About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher in Chicago Winter Wheat markets, but lower in Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets. Too much rain is delaying the harvest of Winter Wheat, especially in the Midwest. Forecasts for rains in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies are keeping Minneapolis prices under selling pressure. Ideas that US Wheat is overpriced in the world market and that the US harvest is starting to get going in earnest were negatives for the prices. Reports from Texas indicate that yields are very good and they should be after all of the rain in the region. However, the quality might not be that good as the protein levels could suffer due to all of the rain. Forecasts for Russian areas have moderated and the reports of improved weather have imply that crop will be in better condition soon, but traders there now estimate the crop below 80 million tons. HRW markets had trouble generating much enthusiasm on reports of strong yield potential. The harvest is starting to expand now so new reports will be heard. Meanwhile, things are very slow in the Midwest due to the rain that have made harvest difficult at best. The weather in the Great Plains seems to be a little better now and ideas are that a high yielding crop is coming.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers into the weekend, then drier conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 514, 513, and 508 July, with resistance at 525, 529, and 538 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 450, 445, and 444 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 487 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 533 and 510 July. Support is at 540, 537, and 532 July, and resistance is at 546, 553, and 560 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on new speculative selling. Futures rebounded from the lows made early in the session but could not really generate much upside movement as new sellers appeared on the rebound. It was an ugly day and one that kept the price trends down on the charts. Futures hit the first targets yesterday, but still could go lower until more is known about the crop size. The data does on how many acres got planted will be released at the end of next week. However, planting in many areas got so delayed that USDA might not have a definitive number by then. Crop development seems to be generally good and crops in southern areas are now in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers most of this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1072 and 1051 July. Support is at 1116, 1109, and 1103 July, with resistance at 1138, 1146, and 1156 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on some forecasts for rains well into next week and possibly through the end of the month. NOAA issued its July outlook that called for below normal temperatures and above normal rains to continue in the Midwest and Great Plains. The export sales report was poor, but no one paid much attention to it due to the weather related production losses and the potential for more production losses coming in the next month. The worst looking crops remain in the central and eastern parts of the Corn Belt due to too much rain, and these crops will not get better weather for the next week or so if not longer. Trade estimates are that between seven and ten million acres of Corn will not get planted this year, but there are those who think lost area could be closer to 12 or 13 million acres. In addition, USDA cut the yield estimate by ten bushels per acre to 166 bushels per acre and some think this yield estimate will be lower as the Summer progresses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 474 and 484 July. Support is at 437, 431, and 421 July, and resistance is at 451, 457, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 270 and 262 July. Support is at 280, 278, and 275 July, and resistance is at 290, 292, and 295 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher. Soybeans are just beginning to feel the potential for crop losses due to all of the wet weather in the Midwest, while Corn has already rallied significantly for this reason. Soybeans futures filled a gap in the charts yesterday and then rallied to the upper half of the weekly trading range. More rain is in the forecast through the weekend, so planting this week will be difficult. Producers in eastern areas will most likely get the most rain. Producers suggest that they will try to plant through early July and then give up. The total planted area for Soybeans this year will be tough to determine and it is very possible that less will get planted even if producers want to plant more. There are also disease concerns as Soybeans do not like all of this wet weather. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Vietnam said it had culled about 2.5 million hogs to combat the disease. China has continued to buy US pork meat as it needs meat in a big way due to the Swine Flu. It is also making deals to buy pork from just about everyone else as the demand is going to be big enough to demand imports from all corners of the globe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 953 July. Support is at 901, 897, and 894 July, and resistance is at 917, 920, and 921 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 315.00 July, and resistance is at 323.00, 327.00, and 328.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2950 July. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2750 July, with resistance at 2870, 2910, and 2940 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher with Chicago and despite forecasts for rains in some areas over the weekend. The Canadian Dollar was higher as the US Dollar Index moved sharply lower. More rain is in the forecast for the next few days after rains were reported late this week in Alberta and Saskatchewan. There are reports that farmers are replanting crops and also talk of disease pressure. Some traders expect a sideways market until the crop prospects become more clear. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand as reported by the private services and outside markets. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News: SGS said Malaysian Palm Oil exported are now 897,936 tons so far this month, from 992,313 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 466.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 September, with resistance at 2060, 2070, and 2080 September.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 21
