About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on follow through fund buying and as uncertain growing conditions around the world continued. Chicago was the upside leader, implying big speculative buying interest. The weekly export sales report was positive as good demand for US Wheat is still seen despite the rally in futures. The harvest is underway, so actual yield reports will start to become available. USDA showed lower ending stocks projections in its monthly projections, although the ending stocks projections remain very high. The best precipitation in years for the Great Plains is behind the increased production. It also means that protein levels will not be real high, so using the Wheat for feed in many cases will make a lot of sense. Dry weather is still featured in the western Canadian Prairies and reports of hot and dry weather in Russia and into eastern Ukraine continue. Production estimates for Russia have started to drop and world prices have started to firm. The situation in Canada is having more to do with the recent strength in Minneapolis as much of the Canadian Spring Wheat is hedged in that market. The dry weather in Canada has made for easier planting but poor emergence. Questions about yield potential are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get frequent precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions through Thursday, then scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 529, 522, and 520 July, with resistance at 540, 544, and 549 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 454, 450, and 445 July, with resistance at 472, 481, and 497 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 584, 591, and 616 July. Support is at 560, 556, and 551 July, and resistance is at 573, 576, and 581 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in range trading. The weekly export sales report was solid and consisted mostly of sales of long grains in some form or another. USDA showed decreased production and demand potential for the new crop. The weaker production comes after a very difficult time for planting as the weather has been very wet and cool. The reduced production is positive for prices as ending stocks for next year will also be reduced even with reduced demand. The weather remains less than optimal as more rain is coming. Some of the producers in Mississippi, Arkansas, and southern Missouri will stop trying to plant Rice and will try to plant Soybeans instead. Demand for US Rice in the world market has not been all that strong lately, but sales in the western hemisphere are continuing. World prices have been firming lately so this should help the US. Buying today could create new buying interest as chart trends will start to turn up again.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers again over the weekend. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1162, 1154, and 1146 July, with resistance at 1179, 1183, and 1190 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on follow through fund buying tied to the USDA reports and forecasts for more rains in the Midwest this weekend and into next week. The planting season for Corn is now all but over s it is getting too late to plant and have any hopes of a reasonable harvest. USDA cut Corn planted area by 3 million acres and corn yields by 10 bushels per acre and produced a significantly smaller production projection of 13.680 billion bushels. There are ideas that USDA will further reduce planted area in future reports and that total area lost could total between 7 and 10 million acres. Demand was cut for the coming year in the feed and export categories, but ending stocks were still sharply lower at just over 1.6 billion bushels. Funds were reported to be strong buyers again today. Producers with old crop supplies should consider moving these supplies on the rally, and some might want to start selling new crop supplies as well. However, the dynamics of the market have changed and higher prices seem all but certain as the calendar moves forward.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 125,613 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 447, 474, and 484 July. Support is at 438, 426, and 431 July, and resistance is at 445, 448, and 451 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 300, 298, and 296 July, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 313 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on fund buying. Forecasts for rains starting tomorrow night in the eastern half of the Midwest and lasting through the weekend created ideas of more planting delays and some talk of disease for the crops. The rains are now forecast for eastern areas for the next couple of weeks. USDA said it would make adjustments to its Soybeans projections in July once it has more information. The potential for more Soybeans planted area is especially good in the eastern Midwest where yield potential is higher. The trade is still worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. This is also happening, and Swine Flu is being reported now in Europe as well as Asia. China has continued to buy US pork meat as it needs meat in a big way due to the Swine Flu. It is also making deals to buy from just about everyone else as the demand is going to be big enough to demand imports from all corners of the globe.
