About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Tuesday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,903 12,988-14,859 15,030 14,420
Corn Yield 170.3 162.5-175.0 176.0 176.4
Soybean Production 4,092 3,860-4,240 4,150 4,544
Soybean Yield 48.7 47.5-49.6 49.5 51.6
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSource 13,987 168.0 4,011 48.5
Agrivisor 14,270 173.0 4,189 49.0
Allendale 14,174 170.7 4,113 49.0
DC Analysis 13,577 N/A 4,177 N/A
Doane 13,000 162.5 4,085 47.5
Farm Futures 13,589 168.4 4,107 48.3
INTL FCStone 13,606 169.0 4,062 48.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,260 171.0 4,106 49.0
North Star 13,923 169.0 3,904 48.0
Price Group 13,480 170.0 4,120 48.0
Prime Ag 14,689 172.0 4,106 49.0
RMC 14,220 174.0 4,240 49.6
US Commodities 14,859 174.0 4,150 49.5
Vantage RM 12,988 170.0 3,860 48.7
Western Milling 13,237 167.2 4,087 48.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,596 175.0 4,150 49.5

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019-20 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Tuesday.
2019-20 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA May USDA 2018-19
All Wheat 1,891 1,837-1,952 1,897 1,884
Winter Wheat 1,255 1,194-1,316 1,268 1,184
Hard Red Winter 766 662-816 780 662
Soft Red Winter 263 252-286 265 286
White Winter 228 215-252 224 236
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Agrivisor 1,864 1,235 755 260 220
Allendale 1,876 1,269 783 262 224
DC Analysis 1,920 1,291 812 255 224
Doane 1,850 1,227 N/A N/A N/A
Farm Futures 1,952 1,234 762 257 215
INTL FCStone 1,881 1,266 786 256 224
Sid Love Consulting 1,913 1,284 800 260 224
North Star 1,877 1,265 780 260 225
Price Group 1,887 1,258 765 265 228
Prime Ag 1,897 N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1,922 1,297 816 257 224
RMC 1,894 1,194 662 286 236
Vantage RM 1,852 1,231 696 283 252
Western Milling 1,945 1,316 810 260 246
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,837 1,208 735 252 221

DJ U.S. June Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA May
Corn 2,165 2,035-2,485 2,095
Soybeans 1,010 920-1,079 995
Wheat 1,113 1,077-1,128 1,127
2019-20
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,731 1,133-2,404 2,485
Soybeans 987 825-1,346 970
Wheat 1,115 1,025-1,180 1,141
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSource 2,095 995 N/A 1,580 835 N/A
Agrivisor 2,095 1,020 1,095 1,725 994 1,076
Allendale 2,245 995 1,115 2,079 993 1,106
DC Analysis 2,235 1,047 1,127 1,552 1,036 1,155
Doane 2,220 1,035 1,095 1,250 940 1,025
Farm Futures 2,206 986 1,118 1,467 1,006 1,130
INTL FCStone 2,485 1,079 1,120 1,554 1,346 1,079
Sid Love Consulting 2,095 1,020 1,127 1,991 1,046 1,180
Northstar 2,110 1,000 1,127 1,633 854 1,141
Price Group 2,095 995 1,110 1,665 991 1,114
Prime-Ag 2,145 1,020 1,127 2,200 950 1,141
RJ O’Brien 2,190 1,062 1,122 1,899 1,161 1,177
RMC 2,035 920 1,087 1,835 875 1,097
US Commodities 2,145 990 1,120 2,404 970 1,135
Vantage RM 2,145 980 1,077 1,133 825 1,095
Western Milling 2,125 1,024 1,128 1,312 978 1,100
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,145 1,005 1,117 2,151 980 1,091

DJ June Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 99.8 96.0-102.0 100.0
Soybeans 117.0 116.0-118.0 117.0
Corn Soybeans
Allendale 99.00 117.00
Agrivisor 100.00 117.00
DC Analysis 100.00 117.00
Doane 100.00 117.00
Farm Futures 101.00 117.00
INTL FCStone 98.20 116.50
North Star 100.00 117.00
Price Group 100.00 117.00
Prime Ag 101.00 117.00
RMC 96.00 116.00
US Commodities 100.50 118.00
Western Milling 102.00 117.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 100.00 118.00
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 49.0 48.0-50.0 49.0
Soybeans 56.1 55.5-57.0 56.0
Corn Soybeans
Allendale 48.50 56.50
Agrivisor 49.00 56.00
DC Analysis 48.00 56.00
Doane 49.00 56.00
Farm Futures 48.00 55.90
INTL FCStone 48.50 56.50
North Star 49.00 56.00
Price Group 49.00 56.00
Prime Ag 50.00 56.00
RMC 48.00 55.50
US Commodities 49.50 56.50
Western Milling 50.00 57.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 50.00 56.00

DJ June World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA May
Corn 323.6 314.0-328.4 325.9
Soybeans 113.1 107.4-115.4 113.2
Wheat 274.6 272.1-276.0 275.0
2019-20
Average Range USDA May
Corn 301.6 285.0-315.0 314.7
Soybeans 114.7 108.0-136.2 113.1
Wheat 288.2 276.4-293.0 293.0
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Agrivisor 325.9 113.2 275.0 295.0 114.0 290.5
Allendale 322.7 113.3 273.8 308.2 114.3 291.5
Doane 328.0 115.0 276.0 295.0 113.0 288.0
Farm Futures 316.0 112.4 273.0 285.0 110.0 290.0
INTL FCStone 321.4 115.4 274.5 300.3 136.2 276.4
Northstar 326.0 113.2 275.0 295.0 111.0 293.0
Prime-Ag 327.0 114.0 275.0 310.0 113.0 291.0
RMC 314.0 107.4 275.6 315.0 108.0 277.0
US Commodities 324.0 113.0 275.5 314.0 114.0 292.0
