William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Indeed, what a difference a week makes! Last Mon, July beans were on their back- in the throes of exhaustion selling off the failed trade talks! Then delayed planting finally got the mkt’s attention – igniting a 60 cent rally (790-850)! Still, the beans mostly coat-tailed the corn rally as rain means corn-to-beans & no rain means beans get planted – a catch-22!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 513,000 (450-700) & Thur sales were 673,000 (300-900)
- PLANTING PROGRESS – 9% in (lw-6 2018-32 avg-29) Ill -3 (34) Ind – 2 (26) Iowa – 13 (31)
- TRADE TALKS – have moved to the backburner as the two sides can’t seem to compromise on a situation that is hurting both parties – because – no one wins a trade war – the next probable face-to-face meeting could take place at the G-20 Summit in Japan in late June
- PLANTING DELAYS – finally “grabbed” the mkt as we move past mid-May –eith the planting window rapidly closing – of course the biggest beneficiary would be corn – as some its acres will go to beans or to “PREVENT”
- RECORD SHORT OPEN INTEREST – will be quick to exit as the mkt builds in a weather premium
- STILL RECORD STOCKS – hang over the mkt -curbing any potential rallies
On one hand, bean fundamentals are bearish with record stocks, skimpy exports & no trade deal in sight – on the other hand, there’s a reason beans have descended to 10 year lows – bearish fundamentals! So has the mkt fully dialed them in? We suspect – pretty much – but also opine that the mkt needs a trade deal and/or weather issues to mount a hard rally!!
Wow! July corn went vertical in just 6 trading days – soaring 50 cents (342-392) and leaving two upside gaps along the way! A minuscule 30% planting rate – reported last Monday by the USDA – is easily the worst on record – for this late in the year! Many will not plant corn after 5/31/19 – and the implications of lost production are reasonably easy to calculate – a loss of 2-3 million acres with below trend-line yield will take a big bite out of final production!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 1,0 (850-1.1) & Thur sales 573,000 (200-800)
- PLANTING PROGRESS – 30% in (lw-23 2018-59 avg-66) Ill – 11 (82) Ind – 6 (57) Iowa – 48 (76)
- WEATHER DELAYS – June 1 is a cut-off date for many when they will either go to PREVENT or go to beans! Already there is a “yield drag” on corn planted after mid-May
- RECORD SHORT OPEN INTEREST – they have to be nervous as the mkt begins to build a weather premium
- WHAT TRADE DEAL – after being the focal point of the mkt for so long, it has been put on the back burner – the mkt has grown very weary of “happy talk” but no concrete results
There’s a “3” in front of the corn price – not a “4” or a “5” – and this should not be lost on corn producers & traders!
July Wht has joined the parade rallying 60 cents (420-480) in the past week – feeding off Spring Wht Pltg delays- 45% in (67), concerns about the WW and the general cheapness of the price! The US Wht had gotten to the point where it became competitive on the world mkt!
After a $15 break off the highs (125-110), the June Cat contract is waiting for some much-needed demand to engage– in the form of SPRING BARBEQUE SEASON! However, the cold, wet spring has been far from conducive to that annual event – and as a result, the mkt has merely stagnated in the past 4-5 trading sessions!
Hogs have stronger upside fundamentals than cattle – also feeding off potential spring demand – as well as ASF & trade deal export “D”! However, SPRING & the TRADE DEAL have gone AWOL – leaving the June Hog Contract in a “scramble mode” – much like its sister contract, June Cat!!
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