About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower after USDA showed better than expected crop conditions for US Winter and Spring Wheat. The market had anticipated deteriorating conditions, but USDA showed strong condition, and especially strong condition for Spring Wheat. The market still talks about dry conditions in parts of Russia, but some forecasts now all for weather to improve their and in Kazakhstan next week. Forecasts for dry weather in parts of Europe continue, and eastern and northern sections of Europe could turn hot. It has also been dry in Australia. Parts of India and Pakistan have been hot and dry as the monsoon has not yet started. Forecasts now call for the monsoon to start very soon, but the rains are already late in arriving and some private forecasts call for below normal rains this season
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get frequent precipitation this week and a drier weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on this week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 527, 537, and 564 July. Support is at 501, 498, and 494 July, with resistance at 515, 522, and 529 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 508 and 601 July. Support is at 463, 450, and 447 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 497 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 584 and 617 July. Support is at 555, 551, and 545 July, and resistance is at 568, 576, and 581 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed in consolidation trading. The weather remains key to market direction, and the weather could be about to take a turn for the worst. A big storm is in the Gulf and appears likely to threaten crops in Texas with flooding rains. The system should move north after that and could affect crops in Arkansas and Missouri. It has remained mostly wet in the Mid South, but Rice is getting planted. Active progress is hoped for again this week, but there will be some acres from southern Missouri into Arkansas and Mississippi that will not get planted at all. Growing areas near the Gulf Coast and in Texas are reporting better crop progress and mostly good conditions. Texas and some Louisiana crops have gone into flood. Futures have broken through some resistance areas on the weekly charts and the charts now show the chance for prices to move significantly higher over time. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1158, 1138, and 1136 July, with resistance at 1175, 1183, and 1190 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 5
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.04 8.09 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.55 8.66 0.00
Brokens 7.87 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher after trading both sides of unchanged. The trade yesterday was disappointing considering the planting progress shown by USDA on Monday, but there are ideas that the progress can improve a little this week. However, the areas farthest behind are in the southern and eastern Midwest and this is where most of the rain is forecast to fall for the next week or more. The reports were considered bullish as the planting progress was below expectations and remains the slowest on record. Some dry days are coming now, but rain appears for much of the Midwest by the middle of the week and should last through the end of the week in areas mostly south of Interstate 80. There is still a lot of Corn to be planted and in some areas a lot of preparatory field work before planting can be done. There could still be more than 30 million acres left to plant as prevent plant insurance dates have already passed or are coming today. Some of the area will not get planted this year, the only question is how much. Some analysts and producers also expect lower yields due to the late planting dates and extremely difficult conditions for planting this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 418, 412, and 408 July, and resistance is at 431, 436, and 438 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 291, 270, and 262 July. Support is at 301, 298, and 292 July, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 313 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little higher again yesterday. Ideas of bad Midwest weather and less production supported the buying and a stronger Brazilian Real has kept some origin selling out of the market. USDA showed very slow progress in planting the crop after the close on Monday, so higher prices are likely this week. Showers and storms are in the forecast for the Midwest starting about the middle of this week. US weather remains poor for planting Soybeans as well as Corn and planting of both crops is well behind normal. Crop conditions for emergence and initial growth are also bad as it is too wet and too cold for best growth in much of the Midwest. Soybeans have been slower to react than Corn as most producers try to plant Corn first and because of the trade wars with China combined with increased potential for South America to take over the market at this time. The market is worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 893 July. Support is at 873, 864, and 858 July, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 894 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 319.00, 316.00, and 310.00 July, and resistance is at 326.00, 328.00, and 331.