Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 12-May 5-May 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 26 18 34 32
Corn Planted 30 23 59 66
Corn Emerged 10 6 25 29
Soybeans Planted 9 6 32 29
Sorghum Planted 24 22 32 33
Rice Planted 55 48 81 82
Rice Emerged 42 35 59 63
Peanuts Planted 40 22 42 36
Sugar beets Planted 63 31 61 80
Oats Planted 62 50 70 82
Oats Emerged 43 36 46 64
Winter Wheat Headed 42 29 43 54
Spring Wheat Planted 45 22 54 67
Spring Wheat Emerged 10 4 13 34
Barley Planted 69 37 69 72
Barley Emerged 25 12 20 42
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 2 6 28 49 15
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 6 28 52 12
Winter Wheat Last Year 14 22 28 29 7
Pastures and Ranges This Week 1 6 30 52 11
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 1 7 32 49 11
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 5 15 37 37 6
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower to limit down as the lack of progress in the trade negotiations with China created a double slam for this market. China has retaliated with tariffs on US goods in response to moves by the US to increase tariffs on Chinese goods. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. The lack of a deal with China means less potential to sell US Cotton there. China has bought in limited amounts from the US this year as it seeks to cover a short crop of its own. However, it has bought more from India and now can look to Brazil for supplies. The stock markets worked sharply lower as there were some new fears about the world economic health. There is still expectations that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies. USDA showed that planting progress was starting to slip behind the average pace in its weekly crop updates last night, and USDA could report slower planting progress in the reports next week due to bad weather in much of the Delta and Southeast last week. Some rains have also appeared in western Texas. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn or Rice due to relative pricing.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get dry weather until more rain appears this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 59.91 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 87,530 bales, from 87,391 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 422 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 6520, 6460, and 6400 July, with resistance of 6800, 6860, and 6720 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday and the charts suggest that a low is trying to form. USDA cut its production estimate last week, but production is still estimated above 70 million boxes. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago as Florida Citrus Mutual showed a 24% increase in state inventories in its weekly report. The increase is coming from less demand and good imports along with the increased domestic production. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to develop. Producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia and harvest progress should be strong. Fruit for the next crop is developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Production is very uniform so far this year and development throughout the state is about equal. Some fruit drop is being reported, but this is normal as the trees move to the next crop and drop the old fruit. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 92.00, 91.00, and 89.00 July, with resistance at 98.00, 101.00, and 104.00 July.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday in both markets on fears about global trade and the health of the world economy that are being fed by the trade war between the US and China. New York is still in its recent trading range, and London is starting to hold as well. Futures are acting oversold, so further buying rally is possible at this time. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way. Prices are generally below to well below the cost of production for world producers, and prices are getting to that point for producers in Brazil and Vietnam. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the next crop might still be big as the weather has been good for the trees so far. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week. Cecafe said last week that the country exported 2.976 million bags in April. Vietnam is active in its harvest and the export pace has been good so far this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.435 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,718 contracts. The ICO daily average price is now 90.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 88.00 and 81.00 July. Support is at 88.00, 86.00, and 83.00 July, and resistance is at 91.00, 92.00 and 95.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1270 July, and resistance is at 1370, 1360, and 1380 July.
General Comments: Futures were higher after holding the lows of last week. The move came despite some selling related to the extreme weakness in the stock market and worries over the world economic health. Ideas of big supplies were also secondary as the market seems to have factored that fundamental into the price for now. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is good in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. However, UNICA reported a slow start to the harvest season in the center-south area due to a lot of rain and Conab estimated higher production, but not so much higher that the trade was worried. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by news that Indian mills are selling and have sold about 3.0 million tons of White Sugar into the world market. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but production this year could be less due to reduced area and low prices. Demand for Sugar has been good, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1150 July. Support is at 1170, 1150, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 321.00 and 308.00 August. Support is at 321.00, 318.00, and 315.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 334.00, and 336.00 August.
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday, with both markets testing support and showing the chance to move lower. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Arrivals were reported strong in the rest of West Africa as well. Demand appears strong. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa as there are showers and somewhat cooler temperatures. Continued rains at this time could create another big and high quality crop when harvest begins late in the year. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but Brazil has been a little dry as has Malaysia
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 4.516 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 458 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2280, 2230, and 2190 July, with resistance at 2350, 2380, and 2400 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1700, 1680, and 1640 July. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1640 July, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1760 July.