About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on ideas that US Wheat is overpriced in the world market and as the US Dollar moved higher. The harvest is proceeding in the southern Great Plains. The USDA reports showed better progress and stable condition ratings this week. Minneapolis was under some pressure from reports of beneficial rains in the Canadian Prairies. Forecasts for Russian areas have moderated and the reports of improved weather have imply that crop will be in better condition soon, and this has hurt HRW and Spring Wheat prices. HRW markets had trouble generating much enthusiasm on reports of strong yield potential. The harvest is starting to expand now so new reports will be heard. Meanwhile, things are very slow in the Midwest due to the rain that have made harvest difficult at best. The weather in the Great Plains seems to be a little better now and ideas are that a high yielding crop is coming. However, there have also been reports that some of the Wheat is not good and will be used as feed for dairy interests in the region. Overall quality is expected to be down due to all of the rain. The crop is expected to feature lower protein levels this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers the rest of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation all week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 525, 522, and 520 July, with resistance at 538, 544, and 549 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 508 and 601 July. Support is at 460, 454, and 450 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 487 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 533 and 510 July. Support is at 548, 545, and 543 July, and resistance is at 560, 563, and 570 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower once again in quiet trading. The crop reports from USDA showed that the crop is looking better now after a very rough start. The data does not say how many acres got planted, but some did not get done due to the wet Spring. USDA will try to show how much did not get planted when it releases its planted area report in a couple of weeks. However, planting in many areas got so delayed that USDA might not have a definitive number by then. California is also having some weather problems from too much rain, but the crop condition there is strong as it usually is. Planted area for this crop could be a little less than original expectations as well as it was very wet during toe best time for planting and initial development. Crop development seems to be generally good and crops in southern areas are now in flood. This has helped ease some quality concerns for producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers most of this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1154, 1146, and 1138 July, with resistance at 1168, 1179, and 1183 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 19
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 12.93 8.02 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.45 8.59 0.00
Brokens 7.80 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower in reaction to the higher US Dollar and ideas that US Corn is over prices. There were news stories that Brazilian Corn could be imported to the US for feed and ethanol uses, and it could happen along the east and west coasts. Forecasts call for more significant rain in the Midwest now through the weekend. The worst looking crops remain in the central and eastern parts of the Corn Belt due to too much rain, and these crops will not get better weather for the next week or so if not longer. Trade estimates are that between seven and ten million acres of Corn will not get planted this year, but there are those who think lost area could be closer to 12 or 13 million acres. In addition, USDA cut the yield estimate by ten bushels per acre to 166 bushels per acre and some think this yield estimate will be lower as the Summer progresses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 474 and 484 July. Support is at 443, 438, and 436 July, and resistance is at 457, 460, and 463 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 270 and 262 July. Support is at 295, 292, and 290 July, and resistance is at 300, 307, and 310 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday on weather and production concerns and on news that Trump and Xi will meet at the G-20. Additional buying came on news that the trade teams from both sides will meet before then to get the negotiations jump started after a long time off. USDA showed progress that was a little behind trade expectations in its crop updates this week, but this did not seem to matter to price. More rain is in the forecast through the weekend, so planting this week will be difficult. Producers in eastern areas will most likely get the most rain. Producers suggest that they will try to plant through early July and then give up. The total planted area for Soybeans this year will be tough to determine and it is very possible that less will get planted even if producers want to plant more. There are also disease concerns as Soybeans do not like all of this wet weather. