About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Friday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 15,030 14,765 14,220-15,010
Soybean 4,150 4,187 4,143-4,300
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2018-19 Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,095 2,061 1,935-2,216 2,035
Soybeans 995 925 880-1,038 895
Wheat 1,127 1,100 1,086-1,187 1,087
2019-20 Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,485 2,142 1,694-2,506 na
Soybeans 970 943 786-1,524 na
Wheat 1,141 1,073 980-1,173 na
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19 Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 325.9 315.5 313.4-318.0 314.0
Soybeans 113.2 109.0 107.0-115.7 107.4
Wheat 275.0 276.1 274.1-277.5 275.6
2019-20 Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 314.7 304.0 271.2-329.0 na
Soybeans 113.1 113.0 100.0-143.1 na
Wheat 293.0 272.8 230.0-285.0 na
***
2019-20 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Friday’s Average Range
Estimate
Winter Wheat 1,268 1,287 1,194-1,400
Hard Red Winter 780 779 662-905
Soft Red Winter 265 277 250-302
White Winter 224 236 201-270
***
2018-19 Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 100.0 96.6 95.0-98.5 96.0
Soybeans 117.0 116.9 116.0-118.0 117.0
2018-19 Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 49.0 48.2 46.5-50.0 47.0
Soybeans 56.0 55.8 55.0-57.0 55.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – May 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD========================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18

Soybeans 970.0 995.0 438.0:151.15 150.30 152.96:355.66 362.08 341.54
Brazil na na: 75.00 78.50 76.18:123.00 117.00 122.00
Argentina na na: 7.00 6.30 2.11: 53.00 56.00 37.80
China na na: 0.13 0.13 0.13: 17.00 15.90 15.20
Soyoil 1,450 1,865 1,995: 11.77 11.21 10.51: 57.69 56.54 55.17
Corn 2,485 2,095 2,140:171.61 170.32 148.70: 1,134 1,119 1,078
China na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02:254.00 257.33 259.07
Argentina na na: 32.50 31.50 22.50: 49.00 49.00 32.00
S.Africa na na: 1.50 1.00 2.10: 14.00 11.00 13.10
Cotton(a) 6.40 4.65 4.30: 45.35 42.03 40.93:125.45 118.43 123.78
All Wheat 1,141 1,127 1,099:184.60 177.91 181.77:777.49 731.55 762.24
China na na: 1.30 1.20 1.00:132.00 131.43 134.33
EU 27 na na: 27.00 24.00 23.29:153.80 137.22 151.14
Canada na na: 24.00 24.00 21.95: 34.50 31.80 29.98
Argentina na na: 14.00 13.70 12.66: 20.00 19.50 18.50
Australia na na: 13.50 10.00 13.85: 22.50 17.30 21.30
Russia na na: 36.00 37.00 41.42: 77.00 71.69 85.17
Ukraine na na: 19.00 16.50 17.78: 29.00 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 45.0 60.0 35.0: na na na
Barley 90.0 89.0 94.0: na na na
Oats 33.0 33.0 41.0: na na: na na na
Rice 58.8 53.6 29.4: 47.60 46.73 47.10:498.42 499.89 495.03

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower as the lack of progress in the trade negotiations with China created a double slam for this market. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. The lack of a deal with China means less potential to sell US Cotton there. China has bought in limited amounts from the US this year as it seeks to cover a short crop of its own. However, it has bought more from India and now can look to Brazil for supplies. The stock markets worked lower as there were some new fears about the world economic health, and that meant Cotton futures moved even lower last week. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand for US Cotton. There is still expectations that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies. USDA showed that planting progress was good in its weekly crop updates last week, but USDA could report slower planting progress in the reports this week due to bad weather in much of the Delta and Southeast last week. Some rains have also appeared in western Texas. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn or Rice due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities are being opened. Cotton production is poised to make a comeback in the Delta and Southeast, and the wet weather implies less Corn planted and more Cotton or Soybeans planted.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get scattered showers and storms through the week, than dry weather starting Sunday. Temperatures should be mostly above normal today and tomorrow, then below normal. Texas will have showers today and Monday, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal today and tomorrow, then below normal. The USDA average price is now 62.91 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 87,233 bales, from 87,251 bales yesterday. ICE said that 16 notices were posted against contracts for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 422 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 6820, 6760, and 6700 July, with resistance of 7200, 7240, and 7300 July.

DJ USDA Crop Production: Final U.S. All Cotton – May 10
Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2017-18
====================================================================
Area
Type Planted Harvested Yield
And ============================================================
State 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
====================================================================
========== 1,000 Acres ======= ===== Pounds ====
Upland
U.S. 12,465.0 13,850.0 10,850.0 9,957.0 895 847
Amer Pima
U.S. 252.5 250.3 250.4 248.8 1,341 1,545
All
U.S. 12,717.5 14,100.3 11,100.4 10,205.8 905 864
=====================================================================

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2017/18 2018/19 Est. 2019/20 Proj. 2019/20 Proj.
Item Apr May
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 12.72 14.10 NA 13.78*
Harvested 11.10 10.21 NA 12.54*
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 905 864 NA 842*
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 2.75 4.30 NA 4.65
Production 20.92 18.37 NA 22.00
Imports 0.00 0.01 NA 0.01
Supply, Total 23.68 22.67 NA 26.66
Domestic Use 3.23 3.10 NA 3.10
Exports, Total 15.85 14.75 NA 17.00
Use, Total 19.07 17.85 NA 20.10
Unaccounted 2/ 0.30 0.17 NA 0.16
Ending Stocks 4.30 4.65 NA 6.40
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 68.6 70.0 NA 65.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 588 – 18 May 2019

