About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 6
For the week ended May 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -26.0 501.9 25842.1 23723.9 1628.1 4235.4
hrw 1.6 209.9 9399.4 9311.1 808.2 1683.8
srw -30.0 45.3 3332.1 2512.9 128.6 709.6
hrs 0.0 196.8 7152.4 6173.6 376.2 1009.7
white 2.5 27.9 5454.5 5321.0 290.8 646.5
durum -0.2 22.0 503.7 405.4 24.4 185.7
corn -8.8 23.5 48238.2 55300.4 7867.7 2613.9
soybeans 510.0 73.7 46682.0 55630.1 11769.2 1519.7
soymeal 110.8 2.1 11005.8 11039.1 2735.6 562.2
soyoil 15.4 0.0 756.5 885.0 149.8 4.2
upland cotton 182.3 51.6 15093.2 16262.7 4804.6 3689.3
pima cotton 2.0 0.3 710.8 626.5 176.3 50.8
sorghum 0.6 0.0 1560.3 5105.2 465.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.2 61.2 32.5 18.7 31.8
rice 126.4 21.1 3138.2 2835.4 645.7 49.5

DJ U.S. April Grain Imports-Jun 6
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2019—- —-Mar 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds

durum wheat 72,575 160,028 3,984,311 8,785,406
spring wheat 5,132,449 11,317,050 5,657,694 12,475,215
winter wheat 694,123 1,530,541 458,568 1,011,142
wheat/meslin 46,631,529 102,822,521 32,373,957 71,384,575
TOTAL WHEAT 52,530,676 115,830,141 42,474,530 93,656,339
barley 8,784,115 19,368,974 5,896,968 13,002,814
oats 1,875,712 4,135,945 1,695,003 3,737,482
corn 31,048,525 68,461,998 55,498,842 122,374,947
other corn 3,143,044 6,930,412 4,781,667 10,543,576
TOTAL CORN 34,191,569 75,392,410 60,280,509 132,918,522

DJ U.S. Apr Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Jun 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2019—- —-Mar 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 46,616,982 102,790,445 21,481,727 47,367,208
palm kernel oil 29,094,752 64,153,928 25,182,347 55,527,075
palm oil 83,309,456 183,697,350 152,533,909 336,337,269
soybean 33,175,834 73,152,714 34,106,249 75,204,279
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 13,182,744 29,067,951 13,806,229 30,442,735
rapeseed oil
edible 156,815,231 345,777,584 149,807,380 330,325,273
rapeseed oil,
inedible 0 0 29,101 64,168

DJ U.S. April Grain Exports-Jun 6
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19 Apr 18(*)
Barley 4,307,261 4,178,585 5,489,650 1,519,432
Corn /1 5,472,181,000 4,770,645,000 3,616,868,000 7,712,105,000
Sorghum 124,286,000 155,479,000 304,705,000 787,437,000
Oats 1,536,428 3,025,349 2,646,264 2,537,527
Rye 30,000 0 46,000 72,000
Wheat /1 2,842,959,881 1,969,681,565 2,285,227,870 1,942,027,188
wheat flour /1 22,935,912 22,872,007 24,921,853 21,109,039
Malt 35,137,117 33,395,882 34,499,204 37,454,319
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19 Apr 18(*)
Barley 197,829 191,919 252,135 69,786
Corn /1 215,428,039 187,810,070 142,388,342 303,609,047
Sorghum 4,892,873 6,120,875 11,995,583 30,999,707
Oats 105,850 208,428 182,311 174,820
Rye 1,181 0 1,811 2,834
Wheat /1 104,459,822 72,372,666 83,966,889 71,356,552
wheat flour /1 505,650 504,242 549,433 465,375
Malt 77,464,096 73,625,330 76,057,739 82,572,653
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. April Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jun 6
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19 Apr 18(*)
soybeans 2,399,256,207 3,706,545,782 4,577,364,744 2,167,385,571
soyoil 67,260,563 123,304,166 41,656,639 96,322,199
crude 54,848,471 105,920,622 29,230,159 74,547,873
refined 269,364 129,031 74,299 133,339
other/1 11,760,032 16,580,273 12,102,016 21,357,712
hydrogenated 382,696 674,240 250,165 283,275
cottonseed oil 1,834,714 5,445,670 2,614,588 3,083,000
crude 50,033 35,498 70,727 51,938
refined 1,350,346 4,327,610 1,914,644 1,426,262
other/1 434,335 1,082,562 629,217 1,604,800
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 13,964 194,877 20,412 202,581
sunseed oil 3,418,492 5,300,889 2,729,318 3,427,791
rapeseed 48,499,551 7,757,865 26,690,888 11,986,959
rapeseed oil 6,277,562 10,708,041 6,513,300 11,131,787
