About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 20
For the week ended Jun 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 187.6 0.0 6335.7 4988.2 5524.6 0.0
hrw -21.1 0.0 2599.9 1123.3 2145.8 0.0
srw 57.7 0.0 941.6 628.0 895.8 0.0
hrs 105.3 0.0 1530.9 1668.5 1358.0 0.0
white 45.7 0.0 1051.2 1467.2 945.9 0.0
durum -0.1 0.0 212.1 101.4 179.1 0.0
corn 38.4 360.8 48445.1 56402.7 6545.1 3068.8
soybeans 571.5 200.0 47509.4 56371.9 11101.1 1994.9
soymeal 109.6 37.7 11228.0 11228.9 2630.1 641.4
soyoil 4.4 0.0 766.1 900.8 142.5 4.2
upland cotton -119.3 221.8 15049.0 16185.1 4078.8 3954.1
pima cotton 4.0 0.0 720.5 633.9 148.0 54.9
sorghum 2.0 0.0 1562.0 5160.1 414.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 50.5 49.0 49.3 0.0
rice 28.1 0.0 3232.3 2875.0 509.9 49.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on ideas that US Wheat is overpriced in the world market and as the US harvest starts to get going in earnest. Reports from Texas indicate that yields are very good and they should be after all of the rain in the region. However, the quality might not be that good as the protein levels could suffer due to all of the rain. Minneapolis was under some pressure from reports of beneficial rains in the forecast for the Canadian Prairies. Forecasts for Russian areas have moderated and the reports of improved weather have imply that crop will be in better condition soon, and this has hurt HRW and Spring Wheat prices. HRW markets had trouble generating much enthusiasm on reports of strong yield potential. The harvest is starting to expand now so new reports will be heard. Meanwhile, things are very slow in the Midwest due to the rain that have made harvest difficult at best. The weather in the Great Plains seems to be a little better now and ideas are that a high yielding crop is coming.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers the rest of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation all week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 514, 508, and 502 July, with resistance at 525, 529, and 538 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 450, 445, and 444 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 487 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 533 and 510 July. Support is at 540, 537, and 532 July, and resistance is at 546, 553, and 560 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on new speculative and maybe some producer selling. There was a lot of long liquidation going on as the rally seems to have ended for now. The crop reports from USDA released Monday showed that the crop is looking better now after a very rough start. The data does not say how many acres got planted, but some did not get done due to the wet Spring. USDA will try to show how much did not get planted when it releases its planted area report in a couple of weeks. However, planting in many areas got so delayed that USDA might not have a definitive number by then. Crop development seems to be generally good and crops in southern areas are now in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers most of this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1113, 1072, and 1051 July. Support is at 1131, 1116, and 1109 July, with resistance at 1138, 1146, and 1156 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on some forecasts for better weather in the US and on ideas that a price correction was needed as there was no additional bullish news for the market. There were news stories that Brazilian Corn could be imported to the US for feed and ethanol uses, and it could happen along the east and west coasts. Forecasts call for more significant rain in the Midwest now through the weekend, but some forecasts call for drier weather after that time. Others call for an active weather pattern through the end of the month in the Midwest. The worst looking crops remain in the central and eastern parts of the Corn Belt due to too much rain, and these crops will not get better weather for the next week or so if not longer. Trade estimates are that between seven and ten million acres of Corn will not get planted this year, but there are those who think lost area could be closer to 12 or 13 million acres. In addition, USDA cut the yield estimate by ten bushels per acre to 166 bushels per acre and some think this yield estimate will be lower as the Summer progresses.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.081 million barrels per day this week, from 1.096 million last week and 1.064 million last year. Ethanol producers processed an estimated 110.2 million bushels of Corn week, from 111.7 million last week and 109.2 million last year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 21.6 million barrels this week, from 21.8 million barrels last week and 21.6 million last year. Corn used for Ethanol production totaled 4.315 billion bushels. Mexico bought 122,000 tons if US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 474 and 484 July. Support is at 438, 436, and 431 July, and resistance is at 451, 457, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 270 and 262 July. Support is at 280, 278, and 275 July, and resistance is at 290, 292, and 295 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower, but the complex overall performed better than the grains. Soybeans are just beginning to feel the potential for crop losses due to all of the wet weather in the Midwest, while Corn has already rallied significantly for this reason. Soybeans futures held a gap chart support point yesterday and the charts look relatively stronger for this market. More rain is in the forecast through the weekend, so planting this week will be difficult. Producers in eastern areas will most likely get the most rain. Producers suggest that they will try to plant through early July and then give up. The total planted area for Soybeans this year will be tough to determine and it is very possible that less will get planted even if producers want to plant more. There are also disease concerns as Soybeans do not like all of this wet weather. