About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 13
For the week ended Jun 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for cotton and rice begins Aug 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soy meal and soy oil begins Oct 1.
For wheat and barley, “this year” is the 2019-2020 marketing
year, which began Jun 1, while “last year” is 2018-2019.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 1912.7-a 0.0 6148.1 4526.6 5768.0 0.0
hrw 937.2-b 0.0 2621.0 1015.4 2429.7 0.0
srw 174.2-c 0.0 883.8 602.6 853.8 0.0
hrs 415.9-d 0.0 1425.6 1489.8 1347.4 0.0
white 359.0-e 0.0 1005.5 1316.4 948.0 0.0
durum 26.5-f 0.0 212.2 102.5 189.1 0.0
corn 168.5 94.1 48406.7 56236.8 7147.6 2708.0
soybeans 255.9 275.2 46937.8 56149.7 11266.1 1794.8
soymeal 112.5 41.5 11118.4 11113.7 2687.8 603.7
soyoil 5.1 0.0 761.7 884.8 151.0 4.2
upland cotton 75.1 43.0 15168.4 16297.6 4519.4 3732.3
pima cotton 5.7 4.1 716.5 634.1 163.2 54.9
sorghum -0.2 0.0 1560.0 5105.2 415.6 0.0
barley 18.7-g 0.0 50.5 48.6 50.0 0.0
rice 66.0 0.0 3204.2 2866.5 551.3 49.5
-a: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net increase of 325.4 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1587.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-b: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun6 which resulted
in a net increase of 155.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
781.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-c: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net increase of 58.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
116.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-d: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net increase of 41.5 thousand metric tons. Also includes
374.4 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-e: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net increase of 68.2 thousand metric tons. Also includes
290.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-f: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net increase of 2.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes
24.4 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.
-g: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net decrease of 0.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
18.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-2019.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on follow through fund buying and as uncertain growing conditions around the world continued. Chicago was the upside leader, implying big speculative buying interest. USDA showed lower ending stocks projections, although the ending stocks projections remain very high. The best precipitation in years for the Great Plains is behind the increased production. It also means that protein levels will not be real high, so using the Wheat for feed in many cases will make a lot of sense. This is where USDA showed its increased demand. Spring Wheat values were firm with more reports of dry weather for planting in the western Canadian Prairies and reports of hot and dry weather in Russia and into eastern Ukraine. Production estimates for Russia have started to drop and world prices have started to firm. The situation in Canada is having more to do with the recent strength in Minneapolis as much of the Canadian Spring Wheat is hedged in that market. The dry weather in Canada has made for easier planting but poor emergence. Questions about yield potential are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get frequent precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions through Thursday, then scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 527, 555, and 557 July. Support is at 521, 515, and 513 July, with resistance at 529, 535, and 540 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 454, 450, and 445 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 497 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 584, 591, and 616 July. Support is at 560, 556, and 551 July, and resistance is at 572, 576, and 581 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher. USDA showed decreased production and demand potential for the new crop. The reduced production is positive for prices as ending stocks for next year will also be reduced even with reduced demand. The weather remains less than optimal as more rain is coming. Some of the producers in Mississippi, Arkansas, and southern Missouri will stop trying to plant Rice and will try to plant Soybeans instead. Demand for US Rice in the world market has not been all that strong lately, but sales in the western hemisphere are continuing. World prices have been firming lately so this should help the US. Follow through buying today could create new buying interest as chart trends will start to turn up again.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers again over the weekend. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1168, 1162, and 1154 July, with resistance at 1179, 1183, and 1190 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on follow through fund buying tied to the USDA reports. Oats were lower. USDA cut Corn planted area by 3 million acres and corn yields by 10 bushels per acre and produced a significantly smaller production projection of 13.680 billion bushels. There are ideas that USDA will further reduce planted area in future reports and that total area lost could total between 7 and 10 million acres. Demand was cut for the coming year in the feed and export categories, but ending stocks were still sharply lower at just over 1.6 billion bushels. Funds were reported to be strong buyers again today after being huge buyers yesterday. Producers with old crop supplies should consider moving these supplies on the rally, and some might want to start selling new crop supplies as well. However, the dynamics of the market have changed and higher prices seem all but certain as the calendar moves forward.