crude 466,400 5,744,495 942,103 6,945,909
refined 5,811,162 4,963,546 5,571,197 4,185,878
linseed meal 84,329 226,759 0 199,807
cottonseed meal 10,785,281 9,277,529 11,456,804 10,272,793
soymeal 1,007,722,086 763,932,135 787,412,007 939,851,833
soymeal/flour 249,266,524 298,109,814 200,862,800 252,977,286
soymeal hulls 13,508,000 6,244,000 7,924,000 12,332,000
lard 838,291 962,910 1,007,426 1,683,218
edible tallow 9,480,138 9,004,718 9,121,219 12,215,621
inedible tallow 28,534,460 28,903,310 18,742,291 31,923,007
ch white grease 8,894 27,761 9,960 8,033
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Apr 19 Mar 19 Feb 19 Apr 18(*)
soybeans 88,156,670 136,190,846 168,187,637 79,636,970
soyoil 148,284,184 271,839,200 91,837,184 212,354,135
crude 120,920,201 233,515,039 64,441,481 164,349,955
refined 593,846 284,465 163,801 293,962
other/1 25,926,437 36,553,251 26,680,383 47,085,703
hydrogenated 843,700 1,486,445 551,520 624,515
cottonseed oil 4,044,853 12,005,649 5,764,181 6,796,853
crude 110,304 78,260 155,926 114,504
refined 2,977,004 9,540,749 4,221,068 3,144,370
other/1 957,545 2,386,641 1,387,186 3,537,979
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 30,785 429,630 45,001 446,615
sunseed oil 7,536,486 11,686,462 6,017,117 7,556,987
rapeseed 106,923,226 17,103,168 58,843,346 26,426,726
rapeseed oil 13,839,658 23,607,193 14,359,371 24,541,394
crude 1,028,236 12,664,446 2,076,982 15,313,111
refined 12,811,421 10,942,748 12,282,389 9,228,283
linseed meal 93 250 0 220
cottonseed meal 11,889 10,227 12,629 11,324
soymeal 1,110,812 842,082 867,964 1,035,999
soymeal flour/me 274,766 328,606 221,411 278,857
soymeal hulls 14,890 6,883 8,735 13,594
lard 1,848,116 2,122,854 2,220,995 3,710,861
edible tallow 20,900,130 19,852,008 20,108,849 26,930,839
inedible tallow 62,907,727 63,720,902 41,319,686 70,378,195
ch white grease 19,608 61,203 21,958 17,710

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower once again after USDA showed better than expected crop conditions for US Winter and Spring Wheat. The market had anticipated deteriorating conditions. The market still talks about dry conditions in parts of Russia, but some forecasts now all for weather to improve there and in Kazakhstan next week. Forecasts for dry weather in parts of Europe continue, and eastern and northern sections of Europe could turn hot. It has also been dry in Australia. Parts of India and Pakistan have been hot and dry as the monsoon has not yet started. Forecasts now call for the monsoon to start very soon, but the rains are already late in arriving and some private forecasts call for below normal rains this season
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get frequent precipitation this week and a drier weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on this week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 473, 445, and 406 July. Support is at 481, 473, and 469 July, with resistance at 503, 515, and 522 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 443, 412, and 376 July. Support is at 445, 444, and 439 July, with resistance at 461, 463, and 474 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 531 and 506 July. Support is at 545, 543, and 540 July, and resistance is at 553, 556, and 561 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower in consolidation trading. The weather remains key to market direction, and the weather could be about to take a turn for the worst. Traders are wondering just how much Rice is getting planted this year, with most of the concern about lost area noted in Mississippi and Arkansas. A big storm is in the Gulf and appears likely to threaten crops in Texas with flooding rains. The system should move north after that and could affect crops in Arkansas and Missouri. It has remained mostly wet in the Mid South, but Rice is getting planted. Active progress is hoped for again