About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337




Concerns about the corn-to-bean switch & a negative June 11 USDA Report have morphed into concerns about “flat-out” getting the bean crop in as the planting window shrinks from day-to-day!  The net result is a mkt that –  despite record stocks – has authored a  $1.30 upside move – leaving two gaps along the way -feeding off historic planting delays!


  1. EXPORTS – Thur sales were 530,000 (300-800) & Mon inspections were 675,302 (734,074)
  2. PLANTING PROGRESS – Beans are 77% IN (lw-60 avg-93) & 55% emerged (84) Ill – 70 (95)   Ind – 64 (94)     Iowa – 89 (98)

Production – 4150  (avg-4092   May-4150)

Yield                49.5   (avg- 48.7   May- 49.5)

US STOCKS     1045  (avg–987    May – 970)

Global             112.7 (avg-114.7  May – 113.1)

4. RAIN RAIN GO AWAY! – it keeps on raining and now producers are justifiably concerned with getting all their beans in – including all the acres coming from corn

Since we’ve never had planting delays like we have now, we’re certainly in uncharted waters! But two things we know for sure – we’re still plenty cheap & we have an entire growing season ahead of us! Strap in!!




July Corn has had two major market events that have combined to propel it to a $1.20 advance (345-465) since early May! First & foremost, a record slow planting pace has ensured that many thousands of acres won’t get planted – second, the USDA’s June 11 report was a bullish surprise – as the always conservative USDA was forced to come in very low very early this year due to the dire conditions in the corn belt – lopping a whopping 10 bu off the projected yield (176-166) !  Simple math tells  us 9-10 mill less acres at 170bu/ac equates to 1.5-2BB less production than first estimated!


  1. EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 653,875 (851,765) & Thur sales were a woeful 262,000 (350-850)
  2. PLANTING PROGRESS – is 92% in (lw-83 avg-100) – emerged 79(97) Ill – 88 (100)   Ind – 84 (100)   Iowa – 98 (100)
  3. USDA 6/11/19

Production – 13,680 (avg-13903   May – 15030)

Yield                166 ( May -176)

US Stocks        1675 (avg-1675    May – 2485)

Global              290.5 (301.6         May – 314)

4.HOW MANY ACRES LESS TO CORN? That’s a tough one to figure – because no one has a handle on the amount of “prevent acres”!




July wht has been more of a follower of July corn & beans than anything else during its “near vertical”  $1.30 climb (420-550) since early May – and this past week’s action was no exception – as the entire grain complex became oversold & corrected.  It seems the “planting delay fundamental” was played out & dialed into the price structure! However, for the wheat to hold any significant rallies, it will need a better export pattern!




The Aug Cat contract remains a puzzling enigma – as the sharp $20 break (121-101) into the strongest demand period of the year – the Spring Barbeque Season – would seem to offer an excellent buying opportunity – but it has not worked out that way! Instead, the mkt has been victimized by a hefty short term supply, slow export news & a weak cash mkt! Sooner or later, the worm will turn – but not yet!!




Equally confusing is the action in July hogs – that despite the ASF epidemic in China & the resumption of trade relations with Mexico, the mkt likewise has been unable to respond to a $20 break  — right during the highest demand period for the year!  Once again slack exports & a weak cash mkt seem to be the culprit!  Also, the mkt seemed to have high expectations for robust exports off the ASF in China – but they just haven’t materialized! Finally – higher feed costs -meal & corn – have also been a drag on the meats!



141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to offers@pricegroup.com.


View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337