About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – May 31
For the week ended May 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 153.0 411.8 25868.1 23743.3 2401.4 3733.5
hrw 79.2 201.3 9397.8 9306.4 1167.9 1473.9
srw 0.4 31.7 3362.1 2539.1 233.0 664.3
hrs 45.4 118.7 7152.4 6172.2 539.9 812.9
white 28.0 60.2 5451.9 5320.3 432.6 618.6
durum 0.0 0.0 503.9 405.4 27.9 163.7
corn 906.8 76.5 48247.1 54461.7 8646.5 2590.4
soybeans 455.8 22.0 46228.7 55465.3 11825.0 1445.9
soy meal 183.8 65.0 10895.1 10907.9 2789.4 560.1
soy oil 35.1 0.0 741.1 875.0 165.2 4.2
upland cotton 288.8 136.2 14910.9 16255.9 4930.9 3637.7
Pima cotton 1.5 0.0 708.9 613.2 188.4 50.6
sorghum -50.7 0.0 1559.7 5093.3 525.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 61.3 32.5 19.3 31.6
rice 61.0 4.0 3011.9 2689.3 570.9 28.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher yesterday on forecasts for wet weather to appear again next week in the Great Plains and the Midwest. Forecasts had called for drier weather, but those changed yesterday. Traders talked about disease potential in Winter Wheat crops, and the talk was started again yesterday. There are still drought fears, especially in Canada, Australia, and parts of Russia and Kazakhstan. Current weather forecasts call for warmer temperatures this week and more wet weather. The wet weather is also causing concerns about Winter Wheat quality as too much rain could hurt protein levels. This is a bigger problem for Hard Red Winter Wheat. It has been very dry in central Russia and into Kazakhstan, and there is talk that the crops will be hurt. This is a developing situation that could become serious if no rain falls in the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 527, 537, and 564 July. Support is at 494, 491, and 481 July, with resistance at 517, 522, and 528 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 508 and 601 July. Support is at 463, 450, and 447 July, with resistance at 480, 481, and 501 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 584 and 617 July. Support is at 555, 551, and 545 July, and resistance is at 566, 568, and 576 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower but recovered well from the lowest levels of the day. Futures have broken through some resistance areas on the weekly charts and the charts now show the chance for prices to move significantly higher over time. However, the market has already rallied a lot without any kind of significant correction, so a short-term move lower is possible now. Growing areas near the Gulf Coast and in Texas are mostly planted, and crop development has been reported to be uneven in Louisiana. Texas crops seem to be in good condition. Planting progress remains slow in Arkansas due to wet and cold weather. There are some areas that might not get planted this year as producers are starting to run out of time to get the crops in and up and then to expect good yields.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a mostly dry week. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1140, 1136, and 1121 July, with resistance at 1175, 1185, and 1190 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed sharply higher as forecasts for wet weather next week returned. Forecasts had called for drier weather next week, but those forecasts changed during the day yesterday. Support came from the record slow planting pace that will not improve this week. It remains a very impressive rally that was caused by the current wet weather. It has been too wet for many producers to consider planting. Many have not even been able to do initial fieldwork to prepare the soils for planting, and prevent planting is a real option now for many producers. The planting pace is reported to be the slowest in history and traders are now starting to figure out supply and demand scenarios based on reduced planted area and yields. The slow planting progress means that lower yields are a certainty and there are increasing ideas that not all of the intended area will get planted. A big rally is possible as long as the weather remains unfavorable. There is a good crop coming in Brazil and Argentina, so the US will have competition for sales. The chart show that higher prices are possible, with moves to about $4.75 basis the nearest futures a possibility.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.057 million barrels per day this week, from 1.071 million last week and 1.038 million last year. Ethanol production slipped to 1.057 million barrels per day this week, from 1.071 million last week and 1.038 million last year. Ethanol processors used 107.7 million bushels of Corn this week, from 109.1 million last week and 106.8 million last year. Estimated Corn use to date for Ethanol production is 3.987 billion bushel.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 474 July. Support is at 421, 412, and 408 July, and resistance is at 436, 438, and 445 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 326 July. Support is at 310, 307, and 304 July, and resistance is at 323, 325, and 329 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher and chart trends are up for all three markets. The rally got stronger yesterday when forecasts for wet weather replaced some drier weather outlooks for next week. US weather remains poor for planting Soybeans as well as Corn and planting of both crops is well behind normal. Crop conditions for emergence and initial growth are also bad as it is too wet for best growth in much of the Midwest. The current forecasts imply that the bad weather will continue. Soybeans have been slower to react than Corn as most producers try to plant Corn first and because of the trade wars with China combined with increased potential for South America to take over the market at this time. The market is worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. There is still no trade deal coming with China, and the rhetoric seems to be getting harder on both sides.