this week, but there will be some acres from southern Missouri into Arkansas and Mississippi that will not get planted at all. Growing areas near the Gulf Coast and in Texas are reporting better crop progress and mostly good conditions. Texas and some Louisiana crops have gone into flood. Trends are still up on the weekly charts and are trying to turn up again on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1158, 1153, and 1138 July, with resistance at 1175, 1183, and 1190 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on fund selling. There was no real news to account for the selloff, but that might have been the point as bull markets need a constant flow of news to support buying. Instead, the weather seems slightly improved and funds and other speculators decided to sell after the recent strong rally. The trade this week has been disappointing considering the planting progress shown by USDA on Monday, but there are ideas that the progress can improve a little this week. However, the areas farthest behind are in the southern and eastern Midwest and this is where most of the rain is forecast to fall for the next week or more. There is still a lot of Corn to be planted and in some areas a lot of preparatory field work before planting can be done. Some of the area will not get planted this year, the only question is how much. Some analysts and producers also expect lower yields due to the late planting dates and extremely difficult conditions for planting this year.
Overnight News: Ethanol production slipped to 1.044 million barrels per day this week, from 1.057 million the previous week, and from 1.041 million the previous year. Ethanol stocks remain unchanged for the week at 22.6 million barrels. Ethanol production used 106.4 million bushels of Corn this week, from 107.7 million last week and 106.8 million last year. Corn used to produce Ethanol is 4.093 billion bushels this year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 401, 391, and 381 July. Support is at 412, 408, and 405 July, and resistance is at 418, 423, and 431 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 291, 270, and 262 July. Support is at 289, 287, and 286 July, and resistance is at 296, 298, and 301 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling. Ideas of bad Midwest weather and less production are still around, but selling came yesterday as forecasts for some areas of the Midwest turned dryer. USDA showed very slow progress in planting the crop after the close on Monday, but there is still time this month to get Soybeans planted and a good crop. Showers and storms are in the forecast for the Midwest starting about the middle of this week, but most of these systems will be in southern and eastern areas. Northern and western areas could be a little drier. US weather remains poor for planting Soybeans as well as Corn and planting of both crops is well behind normal. Crop conditions for emergence and initial growth are also bad as it is too wet and too cold for best growth in much of the Midwest. Soybeans have been slower to react than Corn as most producers try to plant Corn first and because of the trade wars with China combined with increased potential for South America to take over the market at this time. The market is worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 849 and 819 July. Support is at 864, 858, and 848 July, and resistance is at 879, 890, and 894 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 308.00 y 296.00. Support is at 316.00, 310.00, and 305.00 July, and resistance is at 321.00, 323.00, and 325.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2770, 2800, and 2820 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday as the Canadian Dollar moved higher and Chicago moved lower. Support came from more reports of dry weather in Canada. The dry weather has allowed for rapid planting but poor initial growth. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was closed for Eid. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China cn increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 448.00 and 441.00 July. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 441.00 July, with resistance at 456.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2020, 1990, and 1960 August, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in southern and eastern areas by the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +57 July +163 July +80 July +55 July +1 July