Western Milling 326.0 112.0 275.0 289.7 112.0 292.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 328.4 115.4 272.1 310.4 116.3 288.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher as the market reacted to a positive export sales reports and some news stories about the dry weather in growing areas of Russia and Ukraine. It is hot and dry enough there that many analysts are cutting planted area ideas and yield potential. Prices at Black Sea ports are firming due to the potential production losses. Forecasts for dry weather in parts of Europe continue, and eastern and northern sections of Europe could turn hot. It has also been dry in Australia. Parts of India and Pakistan have been hot and dry as the monsoon has not yet started. Forecasts now call for the monsoon to start very soon, but the rains are already late in arriving and some private forecasts call for below normal rains this season
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get frequent precipitation this week and a drier weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on this week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 503, 488, and 481 July, with resistance at 515, 522, and 529 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 443, 412, and 376 July. Support is at 445, 444, and 441 July, with resistance at 461, 463, and 474 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 556, 551, and 540=5 July, and resistance is at 568, 576, and 581 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher as a big sale of Rice to Iraq appeared in the weekly sales report and as the weather in the Delta remained bad for planting. The sale to Iraq had been known to the market for a while, but it was nice to see it reported in the USDA data.. A big storm moved through Texas with flooding rains and is now in the Delta. It will move into the Southeast this weekend. The system could affect crops in Arkansas and Missouri. It has remained mostly wet in the Mid South, but there have been drier areas where work is getting done. Active progress is hoped for again this week, but there will be some acres from southern Missouri into Arkansas and Mississippi that will not get planted at all. Growing areas near the Gulf Coast and in Texas are reporting better crop progress and mostly good conditions. Texas and some Louisiana crops have gone into flood. Trends are still up on the weekly charts and are trying to turn up again on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1162, 1158, and 1153 July, with resistance at 1183, 1190, and 1200 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in spite of a bad weekly export sales report as the market wondered about production and also saw the big rally in Wheat. The weather seems slightly improved and there is talk of more planting progress this week. Ideas are that the crop could be about 80% planted in the reports on Monday. That might be about all that gets done as it is getting very late and farmers might not want to take the additional risk of crops that will be harvested very late and after the freeze date in many areas. The areas farthest behind are in the southern and eastern Midwest and this is where most of the rain is forecast to fall for the next week or more. There is still a lot of Corn to be planted and in some areas a lot of preparatory field work before planting can be done. Some of the area will not get planted this year, the only question is how much. Some analysts and producers also expect lower yields due to the late planting dates and extremely difficult conditions for planting this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 401, 391, and 381 July. Support is at 412, 407, and 405 July, and resistance is at 423, 431, and 436 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 270 and 262 July. Support is at 296, 292, and 290 July, and resistance is at 304, 307, and 310 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower, but Soybean Oil was higher. It was a choppy session that saw Soybeans on both sides of unchanged before closing slightly lower. Ideas of bad Midwest weather and less production are still around, but there is talk that some farmers in the eastern Corn Belt will try to plant Soybeans if they can’t plant Corn. Forecasts for some areas of the Midwest are mixed, with some calling for more wet weather and others looking for drier weather to return. There is still time this month to get Soybeans planted and a good crop. Crop conditions for emergence and initial growth are also bad as it is too wet and too cold for best growth in much of the Midwest. Soybeans have been slower to react than Corn as most producers try to plant Corn first and because of the trade wars with China combined with increased potential for South America to take over the market at this time. The market is worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there.