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Vietnam said it had culled about 2.5 million hogs to combat the disease. China has continued to buy US pork meat as it needs meat in a big way due to the Swine Flu. It is also making deals to buy pork from just about everyone else as the demand is going to be big enough to demand imports from all corners of the globe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 953 July. Support is at 901, 898, and 894 July, and resistance is at 917, 920, and 926 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 315.00 July, and resistance is at 327.00, 328.00, and 331.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2950 July. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2750 July, with resistance at 2870, 2910, and 2940 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on weather concerns in Canada and despite reports of rains in some areas over the weekend. It was a high volume session. More rain is in the forecast for the next few days after disappointing rains were reported over the weekend. The rains were thought to be too light to help crops. The Canadian Dollar was a little weaker yesterday. There re reports that farmers are replanting crops and also talk of disease pressure. Some traders expect a sideways market until the crop prospects become more clear. Palm Oil was a little lower in correction trading. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. Export demand is said to be improving. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 455.00, 452.00, and 449.00 July, with resistance at 462.00, 464.00, and 467.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2080 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas again most of this week and through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +65 July +163 July +85 July +53 July +1 July
July +53 July +85 July +45 July
August +44 September +65 September +40 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 105 July -15 July 38 July
August 95 August -12 August 27 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 18
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 448.40 -11.20 July 2019 up 3.50
Track Thunder Bay 471.00 -5.00 Nov 2019 up 0.60
Track Vancouver 481.00 5.00 Nov 2019 up 0.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 510.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 510.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 510.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 475.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 387.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,040 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 137.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1720)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 191,504 lots, or 6.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,395 3,395 3,395 0 0 604
Sep-19 3,454 3,462 3,418 3,458 3,471 3,442 -29 169,728 140,490
Nov-19 3,455 3,455 3,455 3,455 3,464 3,455 -9 2 126
Jan-20 3,468 3,471 3,430 3,455 3,482 3,447 -35 16,506 46,304
Mar-20 – – – 3,452 3,463 3,452 -11 0 36
May-20 3,563 3,563 3,520 3,537 3,565 3,539 -26 5,268 21,714
Corn
Turnover: 946,808 lots, or 18.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,903 1,903 1,890 1,895 1,903 1,894 -9 3,964 73,280
Sep-19 1,947 1,951 1,936 1,943 1,951 1,942 -9 603,348 1,005,116
Nov-19 1,986 1,986 1,969 1,973 1,986 1,973 -13 106,080 312,924
Jan-20 2,020 2,020 2,001 2,003 2,021 2,007 -14 206,394 519,454
Mar-20 2,036 2,036 2,020 2,021 2,040 2,024 -16 4,960 5,298
May-20 2,089 2,091 2,070 2,071 2,093 2,076 -17 22,062 65,852
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,739,528 lots, or 10.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,873 2,877 2,776 2,810 2,877 2,820 -57 2,656 9,178
Aug-19 2,928 2,928 2,825 2,863 2,940 2,901 -39 80,364 189,414
Sep-19 2,936 2,947 2,840 2,884 2,947 2,886 -61 3,033,902 1,927,390
Nov-19 2,977 2,977 2,880 2,913 2,976 2,918 -58 1,286 8,240
Dec-19 2,954 2,954 2,895 2,915 2,972 2,909 -63 116 814
Jan-20 2,981 2,995 2,896 2,940 2,991 2,936 -55 493,672 451,752
Mar-20 2,886 2,886 2,825 2,844 2,910 2,840 -70 200 876
May-20 2,765 2,769 2,715 2,759 2,765 2,746 -19 127,332 188,180
Palm Oil
Turnover: 559,010 lots, or 24.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 4,366 4,366 4,228 4,228 4,402 4,276 -126 18 16
Aug-19 – – – 4,378 4,378 4,378 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,362 4,374 4,344 4,366 4,376 4,362 -14 485,162 628,456
Oct-19 – – – 4,480 4,494 4,480 -14 0 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,556 4,556 4,556 0 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,454 4,468 4,454 -14 0 12
Jan-20 4,564 4,570 4,536 4,550 4,570 4,554 -16 69,184 159,482
Feb-20 – – – 4,604 4,604 4,604 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,746 4,746 4,746 0 0 4
May-20 4,756 4,788 4,730 4,736 4,770 4,754 -16 4,646 8,456
Jun-20 – – – 4,756 4,770 4,756 -14 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 553,438 lots, or 30.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 – – – 5,442 5,442 5,442 0 0 34
Sep-19 5,500 5,506 5,428 5,436 5,502 5,460 -42 465,904 738,398
Nov-19 – – – 5,536 5,536 5,536 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,618 5,660 5,618 -42 0 12
Jan-20 5,660 5,664 5,586 5,600 5,658 5,618 -40 83,702 179,086
Mar-20 – – – 5,704 5,704 5,704 0 0 12
May-20 5,746 5,746 5,694 5,710 5,746 5,714 -32 3,832 14,780
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322