Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. April Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Jun 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2019—- —-Mar 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 130,238,762 287,176,470 130,473,137 287,693,267
coffee, roasted 8,056,946 17,765,566 8,273,472 18,243,006
instant 4,355,888 9,604,733 3,768,829 8,310,268
cocoa beans 55,902,161 123,264,265 42,333,732 93,345,879
10 lbs or over 1,771,611 3,906,402 2,421,287 5,338,938
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 10,180,174 22,447,284 10,092,892 22,254,827
not defatted 2,521,472 5,559,846 4,129,246 9,104,987
defatted 4,352,189 9,596,577 5,133,076 11,318,433
unsweetened 12,171,588 26,838,352 9,013,308 19,874,344
sweetened 60,260 132,873 110,968 244,684
coating 3,753,723 8,276,959 3,372,693 7,436,788
chocolate 9,725,729 21,445,232 8,719,261 19,225,971
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 6
For the week ended May 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -26.0 501.9 25842.1 23723.9 1628.1 4235.4
hrw 1.6 209.9 9399.4 9311.1 808.2 1683.8
srw -30.0 45.3 3332.1 2512.9 128.6 709.6
hrs 0.0 196.8 7152.4 6173.6 376.2 1009.7
white 2.5 27.9 5454.5 5321.0 290.8 646.5
durum -0.2 22.0 503.7 405.4 24.4 185.7
corn -8.8 23.5 48238.2 55300.4 7867.7 2613.9
soybeans 510.0 73.7 46682.0 55630.1 11769.2 1519.7
soymeal 110.8 2.1 11005.8 11039.1 2735.6 562.2
soyoil 15.4 0.0 756.5 885.0 149.8 4.2
upland cotton 182.3 51.6 15093.2 16262.7 4804.6 3689.3
pima cotton 2.0 0.3 710.8 626.5 176.3 50.8
sorghum 0.6 0.0 1560.3 5105.2 465.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.2 61.2 32.5 18.7 31.8
rice 126.4 21.1 3138.2 2835.4 645.7 49.5
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trading yesterday. Traders are waiting for the USD export sales reports this morning and also were worried about demand from Mexico for US Cotton. Mexico and the US met today to try to avoid a tariff war but no agreement was made by the two sides. US Cotton planting progress remains good. Cotton planting progress has been on par with the five-year average and ideas of big crops are keeping prices weaker. There are some concerns that the cold May weather from Texas to the East Coast might cause lower yields this Fall. Also pressuring the market are forecasts for big production around the world. USDA sees no shortage of Cotton anywhere in the coming year. However, it could be that the Indian monsoon gets off to a slow start and production potential gets hurt there and in Pakistan. It has been dry so far and is turning hotter, but this is considered pre monsoonal weather. Ideas are that the monsoon will get started in the next few days. It has also been hot and dry in central Russia and Kazakhstan, but more moderate conditions are possible next week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have scattered showers today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 63.67 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 81,462 bales, from 81,218 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7190 and 7560 July. Support is at 6800, 6740, and 6680 July, with resistance of 6990, 7150, and 7240 July.
DJ U.S. April Cotton Exports-Jun 6
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19 Apr 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 23,711,754 29,595,798 18,247,137 20,321,427
1 to 1 1/8 inch 103,818,495 133,680,644 94,958,960 167,507,050
upland 1 1/8 and over 248,146,768 286,568,070 199,117,394 279,690,549
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 7,205,404 9,659,747 10,838,794 11,155,466
All cotton 382,882,421 459,504,259 323,162,285 478,674,492
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19 Apr 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 108,907 135,932 83,808 93,336
1 to 1 1/8 inch 476,834 613,990 436,143 769,354
upland 1 1/8 and over 1,139,729 1,316,196 914,539 1,284,608
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 33,094 44,367 49,782 51,237
All cotton 1,758,565 2,110,486 1,484,272 2,198,534
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on speculative selling that was called long liquidation. Speculators have been covering short positions and going to long positions as the hurricane season got underway. A tropical system has threatened to bring some significant rains to the Houston area. This is away from any big citrus production, but the storm means that the season has started right on time. In the meantime, it is turning hot and dry in Florida, and the system in the Gulf is not expected to hit the state. It will stay to the north instead. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are about as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 102.00, 100.00, and 97.00 July, with resistance at 108.00, 113.00, and 117.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower on speculative selling and not much selling interest. The Brazil harvest is still moving along at a slow pace. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Buyers are now more actively pursuing other origins, especially for certified or higher end coffees. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Earlier dry conditions also have apparently hurt the Vietnamese crop as it is being harvested. Arrivals from producers have been disappointing. The charts show that both markets could trade in a sideways to up pattern for now as the market looks at weather and production potential of the next crop.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.389 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.08 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions, with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 90.00 July, and resistance is at 103.00, 106.00 and 108.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1330 July, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1520 July.
General Comments: Futures closed lower as the Real was stable and some rains seemed to filter into India. Trends on the daily charts turned up with the price action earlier this week, and futures started to test the breakout level yesterday. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil has been off to a slow start and yields have been down due to the wet weather seen in central-south growing areas. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. It is hot and dry there so far, but there are signs that the monsoon is ready to develop. The government weather services there is looking for a normal monsoon, but many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand. Demand for Sugar has been average, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1290 and 1370 July. Support is at 1210, 1200, and 1180 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1300, and 1330 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 346.00 and 362.00 August. Support is at 332.00, 329.00, and 325.00 August, and resistance is at 339.00, 344.00, and 345.00 August.
General Comments: Futures moved higher and New York is now at resistance areas from the breakdown point seen on Tuesday. London managed to move slightly above those levels and is trying to climb ack into the recent short-term trading range.. The charts show that a short-term top is still there, but the down trends might be offset today if the market moves even a little higher. The mid crop harvest is active in West Africa and reports are generally positive, although some Nigerian producers have complained that the weather is not giving them the best conditions for top yields. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Periods of showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, and most in West Africa expect a very good mid crop harvest. Cameroon and Nigeria are reporting less production and prices there are reported strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 4.63=9 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2300, 2250, and 2210 July. Support is at 2350, 2330, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2450 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1740, 1700, and 1640 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1730 July, with resistance at 1800, 1810, and 1820 July.