About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
• 15-May-2019 05:13:19 PM – US AGRICULTURE SECRETARY PERDUE SAYS NEW TRADE AID PROGRAM WILL LIKELY INVOLVE DIRECT PAYMENTS
• 15-May-2019 05:15:23 PM – PERDUE DECLINES TO GIVE EXACT TIME FRAME ON FARM AID BUT SAYS WORK ON IT HAS BEEN ‘EXPEDITED’
• 15-May-2019 05:17:56 PM – PERDUE SAYS STILL WORKING OUT SOURCE OF THE AID FUNDING, LIKELY FROM COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION LIKE LAST YEAR
• 15-May-2019 05:20:47 PM – PERDUE SAYS USDA LOOKING AT $15-$20 BILLION IN TRADE AID FOR THE NEW PACKAGE

USDA Secretary says considering $15 bln-$20 bln in trade aid – Reuters
15-May-2019 05:34:21 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) – U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Wednesday his department is looking at $15 billion to $20 billion in aid for farmers hurt by the Trump administration’s trade war with China, a top buyer of U.S. crops.
Perdue said he was still working out the source of the funding, but it would likely involve the commodity credit corporation, similar to a $12 billion package last year. Farmers would likely receive direct payments, he said.

Alerts History
• 15-May-2019 11:00:09 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYBEAN CRUSH 159.990 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-May-2019 11:00:09 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYOIL STOCKS 1.787 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 15-May-2019 11:00:09 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS 763,203 TONS – NOPA

NOPA April soy crush slips to 159.990 million bushels, below trade expectations – Reuters News
15-May-2019 11:00:17 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
• NOTE: For a table detailing NOPA data by region, see Eikon page 0#SEED-US-STAT
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, May 15 (Reuters) – The monthly U.S. soybean crush fell below the prior-year level for a second straight month in April and was below most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Wednesday.
NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 159.990 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from 170.011 million bushels in March and below the 161.016 million bushels crushed in April 2018, the record for the month.
April’s crush was expected to rise to 161.607 million bushels, based on estimates gathered by Reuters from 10 analysts. Crush forecasts ranged from 157.893 million to 164.0 million bushels, with a median of 161.7 million. (Full Story)
Soybean oil stocks at the end of April swelled to 1.787 billion pounds, up from 1.761 billion pounds at the end of March but below the 2.092 billion pounds at the end of April 2018, according to NOPA.
The soyoil stocks were slightly above the average trade estimate of 1.779 billion pounds, but within the range of trade estimates gathered from seven analysts from 1.621 billion to 1.877 billion pounds.
Soymeal exports last month declined to 763,203 tons, from 844,294 tons in March and 946,291 tons exported in April 2018, NOPA said.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – May 16
For the week ended May 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 114.5 419.4 25666.8 23601.6 3517.5 2976.9
hrw 53.1 179.3 9342.2 9269.2 1642.0 1079.1
srw -45.2 73.7 3336.0 2519.5 475.5 560.5
hrs 89.9 85.9 7070.9 6128.5 737.5 637.0
white 23.5 73.8 5417.2 5280.0 610.0 536.5
durum -6.7 6.7 500.3 404.4 52.4 163.7
corn 553.3 80.8 46898.2 52614.4 9897.3 2330.0
soybeans 370.9 303.4 45237.1 55331.3 11873.2 1418.8
soy meal 196.1 69.3 10523.2 10527.7 2868.6 383.1
soy oil 10.8 0.0 696.9 854.4 165.2 4.2
upland cotton 226.9 176.4 14240.8 16188.6 5019.9 3260.0
Pima cotton 8.2 0.0 709.4 590.8 234.0 46.1
sorghum 48.8 0.0 1614.1 5359.3 625.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 61.2 33.0 21.0 31.6
rice 78.7 0.0 2939.9 2642.1 633.1 24.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed, with Chicago SRW higher and Chicago HRW and Minneapolis lower. It remains cold in the Midwest but has been drier in the northern Great Plains and planting progress for Spring Wheat was much improved. More rain and cooler temperatures are coming to Spring Wheat areas over the next week. Planting remains well behind normal and some areas might not be planted by insurance cut off dates. Some tweets from Russian sources talked about some extreme heat for growing areas near the Volga and yield losses are possible. Even so, USDA last week showed the potential for significantly increased world production and included some higher production estimates for Russia. The Great Plains have seen a lot of rain and snow since last Fall, and crops have had plenty to drink. The rains should help produce great yields for Winter Wheat but also lower protein levels. Big rains have also been seen in the Midwest. There is talk that all the rain could create disease pressure on the Winter crops in the Great Plains and Midwest even though high yields are possible. The demand is the past year has been disappointing as weaker prices have not improved sales. World prices have been stronger than those in the US due to less production in major world exporters such as Russia, Europe, and Australia, but should start to fade once the bigger production potential for the coming year is assured.