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 893 July. Support is at 864, 858, and 848 July, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 897 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 319.00, and 316.00 July, and resistance is at 331.00, 333.00, and 335.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2830 and 2950 July. Support is at 2750, 2720, and 2670 July, with resistance at 2600, 2820, and 2830 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher as the weather market continues there. Support came from more reports of dry weather in Canada. Strong futures in Chicago and Malaysia also supported Canola. The dry weather has allowed for rapid planting but poor initial growth. There are also forecasts for frost in western growing areas over the weekend. Prices have consolidated the losses in the last few days since the StatsCan stocks reports that were no worse for prices than expected. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was lower on outside markets but can work higher next week. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil as well. Demand ideas are improving, but ideas are that production remains high. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News: SGS said that May Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.688 million tons, from 1.584 million tons last month. AmSpec said that exports were 1.688 million tons, from 1.576 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 July. Support is at 451.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 462.00, 464.00, and 467.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2150 and 2240 August. Support is at 2070, 2050, and 2020 August, with resistance at 2120, 2150, and 2170 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation today in the east and in all areas by the end of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +55 July +154 July +105 July +50 July +1 July
June +45 July +85 July +35 July
July +40 July +75 July +33 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
May
June 100 July 40 July
July 105 July -15 July 31 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 448.20 up 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.10 up 0.90
Basis: Vancouver 479.10 up 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 515.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July 515.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 520.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 532.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 475.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 407.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,030 -10.00 Unuoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 140 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 227,684 lots, or 8.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,576 3,596 3,545 3,596 3,611 3,561 -50 14 918
Sep-19 3,658 3,658 3,568 3,598 3,666 3,611 -55 200,012 111,298
Nov-19 3,552 3,552 3,488 3,512 3,550 3,523 -27 10 124
Jan-20 3,592 3,615 3,547 3,576 3,606 3,582 -24 21,942 45,620
Mar-20 – – – 3,592 3,607 3,592 -15 0 32
May-20 3,650 3,655 3,606 3,628 3,647 3,626 -21 5,706 16,256
Corn
Turnover: 1,593,612 lots, or 31.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,954 1,962 1,926 1,932 1,965 1,939 -26 173,848 92,430
Sep-19 1,990 1,992 1,968 1,971 1,993 1,978 -15 1,096,324 1,045,852
Nov-19 2,024 2,024 1,999 2,003 2,024 2,018 -6 3,114 6,392
Jan-20 2,050 2,055 2,026 2,036 2,059 2,040 -19 290,788 462,730
Mar-20 2,089 2,089 2,045 2,053 2,084 2,063 -21 1,440 10,030
May-20 2,115 2,120 2,094 2,106 2,127 2,106 -21 28,098 43,056
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,844,566 lots, or 11.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,881 2,909 2,866 2,885 2,901 2,883 -18 62,054 73,472
Aug-19 2,907 2,941 2,904 2,929 2,922 2,921 -1 6,348 8,592
Sep-19 2,928 2,940 2,898 2,923 2,925 2,921 -4 2,938,010 2,164,710
Nov-19 2,942 2,960 2,931 2,956 2,951 2,948 -3 7,028 7,822
Dec-19 2,990 2,990 2,922 2,955 2,946 2,961 15 912 904
Jan-20 2,941 2,989 2,931 2,960 2,941 2,960 19 700,376 360,754
Mar-20 2,869 2,905 2,857 2,877 2,872 2,879 7 214 1,176
May-20 2,761 2,796 2,744 2,768 2,754 2,766 12 129,624 158,888
Palm Oil
Turnover: 379,648 lots, or 17.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-19 4,076 4,076 4,076 4,076 4,242 4,076 -166 2 0
Jul-19 4,530 4,530 4,402 4,402 4,394 4,466 72 8 16
Aug-19 – – – 4,496 4,496 4,496 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,466 4,492 4,464 4,470 4,482 4,476 -6 339,636 607,230
Oct-19 4,550 4,550 4,550 4,550 4,550 4,550 0 2 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,678 4,678 4,678 0 0 32
Dec-19 – – – 4,656 4,656 4,656 0 0 20
Jan-20 4,610 4,630 4,610 4,622 4,620 4,618 -2 39,622 122,898
Feb-20 – – – 4,662 4,662 4,662 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,814 4,814 4,814 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,736 4,736 4,736 0 0 2
May-20 4,782 4,792 4,780 4,784 4,788 4,784 -4 378 9,942
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 356,290 lots, or 19.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 5,516 5,516 5,412 5,420 5,506 5,464 -42 8 2
Aug-19 – – – 5,460 5,510 5,460 -50 0 32
Sep-19 5,490 5,520 5,480 5,482 5,504 5,498 -6 315,132 788,528
Nov-19 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,750 5,750 5,750 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,636 5,670 5,634 5,640 5,658 5,652 -6 40,636 137,442
Mar-20 – – – 5,692 5,692 5,692 0 0 12
May-20 5,738 5,762 5,730 5,740 5,752 5,742 -10 514 5,782
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322