for a normal monsoon. Ideas are that a large part of the Brazilian harvest can be turned into ethanol due to the problems raising Corn in the US. Processing of Brazilian Sugar is faster now with the harvest in full swing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1290, 1300, and 1330 October. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1290, 1310, and 1350 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 333.00 and 327.00 October. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 330.00 October, and resistance is at 343.00, 345.00, and 347.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower and trends are starting to turn down in London. New York futures held to the trading range. It looks like the market is running out of steam even though the fundamentals and talk of the market have not really changed. Most seem to view the down move as a correction trade. The market still appears to be mostly a demand led rally market, but there are signs of slightly lower production in West Africa. The disease in Ghana could hurt the mid crop and probably will affect the next main crop that will be harvested at the end of the year. The mid crop harvest is winding down in West Africa and reports are generally positive. Otherwise, the weather is called good with above average rains reported in Ivory Coast last week. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Demand appears strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.555 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 342 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2380 September, with resistance at 2490, 2500, and 2540 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1800 and 1750 September. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1870 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322