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 465 and 496 July. Support is at 443, 439, and 434 July, with resistance at 454, 460, and 464 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 427, 459, and 601 July. Support is at 400, 392, and 391 July, with resistance at 406, 408, and 409 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 512, 507, and 505 July, and resistance is at 521, 523, and 524 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday and short-term trends turned down with the move. It looked like some speculator and maybe some producer selling hit the pit in response to forecasts for better weather for planting in the next few days. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures. Growing areas near the Gulf Coast and in Texas are reporting initial development as uneven. Some areas look very good while others have struggled to get good stands due to excessive rains. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. Planting in these areas should expand fairly rapidly over the next few days if the weather cooperates.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation this weekend after a dry week. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1051 and 1026 July. Support is at 1082, 1080, and 1076 July, with resistance at 1099, 1109, and 1117 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on weather concerns. The Midwest is seeing a few drier days now, but rains should return today and tomorrow and forecasts call for rains and storms into next week. Futures fell from the highs as the Chinese trade war also found news. President Trump is moving against Chinese telecom interests and is calling his measures part of the way to resolve a national emergency. The worst weather and planting problem is here in Illinois, but all of the Midwest is well behind normal planting and yield loss is now almost certain. There will now be increasing talk that some acres will not get planted at all or will be planted to other crops. The USDA monthly supply and demand reports showed no reason to worry about supplies this year or next year, but it now appears likely that USDA is overestimating the potential size of the US crop. US and world ending stocks levels were estimated high and above trade expectations. Brazil Winter Corn appears to be in good condition as the crop develops and moves to pollination. Crop estimates are high and have shown a tendency to increase as the crop develops. Most areas have seen enough rain for now. Corn prices are reported to be weakening in South America as the summer production from both Brazil and Argentina is now available. Meanwhile, the slow planting pace here and in Canada has supported Oats futures.
Overnight News: Corn used in last week’s ethanol production is estimated at 108.45 million bushels. The cumulative used for production so far in 2018/19 is 3.82 billion bushels, ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.45 billion bushels. Usage needs to average 101.245 million bushels per week to meet that estimate.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 363, 360, and 357 July, and resistance is at 372, 373, and 375 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 298, 302, and 303 July. Support is at 287, 280, and 278 July, and resistance is at 296, 298, and 301 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher, but closed well below the highs of the day as some speculative and perhaps producer selling appear near the highs of the day. Soybeans trends are sideways as the market has seen a big weather related recovery in prices after some extreme selling in the last few weeks. The weekly charts for Soybeans still show the potential for futures to move to about 770 bases the nearest futures contract. The tariff war with China escalated yesterday as President Trump moved to limit or eliminate imports of all telecommunications equipment from China. The president has called it a national emergency and has said China uses the equipment to spy on the US. The market is worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. The Chinese government reports that at least 20% of its hog herd has been lost and private estimates show much higher loss potential. Brazil yesterday said its Soybeans exports to China is down 19% due mostly to the lost hog herds. It is an indication that Soybeans and Meal demand could be significantly less in the coming year as China works to eradicate the disease and then repopulate its herds. USDA showed little planting progress for Soybeans in the last week as most producers could do no work, and those that did have some chances to plant worked on getting the Corn into the ground. There is potential for some areas not to get planted this year to either Corn or Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 827, 816, and 907 July, and resistance is at 841, 848, and 851 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 297.00, 293.00, and 288.00 July, and resistance is at 304.00, 305.