Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 1523’18, 10 Yr. Notes 1 higher at 127’00.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’00..50 lower at 117’22.0.Late last week President Trump announced a 5.00% tariff on goods imported from Mexico sending equities into a 2 day tailspin and treasuries to new recent highs in a flight to safety, stopping us out of short positions in both Bonds and 10 Yr. Note short positions. This rally steepened the yield curve with the 5 Yr. now 4 basis points premium to the 2 Yr. and the 2 YR. now 28 basis pts. below the 10 Yr. from up from 14 pts. Of note Fed. Member Bullard has stated that he thinks a rate cut is imminent. Ever the contrarian I’m still short the 5 Yr. Note and spread long Dec 19/short Dec. 20 Eurodollars which has moved 8 points in favor of the Dec. 19 contract. In essence, I’m taking Fed. Chairman Powell’s word that any action will be data dependent and so far the Data looks good. Unemployment Report tomorrow could change my thinking if numbers are extraordinarily disappointing.
Grains: July Corn is currently 7’2 lower at 407’4, Beans 11’4 lower at 858’2 and Wheat1’4 lower at 489’4. Now that Rain and Flooding seems to have peaked out farmers have once again been able to start returning to their fields and get back to planting. Most market participants feel the Corn crop will see diminishing yields and that the total crop could be as low as 12.6 billion bushels, well behind recent crops of 14+ billion bushels. To be honest I am hesitant to predict a price for new crop other than to speculate that new crop prices will be higher than old crop, hence, we remain long Dec./short July Corn from 16’4 premium the Dec. (now at 18’6).
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have continued to work sideways to slightly high in a still predominately down trending market. During the last week we reinstated the short Aug. 102 put position at 145 points or better, currently at 180. I will look to take profits below 100 points. Lower feed prices should give these markets a boost.
Silver: July Silver is currently 17.5 cents higher at 14.97, up 55 cents for the week. I remain long. I suggest raising protective sell stops on additional contracts recently purchased from 13.88 to 14.23.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 8.50 higher at 2836.25. The market has shrugged off the Mexican tariff news and has had a tremendous rally. I am looking to go short with a protective buy stop at 2862.00 and a downside objective of 2780.00
Currencies: I am on the sidelines.