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Vietnam said it had culled about 2.5 million hogs to combat the disease. China has continued to buy US pork meat as it needs meat in a big way due to the Swine Flu. It is also making deals to buy pork from just about everyone else as the demand is going to be big enough to demand imports from all corners of the globe.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 189,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 953 July. Support is at 901, 898, and 894 July, and resistance is at 914, 917, and 920 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 316.00, 315.00, and 312.00 July, and resistance is at 320.00, 323.00, and 327.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2950 July. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2750 July, with resistance at 2870, 2910, and 2940 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower with Chicago and on forecasts for rains in some areas over the weekend. It was another high volume session. More rain is in the forecast for the next few days after disappointing rains were reported over the weekend. The rains were thought to be too light to help crops. There re reports that farmers are replanting crops and also talk of disease pressure. Some traders expect a sideways market until the crop prospects become more clear. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand as reported by the private services. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 466.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 September, with resistance at 2060, 2070, and 2080 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas again most of this week and through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +63 July +163 July +85 July +57 July +1 July
July +52 July +75 July +45 July
August +44 September +65 September +40 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 95 July -14 July 42 July
August 95 August -14 August 30 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 19
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 449.00 -11.50 July 2019 up 0.60
Track Thunder Bay 464.30 -5.00 Nov 2019 dn 6.70
Track Vancouver 474.30 5.00 Nov 2019 dn 6.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jun 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 507.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 507.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 507.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 472.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 382.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2010.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 136.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1505)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,888 lots, or 3.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,395 3,395 3,395 0 0 604
Sep-19 3,456 3,471 3,435 3,453 3,442 3,453 11 105,422 132,124
Nov-19 3,492 3,492 3,427 3,436 3,455 3,452 -3 34 122
Jan-20 3,453 3,461 3,437 3,446 3,447 3,448 1 7,436 46,500
Mar-20 3,434 3,434 3,434 3,434 3,452 3,434 -18 2 36
May-20 3,553 3,553 3,520 3,524 3,539 3,532 -7 1,994 21,652
Corn
Turnover: 584,724 lots, or 11.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,897 1,899 1,887 1,887 1,894 1,892 -2 1,250 72,926
Sep-19 1,943 1,946 1,935 1,937 1,942 1,940 -2 354,164 958,912
Nov-19 1,974 1,981 1,965 1,966 1,973 1,973 0 79,992 312,312
Jan-20 2,001 2,008 1,993 1,996 2,007 1,998 -9 131,810 509,034
Mar-20 2,020 2,027 2,019 2,021 2,024 2,021 -3 2,808 4,488
May-20 2,070 2,076 2,056 2,058 2,076 2,064 -12 14,700 66,448
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,334,310 lots, or 67.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,809 2,818 2,780 2,813 2,820 2,802 -18 6,870 8,808
Aug-19 2,876 2,878 2,841 2,850 2,901 2,858 -43 123,948 184,404
Sep-19 2,879 2,898 2,859 2,873 2,886 2,877 -9 1,893,994 1,882,868
Nov-19 2,913 2,930 2,894 2,905 2,918 2,908 -10 434 8,168
Dec-19 2,924 2,925 2,898 2,906 2,909 2,907 -2 84 810
Jan-20 2,936 2,948 2,908 2,916 2,936 2,924 -12 246,984 446,438
Mar-20 2,871 2,871 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,852 12 64 876
May-20 2,756 2,765 2,731 2,743 2,746 2,746 0 61,932 184,240
Palm Oil
Turnover: 538,292 lots, or 23.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 4,214 4,428 4,162 4,162 4,276 4,268 -8 6 12
Aug-19 – – – 4,370 4,378 4,370 -8 0 2
Sep-19 4,376 4,396 4,340 4,350 4,362 4,370 8 481,622 661,294
Oct-19 – – – 4,488 4,480 4,488 8 0 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,564 4,556 4,564 8 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,454 4,454 4,454 0 0 12
Jan-20 4,562 4,572 4,534 4,542 4,554 4,556 2 54,732 167,528
Feb-20 – – – 4,606 4,604 4,606 2 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,758 4,756 4,758 2 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,748 4,746 4,748 2 0 4
May-20 4,752 4,756 4,736 4,736 4,754 4,746 -8 1,932 9,530
Jun-20 – – – 4,748 4,756 4,748 -8 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 292,128 lots, or 15.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,372 5,416 5,356 5,416 5,442 5,386 -56 8 32
Sep-19 5,446 5,460 5,422 5,432 5,460 5,444 -16 247,056 736,340
Nov-19 – – – 5,536 5,536 5,536 0 0 2
Dec-19 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,618 5,644 26 2 12
Jan-20 5,600 5,626 5,586 5,596 5,618 5,608 -10 43,930 180,312
Mar-20 – – – 5,694 5,704 5,694 -10 0 12
May-20 5,724 5,736 5,702 5,702 5,714 5,718 4 1,132 14,742
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322