Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 8 higher at 153’27, 10 Yr. Notes 5 higher at 127’04.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 3 higher at 117’21.25. Of technical interest, even though the t lead month Bond chart looks like an inverted head and shoulders, the week of June 7th the market made a high of 155’22 only one tick above the resistance established the week of Dec. 22nd 2018 of 155’21. Fundamentally the market appears to have built-in a rate cut predicted for July. Personally I question the need for it, seeing as the job market is as tight as it has been in decades. I believe a rate cut will eventually be recessionary and will provide me with reason to abandon current short positions in 5 yr. Notes and the long Dec. 19/ short Dec. 20 Eurodollar spread.
Grains: July Corn is currently 6’4 higher at 436’4, Beans 3’6 higher at 881’6 and Wheat1’6 higher at 528’0. This weeks Grain Report was Bullish Corn, showing a smaller than expected carry out, a cut in expected production from 14.5 billion bushels to 13.68 billion bushels and a cut in yield to 166 bushels per acre from an expected 172.4 bpa. For the moment I remain long Dec. (new crop)/short July (old crop). This spread has given up recent gains with the July gaining 2’6 cents early this morning providing an opportunity to put the spread on under 16’0 cents.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have moved sideways for the week albeit with many triple digit swings. I am looking to late 3rd quarter-early fourth quarter for buying opportunities. I remain short the August 102 put.
Silver: July Silver is currently 4 cents higher at 14.79. On recently purchased additional contracts I am raising my protective sell stop to 14.19.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are 7.75 higher at 2888.25. I will try the short side on rallies with buy stops above the lead month high of 2961.00.
Currencies: I am on the sidelines until after British elections