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 175,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 447, 474, and 484 July. Support is at 423, 421, and 416 July, and resistance is at 434, 436, and 438 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 300, 298, and 296 July, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 313 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on fund buying. USDA said it would make adjustments to its Soybeans projections in July once it has more information. That news seemed to trigger the fund buying. USDA made no real changes to US new crop estimates and cut export demand for the old crop estimates as the export sales pace has been slower than expected. Forecasts for above normal rains east of the Mississippi River for the next couple of weeks was also bullish for the market as planting of Soybeans can be delayed. The potential for more Soybeans planted area is especially good in the eastern Midwest where yield potential is higher. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. This is also happening, and Swine Flu is being reported now in Europe as well as Asia. China has continued to buy US pork meat as it needs meat in a big way due to the Swine Flu. It is also making deals to buy from just about everyone else as the demand is going to be big enough to demand imports from all corners of the globe. The Brazilian Real has firmed in the last few weeks and trends are turning up again. The Real was higher again yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 890, 908, and 953 July. Support is at 871, 864, and 848 July, and resistance is at 890, 894, and 897 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 326.00 July. Support is at 315.00, 312.00, and 310.00 July, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 326.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2760, 2790, and 2800 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher along with Chicago and on weather concerns in Canada. Support still comes from reports of dry weather in Canada and Saskatchewan is the driest province. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market. There is hope for increased demand from China as that country bought about double its normal amount of Canadian Wheat last month. Palm Oil was higher on outside markets as traders prepare for the MPOB reports. Bearish data is expected, It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 459.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1930, and 1900 August, with resistance at 1990, 2030, and 2070 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in eastern areas today and in all areas again this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +60 July +163 July +85 July +58 July +1 July
July +50 July +85 July +48 July
August +38 September +75 September +38 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July -13 July 38 July
August 117 August -9 August 28 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 12
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 445.50 up 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 470.50 up 3.10
Basis: Vancouver 477.50 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 510.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
July 510.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 512.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 515.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
July 515.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 517.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 525.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 475.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 400.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,010 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 134 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1620)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 181,814 lots, or 6.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,465 3,465 3,429 3,429 3,431 3,447 16 4 606
Sep-19 3,472 3,508 3,465 3,481 3,488 3,485 -3 162,274 125,114
Nov-19 – – – 3,444 3,444 3,444 0 0 128
Jan-20 3,477 3,501 3,466 3,484 3,483 3,481 -2 16,250 40,372
Mar-20 3,460 3,461 3,457 3,461 3,471 3,459 -12 10 36
May-20 3,539 3,575 3,534 3,559 3,540 3,555 15 3,276 18,990
Corn
Turnover: 825,340 lots, or 16.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,917 1,925 1,916 1,918 1,916 1,921 5 4,790 65,464
Sep-19 1,961 1,970 1,958 1,963 1,960 1,964 4 622,170 989,166
Nov-19 1,992 2,005 1,992 1,998 1,993 1,998 5 34,114 292,666
Jan-20 2,028 2,039 2,026 2,032 2,028 2,033 5 146,008 510,308
Mar-20 2,055 2,056 2,048 2,053 2,048 2,051 3 1,406 9,514
May-20 2,100 2,110 2,098 2,108 2,099 2,106 7 16,852 54,756
Soymeal
Turnover: 4,414,208 lots, or 12.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,806 2,884 2,806 2,854 2,797 2,849 52 7,070 13,678
Aug-19 2,859 2,939 2,856 2,898 2,846 2,897 51 38,760 164,886
Sep-19 2,878 2,952 2,874 2,917 2,864 2,918 54 3,825,140 1,976,798
Nov-19 2,934 2,978 2,930 2,947 2,894 2,958 64 1,904 7,780
Dec-19 2,928 2,970 2,911 2,949 2,892 2,953 61 206 826
Jan-20 2,923 2,989 2,918 2,958 2,903 2,959 56 437,284 426,878
Mar-20 2,822 2,920 2,822 2,890 2,816 2,881 65 402 930
May-20 2,717 2,770 2,712 2,749 2,706 2,745 39 103,442 206,132
Palm Oil
Turnover: 462,506 lots, or 20.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-19 – – – 4,076 4,076 4,076 0 0 0
Jul-19 – – – 4,414 4,414 4,414 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 4,378 4,378 4,378 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,344 4,382 4,338 4,370 4,366 4,364 -2 404,534 617,726
Oct-19 – – – 4,494 4,494 4,494 0 0 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,530 4,530 4,530 0 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,482 4,484 4,482 -2 0 12
Jan-20 4,510 4,558 4,510 4,550 4,538 4,540 2 55,490 132,344
Feb-20 – – – 4,604 4,604 4,604 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,756 4,754 4,756 2 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,662 4,662 4,662 0 0 2
May-20 4,696 4,742 4,696 4,730 4,718 4,722 4 2,482 7,674
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 411,932 lots, or 22.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,374 5,374 5,374 5,374 5,402 5,374 -28 6 34
Sep-19 5,404 5,466 5,400 5,460 5,432 5,442 10 350,342 769,036
Nov-19 – – – 5,516 5,516 5,516 0 0 2
Dec-19 5,548 5,578 5,548 5,578 5,588 5,564 -24 88 28
Jan-20 5,568 5,620 5,556 5,612 5,588 5,596 8 58,108 163,298
Mar-20 – – – 5,642 5,634 5,642 8 0 12
May-20 5,660 5,704 5,650 5,700 5,670 5,688 18 3,388 13,042
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322