July +45 July +80 July +45 July
August +32 September +75 September +39 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 125 July -15 July 30 July
August 125 August -13 August 20 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 5
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 5 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 443.10 dn 2.20
Track Thunder Bay 463.20 dn 2.90
Track Vancouver 470.20 dn 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,034 lots, or 6.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,518 3,518 3,500 3,500 3,573 3,500 -73 42 902
Sep-19 3,563 3,580 3,510 3,515 3,587 3,538 -49 156,086 110,266
Nov-19 3,496 3,496 3,456 3,460 3,514 3,467 -47 28 124
Jan-20 3,553 3,555 3,493 3,497 3,569 3,519 -50 14,034 40,892
Mar-20 – – – 3,491 3,540 3,491 -49 0 36
May-20 3,593 3,602 3,550 3,554 3,611 3,569 -42 2,844 19,394
Corn
Turnover: 1,010,982 lots, or 19.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,922 1,925 1,911 1,917 1,925 1,916 -9 10,804 54,954
Sep-19 1,964 1,968 1,952 1,955 1,964 1,958 -6 703,978 969,736
Nov-19 1,997 2,001 1,985 1,989 1,997 1,988 -9 66,260 227,462
Jan-20 2,029 2,034 2,016 2,022 2,031 2,022 -9 213,752 481,022
Mar-20 2,041 2,049 2,033 2,038 2,047 2,038 -9 500 9,674
May-20 2,093 2,102 2,087 2,095 2,101 2,093 -8 15,688 48,860
Soymeal
Turnover: 4,698,866 lots, or 13.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,909 2,909 2,813 2,815 2,925 2,850 -75 16,180 26,706
Aug-19 2,951 2,952 2,864 2,874 2,979 2,921 -58 70,580 120,238
Sep-19 2,953 2,958 2,867 2,874 2,976 2,906 -70 3,975,558 1,991,974
Nov-19 2,999 2,999 2,900 2,908 3,002 2,938 -64 1,936 7,148
Dec-19 2,975 2,977 2,883 2,894 2,987 2,911 -76 348 882
Jan-20 2,988 2,988 2,895 2,904 2,998 2,931 -67 540,162 402,268
Mar-20 2,880 2,880 2,800 2,800 2,890 2,831 -59 142 1,212
May-20 2,752 2,760 2,685 2,693 2,765 2,711 -54 93,960 195,214
Palm Oil
Turnover: 518,716 lots, or 22.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-19 – – – 4,076 4,076 4,076 0 0 0
Jul-19 – – – 4,414 4,414 4,414 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 4,466 4,466 4,466 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,420 4,436 4,376 4,390 4,416 4,400 -16 478,054 595,098
Oct-19 4,542 4,542 4,452 4,452 4,504 4,494 -10 14 14
Nov-19 4,564 4,614 4,564 4,614 4,704 4,588 -116 4 32
Dec-19 4,550 4,550 4,550 4,550 4,670 4,550 -120 8 12
Jan-20 4,576 4,588 4,534 4,550 4,574 4,558 -16 36,290 122,882
Feb-20 – – – 4,618 4,634 4,618 -16 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,754 4,770 4,754 -16 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,676 4,692 4,676 -16 0 2
May-20 4,750 4,754 4,694 4,724 4,738 4,720 -18 4,346 5,950
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 532,838 lots, or 29.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,436 5,436 5,436 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,304 5,304 5,304 5,304 5,394 5,304 -90 2 32
Sep-19 5,450 5,490 5,414 5,440 5,454 5,446 -8 468,570 787,646
Nov-19 – – – 5,516 5,516 5,516 0 0 2
Dec-19 5,570 5,570 5,554 5,554 5,600 5,566 -34 8 18
Jan-20 5,602 5,636 5,564 5,588 5,602 5,592 -10 60,232 157,518
Mar-20 – – – 5,658 5,658 5,658 0 0 12
May-20 5,690 5,720 5,650 5,664 5,684 5,694 10 4,026 9,888
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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