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 16, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2271.1 694.1 119.5 271.6 52.5 1022.8 254.9 337.1 5708.5
Week Ago 2241.2 665.9 133.2 262.6 58.5 1028.7 335.3 316.6 5718.5
Year Ago 2207.0 556.8 152.3 298.2 71.0 1066.4 333.1 207.1 5433.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 369.6 130.4 22.5 44.9 3.2 379.8 54.4 14.1 1080.0
Week Ago 487.3 144.1 38.0 49.9 9.5 422.5 87.4 10.9 1335.2
To Date 19163.1 4100.8 1939.4 3154.8 360.7 16197.9 3038.8 506.2 51982.9
Year Ago 16272.3 3403.8 1925.4 2818.2 410.2 17057.8 2689.6 580.5 48923.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 406.9 122.0 4.0 7.1 9.6 169.7 67.0 45.7 894.1
Week Ago 384.6 105.7 9.7 12.9 7.2 177.6 60.1 37.4 872.9
To Date 18439.7 4497.7 387.5 1909.5 144.1 8766.2 1825.6 1303.2 43232.4
Year Ago 15949.2 3843.8 212.4 1625.3 193.0 9662.6 1745.9 1049.8 39828.3
EXPORTS
This Week 329.3 90.3 10.7 1.4 11.9 223.1 103.5 52.3 858.2
Week Ago 258.5 90.6 80.7 37.0 11.7 144.0 44.2 21.0 766.3
To Date 16251.8 3900.2 1402.7 2071.0 234.9 8270.7 1868.6 1579.3 39847.5
Year Ago 14395.7 3480.9 1381.2 1738.9 266.7 9161.4 1843.9 1008.3 37271.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 82.8 13.0 8.4 21.9 0.7 165.6 2.8 25.8 338.9
Week Ago 46.4 2.4 6.0 22.5 2.0 140.2 4.9 28.4 280.1
To Date 3627.3 317.2 276.6 1019.6 51.9 8272.3 187.1 1036.2 16744.1
Year Ago 4157.3 643.2 272.2 1098.5 50.9 8258.7 205.5 755.7 17713.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas through the weekend, then drier. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +59 July +163 July +80 July +52 July +1 July
July +50 July +70 July +45 July
August +42 September +65 September +40 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 95 July 42 July
August 100 August 30 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 20
News-MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 442.50 -13.00 July 2019 dn 6.50
Track Thunder Bay 464.70 -5.00 Nov 2019 up 0.40
Track Vancouver 474.70 5.00 Nov 2019 up 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jun 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 527.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 475.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 382.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2020.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 137.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1470)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 137,612 lots, or 4.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,491 3,491 3,397 3,397 3,395 3,444 49 4 604
Sep-19 3,456 3,482 3,433 3,440 3,453 3,460 7 123,158 128,900
Nov-19 3,436 3,445 3,412 3,412 3,452 3,427 -25 12 122
Jan-20 3,450 3,465 3,426 3,439 3,448 3,449 1 12,440 46,722
Mar-20 – – – 3,434 3,434 3,434 0 0 36
May-20 3,536 3,550 3,516 3,528 3,532 3,534 2 1,998 21,220
Corn
Turnover: 1,133,972 lots, or 22.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,891 1,912 1,891 1,904 1,892 1,902 10 10,792 72,168
Sep-19 1,934 1,961 1,934 1,953 1,940 1,949 9 843,698 1,005,270
Nov-19 1,961 1,988 1,961 1,982 1,973 1,977 4 79,252 313,460
Jan-20 1,993 2,018 1,993 2,009 1,998 2,007 9 165,444 516,022
Mar-20 2,021 2,034 2,021 2,028 2,021 2,028 7 2,582 2,552
May-20 2,058 2,072 2,056 2,064 2,064 2,065 1 32,204 75,830
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,970,784 lots, or 86.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,813 2,868 2,813 2,817 2,802 2,839 37 3,346 8,548
Aug-19 2,858 2,911 2,845 2,863 2,858 2,874 16 44,424 181,062
Sep-19 2,890 2,924 2,875 2,880 2,877 2,896 19 2,547,300 1,842,588
Nov-19 2,925 2,953 2,912 2,918 2,908 2,929 21 734 8,476
Dec-19 2,947 2,947 2,909 2,916 2,907 2,925 18 470 840
Jan-20 2,916 2,963 2,916 2,924 2,924 2,938 14 313,632 448,588
Mar-20 2,866 2,890 2,866 2,871 2,852 2,873 21 72 830
May-20 2,746 2,777 2,745 2,757 2,746 2,762 16 60,806 182,474
Palm Oil
Turnover: 566,754 lots, or 24.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,268 4,268 4,268 0 0 12
Aug-19 – – – 4,370 4,370 4,370 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,350 4,356 4,326 4,340 4,370 4,340 -30 509,922 688,244
Oct-19 4,488 4,488 4,402 4,402 4,488 4,444 -44 20 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,520 4,564 4,520 -44 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,412 4,454 4,412 -42 0 12
Jan-20 4,550 4,552 4,522 4,526 4,556 4,534 -22 53,510 169,174
Feb-20 – – – 4,584 4,606 4,584 -22 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,736 4,758 4,736 -22 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,726 4,748 4,726 -22 0 4
May-20 4,742 4,754 4,728 4,736 4,746 4,736 -10 3,302 8,870
Jun-20 – – – 4,738 4,748 4,738 -10 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 372,998 lots, or 20.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,424 5,424 5,370 5,380 5,386 5,386 0 8 36
Sep-19 5,434 5,462 5,402 5,418 5,444 5,432 -12 321,762 731,828
Nov-19 – – – 5,536 5,536 5,536 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,632 5,644 5,632 -12 0 12
Jan-20 5,600 5,622 5,568 5,576 5,608 5,596 -12 49,052 187,316
Mar-20 – – – 5,694 5,694 5,694 0 0 12
May-20 5,702 5,744 5,684 5,690 5,718 5,720 2 2,176 15,636
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322