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2830 and 2950 July. Support is at 2670, 2620, and 2600 July, with resistance at 2750, 2780, and 2800 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday after trading higher for much of the day. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Prices have consolidated the losses in the last few days since the StatsCan stocks reports that were no worse for prices than expected. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Planting conditions are reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher on the price action in Chicago and in petroleum markets. Demand ideas are improving. Short term trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 451.00, 456.00, and 465.00 July. Support is at 437.00, 434.00, and 431.00 July, with resistance at 447.00, 448.00, and 452.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1990 August, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2120 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation today and into next week as the rain pattern continues. Temperatures should be below normal today, but warmer the rest of this week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +44 July +150 July +81 July +36 July +1 July
June +41 July +70 July +28 July
July +41 July +70 July +30 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
May
June
July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 432.40 up 6.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 451.50 dn 0.90
Basis: Vancouver 461.50 dn 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 520.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 520.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 527.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 545.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 525.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 525.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 532.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 550.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 482.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 425.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,050 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 146 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1625)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 194,538 lots, or 6.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,451 3,460 3,451 3,460 3,432 3,454 22 264 570
Jul-19 3,502 3,523 3,477 3,510 3,478 3,510 32 270 442
Sep-19 3,530 3,581 3,530 3,543 3,531 3,551 20 184,542 123,966
Nov-19 3,491 3,520 3,466 3,483 3,476 3,490 14 98 98
Jan-20 3,496 3,543 3,481 3,515 3,488 3,516 28 9,342 40,214
Mar-20 3,536 3,541 3,532 3,536 3,503 3,537 34 22 44
Corn
Turnover: 1,473,578 lots, or 29.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,927 1,950 1,927 1,950 1,900 1,940 40 444 5,704
Jul-19 1,936 1,960 1,934 1,955 1,927 1,946 19 78,824 356,018
Sep-19 1,961 1,985 1,960 1,978 1,950 1,974 24 1,138,714 1,222,544
Nov-19 1,981 2,006 1,981 1,995 1,971 1,997 26 1,054 1,394
Jan-20 1,999 2,026 1,996 2,018 1,984 2,012 28 253,364 394,484
Mar-20 2,026 2,037 2,009 2,027 1,995 2,023 28 1,178 9,664
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,649,022 lots, or 99.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,682 2,717 2,682 2,709 2,641 2,714 73 202 1,556
Jul-19 2,680 2,716 2,663 2,702 2,643 2,694 51 96,352 247,950
Aug-19 2,689 2,733 2,689 2,717 2,669 2,718 49 3,996 2,514
Sep-19 2,705 2,747 2,700 2,726 2,680 2,726 46 3,345,414 2,299,498
Nov-19 2,720 2,764 2,718 2,746 2,692 2,752 60 16,050 3,222
Dec-19 2,751 2,775 2,750 2,758 2,720 2,762 42 178 192
Jan-20 2,738 2,779 2,735 2,760 2,718 2,760 42 186,098 250,918
Mar-20 2,667 2,715 2,667 2,700 2,658 2,696 38 732 2,330
Palm Oil
Turnover: 511,574 lots, or 22.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 4,140 4,222 4,140 4,170 4,116 4,162 46 84 15,650
Jun-19 4,236 4,382 4,138 4,250 4,232 4,238 6 16 6
Jul-19 4,370 4,370 4,338 4,338 4,206 4,362 156 8 22
Aug-19 4,460 4,460 4,460 4,460 4,380 4,460 80 2
Sep-19 4,436 4,480 4,434 4,478 4,426 4,460 34 467,796 551,996
Oct-19 – – – 4,546 4,502 4,546 44 0 22
Nov-19 – – – 4,582 4,548 4,582 34 0 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,726 4,690 4,726 36 0 14
Jan-20 4,630 4,652 4,622 4,650 4,618 4,642 24 43,648 118,080
Feb-20 4,648 4,648 4,648 4,648 4,604 4,648 44 2 4
Mar-20 4,632 4,788 4,632 4,788 4,652 4,728 76 18 14
Apr-20 – – – 4,600 4,600 4,600 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 516,342 lots, or 28.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 – – – 5,310 5,310 5,310 0 0 6,040
Jul-19 5,368 5,390 5,368 5,390 5,284 5,382 98 6 4
Aug-19 – – – 5,376 5,280 5,376 96 0 32
Sep-19 5,430 5,470 5,428 5,464 5,414 5,448 34 467,382 789,196
Nov-19 5,484 5,484 5,484 5,484 5,518 5,484 -34 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,732 5,732 5,732 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,596 5,626 5,588 5,620 5,570 5,604 34 48,948 107,470
Mar-20 5,692 5,720 5,692 5,720 5,714 5,706 -8 4 16
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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