Overnight News: China cancelled purchases of 136,000 tons of US Soybeans. Unknown destinations and China each bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 890, 908, and 953 July. Support is at 871, 864, and 848 July, and resistance is at 890, 894, and 897 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 326.00 July. Support is at 315.00, 312.00, and 310.00 July, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 326.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2830 and 2950 July. Support is at 2750, 2730, and 2700 July, with resistance at 2800, 2820, and 2830 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little higher along with Chicago and on weather concerns in Canada. Support still comes from reports of dry weather in Canada and Saskatchewan is the driest province. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market. There is hope for increased demand from China as that country bought about double its normal amount of Canadian Wheat last month. Palm Oil was a little higher on outside markets as traders prepare for the MPOB reports. Export demand is said to be improving, It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 460.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 August, with resistance at 2030, 2070, and 2090 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in eastern areas today and in all areas again this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +60 July +163 July +85 July +58 July +1 July
July +50 July +85 July +48 July
August +38 September +75 September +38 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 120 July -13 July 36 July
August 125 August -9 August 26 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 12
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 445.50 up 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 470.50 up 3.10
Basis: Vancouver 477.50 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 507.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July 507.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 510.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 515.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 472.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 397.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,000 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 133 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1670)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 170,318 lots, or 5.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,461 3,461 3,413 3,438 3,447 3,431 -16 8 606
Sep-19 3,480 3,514 3,461 3,467 3,485 3,483 -2 153,458 133,502
Nov-19 3,467 3,467 3,453 3,453 3,444 3,461 17 8 128
Jan-20 3,482 3,513 3,473 3,477 3,481 3,493 12 15,284 43,358
Mar-20 – – – 3,459 3,459 3,459 0 0 36
May-20 3,560 3,581 3,551 3,554 3,555 3,560 5 1,560 19,386
Corn
Turnover: 1,072,710 lots, or 21.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,936 1,936 1,902 1,902 1,921 1,913 -8 15,066 63,816
Sep-19 1,964 1,967 1,946 1,947 1,964 1,955 -9 837,778 1,046,610
Nov-19 2,000 2,002 1,984 1,985 1,998 1,993 -5 33,416 300,708
Jan-20 2,036 2,037 2,018 2,019 2,033 2,026 -7 167,986 511,614
Mar-20 2,059 2,059 2,038 2,038 2,051 2,047 -4 1,434 9,178
May-20 2,108 2,110 2,094 2,095 2,106 2,101 -5 17,030 56,986
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,203,220 lots, or 64.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,868 2,868 2,841 2,850 2,849 2,852 3 3,570 12,430
Aug-19 2,895 2,910 2,888 2,898 2,897 2,900 3 94,908 178,728
Sep-19 2,918 2,930 2,900 2,909 2,918 2,914 -4 1,829,892 1,928,520
Nov-19 2,952 2,959 2,938 2,940 2,958 2,949 -9 772 7,906
Dec-19 2,963 2,964 2,956 2,956 2,953 2,961 8 6 822
Jan-20 2,961 2,974 2,946 2,958 2,959 2,960 1 230,586 442,510
Mar-20 2,883 2,885 2,876 2,876 2,881 2,882 1 94 924
May-20 2,759 2,760 2,735 2,747 2,745 2,749 4 43,392 212,746
Palm Oil
Turnover: 453,518 lots, or 19.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-19 – – – 4,076 4,076 4,076 0 0 0
Jul-19 – – – 4,414 4,414 4,414 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 4,378 4,378 4,378 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,374 4,410 4,374 4,388 4,364 4,390 26 414,148 605,958
Oct-19 – – – 4,494 4,494 4,494 0 0 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,556 4,530 4,556 26 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,482 4,482 4,482 0 0 12
Jan-20 4,566 4,590 4,554 4,574 4,540 4,578 38 38,692 139,840
Feb-20 – – – 4,604 4,604 4,604 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,662 4,662 4,662 0 0 2
May-20 4,748 4,772 4,744 4,760 4,722 4,760 38 678 7,898
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 611,376 lots, or 33.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,480 5,480 5,396 5,396 5,374 5,430 56 34 34
Sep-19 5,466 5,526 5,456 5,474 5,442 5,486 44 538,296 764,426
Nov-19 – – – 5,560 5,516 5,560 44 0 2
Dec-19 5,582 5,628 5,578 5,628 5,564 5,602 38 12 22
Jan-20 5,612 5,684 5,606 5,628 5,596 5,644 48 71,298 170,882
Mar-20 – – – 5,690 5,642 5,690 48 0 12
May-20 5,706 5,766 5,700 5,718 5,688 5,728 40 1,736 13,392
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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