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2720, 2700, and 2670 July, with resistance at 2770, 2800, and 2820 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower yesterday as the Canadian Dollar moved higher. Support came from more reports of dry weather in Canada. The dry weather has allowed for rapid planting but poor initial growth. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was closed for Eid. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China cn increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 448.00 and 441.00 July. Support is at 451.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 456.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2020, 1990, and 1960 August, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in southern and eastern areas by the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +55 July +161 July +80 July +48 July +1 July
July +41 July +80 July +41 July
August +32 September +70 September +37 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June 40 July
July -14 July 28 July
August -13 August 22 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 4
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 4 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 445.30 dn 4.20
Track Thunder Bay 466.10 dn 2.20
Track Vancouver 473.10 up 4.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 207,050 lots, or 7.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,601 3,601 3,537 3,537 3,575 3,573 -2 68 904
Sep-19 3,606 3,625 3,553 3,563 3,629 3,587 -42 189,030 115,706
Nov-19 3,542 3,542 3,488 3,488 3,547 3,514 -33 6 124
Jan-20 3,590 3,597 3,536 3,545 3,593 3,569 -24 15,010 41,640
Mar-20 3,551 3,551 3,512 3,548 3,618 3,540 -78 30 36
May-20 3,622 3,631 3,583 3,592 3,636 3,611 -25 2,906 18,912
Corn
Turnover: 968,272 lots, or 19.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,933 1,933 1,918 1,925 1,929 1,925 -4 17,246 56,688
Sep-19 1,973 1,975 1,958 1,964 1,973 1,964 -9 635,282 979,292
Nov-19 2,004 2,008 1,993 2,000 2,004 1,997 -7 94,326 203,120
Jan-20 2,042 2,043 2,025 2,030 2,041 2,031 -10 208,124 505,730
Mar-20 2,048 2,057 2,039 2,047 2,059 2,047 -12 1,758 9,622
May-20 2,091 2,114 2,091 2,098 2,114 2,101 -13 11,536 50,614
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,730,898 lots, or 11.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,940 2,955 2,896 2,905 2,952 2,925 -27 20,518 29,326
Aug-19 2,987 2,997 2,943 2,951 2,992 2,979 -13 80,528 104,300
Sep-19 2,979 3,002 2,947 2,954 2,990 2,976 -14 3,232,170 2,201,882
Nov-19 3,012 3,025 2,980 2,983 3,034 3,002 -32 600 7,888
Dec-19 3,012 3,026 2,963 2,963 3,008 2,987 -21 914 904
Jan-20 3,014 3,026 2,971 2,978 3,014 2,998 -16 335,940 407,496
Mar-20 2,899 2,914 2,880 2,883 2,919 2,890 -29 152 1,244
May-20 2,781 2,793 2,746 2,753 2,791 2,765 -26 60,076 181,984
Palm Oil
Turnover: 472,054 lots, or 20.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-19 – – – 4,076 4,076 4,076 0 0 0
Jul-19 – – – 4,414 4,414 4,414 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 4,466 4,466 4,466 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,418 4,438 4,396 4,420 4,398 4,416 18 438,634 612,854
Oct-19 4,512 4,514 4,478 4,478 4,470 4,504 34 8 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,704 4,670 4,704 34 0 32
Dec-19 – – – 4,670 4,670 4,670 0 0 20
Jan-20 4,570 4,590 4,564 4,578 4,558 4,574 16 32,458 124,434
Feb-20 – – – 4,634 4,618 4,634 16 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,770 4,770 4,770 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
May-20 4,740 4,750 4,724 4,740 4,726 4,738 12 954 9,978
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 440,810 lots, or 24.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,436 5,436 5,436 0 0 2
Aug-19 – – – 5,394 5,394 5,394 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,460 5,478 5,442 5,454 5,426 5,454 28 375,308 837,742
Nov-19 – – – 5,516 5,516 5,516 0 0 2
Dec-19 5,580 5,620 5,580 5,620 5,608 5,600 -8 16 12
Jan-20 5,616 5,626 5,592 5,600 5,584 5,602 18 62,112 157,528
Mar-20 5,678 5,678 5,640 5,670 5,618 5,658 40 42 12
May-20 5,692 5,718 5,670 5,690 5,678 5,684 6 3,332 7,964
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322