Overnight News: Egypt bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 849 and 819 July. Support is at 858, 848, and 838 July, and resistance is at 874, 879, and 890 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 308.00 y 296.00. Support is at 310.00, 305.00, and 303.00 July, and resistance is at 321.00, 323.00, and 325.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2750, 2700, and 2670 July, with resistance at 2800, 2820, and 2830 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday. Support came from more reports of dry weather in Canada. The dry weather has allowed for rapid planting but poor initial growth. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was a little lower on the first day of trading after the two-day holiday. A higher Ringgit was negative for prices.. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China cn increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 448.00 and 441.00 July. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 441.00 July, with resistance at 462.00, 464.00, and 467.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2020, 1990, and 1960 August, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 August.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 7
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 2, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2245.6 602.4 159.6 272.5 65.6 909.0 288.8 308.0 5517.6
Week Ago 2067.0 576.4 184.3 246.3 61.7 794.5 236.6 345.3 5155.6
Year Ago 1955.8 373.7 130.8 263.7 50.9 928.4 218.9 177.6 4577.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 625.6 155.1 36.9 54.1 9.3 469.1 94.1 9.5 1528.9
Week Ago 348.3 100.7 21.2 26.8 8.2 304.2 47.6 9.2 920.3
To Date 18295.2 3825.2 1878.4 3057.1 347.8 15384.9 2893.7 479.2 49522.4
Year Ago 15338.9 3172.5 1844.6 2720.1 376.3 16256.3 2530.0 544.6 46367.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS – Note: Large revisions have been reported by licensed
elevators that affected Crop Year to Date totals this week.
This Week 388.0 130.5 17.4 22.0 6.7 143.8 33.5 31.3 821.7
Week Ago 375.8 95.2 4.0 25.8 5.0 82.3 52.4 23.6 694.3
To Date 17625.1 4266.6 373.8 1889.5 127.4 8418.1 1691.1 1219.8 41428.7
Year Ago 15216.5 3735.6 195.8 1593.1 182.4 9302.1 1655.9 960.1 38143.3
EXPORTS
This Week 420.7 75.0 12.2 0.7 1.7 151.1 22.3 71.3 792.8
Week Ago 462.0 81.3 18.2 37.5 15.4 85.1 90.8 10.5 858.9
To Date 15663.7 3719.2 1311.2 2032.5 211.3 7899.6 1721.0 1506.0 38231.6
Year Ago 13807.3 3405.0 1336.8 1735.3 264.8 8807.0 1780.2 915.9 35904.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 121.1 15.0 5.1 19.7 1.2 165.0 2.4 26.3 381.0
Week Ago 61.4 2.2 6.2 19.3 0.7 198.4 2.5 21.5 340.1
To Date 3494.1 300.9 261.6 971.1 49.2 7966.1 179.1 980.2 16110.4
Year Ago 4050.5 634.9 259.4 1049.6 48.4 7917.2 199.7 708.6 17046.5
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in southern and eastern areas by the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +57 July +163 July +80 July +55 July +1 July
July +45 July +80 July +45 July
August +32 September +75 September +39 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 125 July -15 July 30 July
August 125 August -13 August 20 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 5
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 5 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 443.10 dn 2.20
Track Thunder Bay 463.20 dn 2.90
Track Vancouver 470.20 dn 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jun 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 512.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 522.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 475.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 402.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2020.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 138.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1570)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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