Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was mixed, with long liquidation noted in old crop months. Prices closed a little higher in new crop months as traders become more concerned about planting progress and crop development of this crop. The market did not really react to news that working groups of Chinese and Americans will meet before the G-20 meetings to try to get an agreement between the countries back on track again. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. However, USDA showed good progress and steady condition ratings. The Delta has also been wet and it has been dry in the Southeast, although better rains have been seen lately in this region. Demand is a problem for traders due mostly to moves made in Washington. Cotton is already experiencing lost business potential with China and Turkey. The Indian monsoon is finally getting going so weather concerns for Cotton there will become less.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. The USDA average price is now 60.66 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,036 bales, from 95,526 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6240 July. Support is at 6490, 6450, and 6400 July, with resistance of 6700, 6750, and 6850 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower as the Florida weather remains generally good for crops. Speculators are rolling or liquidating positions before July goes into delivery at the end of the month. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early part in the season. USDA production estimates are above 70 million boxes. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 97.00, and 95.00 July, with resistance at 106.00, 108.00, and 113.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower despite a higher Brazilian Real as the US Dollar moved to a new recovery high and pushed the prices for most commodities lower. Coffee could not escape the general selling pressure. A strong export pace from Brazil remains a feature as CECAFE last week noted that Mat exports were well over 3 million bags. The new crop is coming and is a smaller crop, but the supplies from the previous crop are still around and are now getting pushed into the market.. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but weather is now called good with showers being reported in the Central Highlands. Buyers are now more actively pursuing other origins, especially for certified or higher end coffees.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.381 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.17 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 88.00, 85.00, and 81.00 July. Support is at 90.00, 88.00, and 86.00 July, and resistance is at 97.00, 98.00 and 100.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1240 and 1210 July. Support is at 1330, 1290, and 1270 July, and resistance is at 1380, 1400, and 1420 July.
General Comments Futures closed mixed in New York and a little lower in London as the market is starting to look for shorter world production. Ideas are that a large part of the Brazilian harvest can be turned into ethanol due to the problems raising Corn in the US. There was some selling pressure in London on reports that the monsoon in India was getting more active and on statements from the Indian Sugar Association that the country still had surplus Sugar to sell. Processing of Brazilian Sugar is faster now with the harvest in full swing. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. It is hot and dry there so far, but there are signs that the monsoon is ready to develop as rains are now reported in many areas of southern and central India. Even so, there are now a lot of private forecasts that June rains in both India and Pakistan will be below average. The government weather services there is looking for a normal monsoon.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1290, 1300, and 1330 October. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1310, 1350, and 1370 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 333.00 and 327.00 October. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 330.00 October, and resistance is at 343.00, 345.00, and 347.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in recovery trading. The disease in Ghana could hurt the mid crop and probably will affect the next main crop that will be harvested at the end of the year. The mid crop harvest is winding down in West Africa and reports are generally positive. Otherwise, the weather is called good with above average rains reported in Ivory Coast last week. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Demand appears strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.577 million bags. ICE said that 10 contracts were delivered against July futures today and that total deliveries for the month are 263 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2430 and 2370 September. Support is at 2450, 2440, and 2410 September, with resistance at 2500, 2530, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1810, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.