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
================================================================================
2017/18
World 80.42 123.78 41.05 122.77 40.93 0.47 81.08
World Less China 34.50 96.28 35.32 81.77 40.80 0.47 43.06
United States 2.75 20.92 3/ 3.23 15.85 0.30 4.30
Total Foreign 77.67 102.86 41.05 119.54 25.08 0.17 76.78
Major Exporters 4/ 22.03 57.10 2.46 32.75 21.72 0.02 27.11
Major Importers 8/ 54.17 42.93 35.96 82.76 2.34 0.15 47.81
2018/19 Est.
World 81.08 118.43 42.03 122.71 42.03 0.33 76.47
World Less China 43.06 90.68 33.53 82.21 41.88 0.33 42.85
United States 4.30 18.37 0.01 3.10 14.75 0.17 4.65
Total Foreign 76.78 100.07 42.02 119.61 27.28 0.16 71.82
Major Exporters 4/ 27.11 54.51 2.06 33.89 23.36 0.02 26.42
Major Importers 8/ 47.81 42.70 37.37 81.53 2.78 0.14 43.43
================================================================================
WASDE – 588 – 27 May 2019
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================\
2019/20 Proj.
World
Apr NA NA NA NA
May 76.47 125.45 45.35 125.93 45.35 0.31 75.69
World Less China
Apr NA NA NA NA
May 42.85 97.70 34.35 84.43 45.22 0.31 44.94
United States
Apr NA NA NA NA
May 4.65 22.00 0.01 3.10 17.00 0.16 6.40
Total Foreign
Apr NA NA NA NA
May 71.82 103.45 45.35 122.83 28.35 0.16 69.29
Major Exporters 4/
Apr NA NA NA NA
May 26.42 56.97 2.14 34.81 24.18 0.02 26.51
Major Importers 8/
Apr NA NA NA NA
May 43.43 43.52 40.60 83.79 2.90 0.14 40.72
================================================================================
WASDE – 588 – 28 May 2019

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 267,163
: Positions :
: 51,030 43,669 60,491 58,699 134,137 84,162 14,984 254,382 253,281: 12,781 13,882
: Changes from: April 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 11,151) :
: -4,186 8,667 10,017 8,553 -11,250 -1,940 2,361 12,444 9,794: -1,293 1,357
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.1 16.3 22.6 22.0 50.2 31.5 5.6 95.2 94.8: 4.8 5.2
: Total Traders: 301 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 78 97 50 55 47 24 253 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and bounced after holding the recent contract lows on the charts. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts as the market looks at a big oranges crop and little demand for FCOJ. USDA cut its production estimate last week, but production is still estimated above 70 million boxes. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago as Florida Citrus Mutual showed a 24% increase in state inventories in its weekly report. The increase is coming from less demand and good imports along with the increased domestic production. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to develop. Producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia and harvest progress should be strong. Fruit for the next crop is developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Production is very uniform so far this year and development throughout the state is about equal. Some fruit drop is being reported, but this is normal as the trees move to the next crop and drop the old fruit. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 92.00, 91.00, and 89.00 July, with resistance at 98.00, 101.00, and 104.00 July.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits – May 10
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and
United States, Forecasted May 1, 2019
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
=========================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized production
Boxes 1/ Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ======================================================
2017-2018 2018-2019 2017-2018 2018-2019
=========================================================================
=== 1,000 Boxes === ==== 1,000 Tons ====
=========================================================================
Oranges
California, all 2/ 45,400 49,000 1,816 1,960
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 35,900 40,000 1,436 1,600
Valencia 9,500 9,000 380 360
Florida, all 45,050 72,400 2,028 3,258
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 18,950 30,400 853 1,368
Valencia 26,100 42,000 1,175 1,890
Texas, all 2/ 1,880 1,875 80 79
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 1,530 1,300 65 55
Valencia 350 575 15 24
United States, all 92,330 123,275 3,924 5,297
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 56,380 71,700 2,354 3,023
Valencia 35,950 51,575 1,570 2,274
Grapefruit
California 2/ 4,000 4,000 160 160
Florida, all 3,880 4,580 165 195
Red 3,180 3,800 135 162
White 700 780 30 33
Texas 2/ 4,800 6,300 192 252
United States 12,680 14,880 517 607
Tangerines and mandarins 4/
California 2/ 19,200 22,000 768 880
Florida 750 1,000 36 48
United States 19,950 23,000 804 928
Lemons 2/
Arizona 1,000 1,300 40 52
California 21,200 20,000 848 800
United States 22,200 21,300 888 852
========================================================================
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and
mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 7, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 26,030 :
: Positions :
: 14,322 9,756 1,797 0 45 773 9,061 317 1,482 1,180 3,164 :
: Changes from: April 30, 2019 :
: 689 293 -6 0 20 -18 448 42 105 119 373 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 55.0 37.5 6.9 0.0 0.2 3.0 34.8 1.2 5.7 4.5 12.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96 :
: 24 10 7 0 . 7 26 . 22 6 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – May 8
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
4/27/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
4/27/2019 4/28/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 296.73 225.53 31.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.11 7.31 -16.4%
Total 302.84 232.84 30.1%
Pack
Bulk 5.39 3.19 69.1%
Retail/Institutional 1.34 1.01 32.6%
Total Pack 6.74 4.20 60.3%
Reprocessed -3.38 -2.55 32.6%
Pack from Fruit 3.36 1.65 102.9%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.04 -0.16 -77.9%
Imports – Foreign 7.15 16.02 -55.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.38 3.13 -88.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.01 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 306.30 245.16 24.9%
Retail/Institutional 7.46 8.32 -10.4%
Total 313.76 253.48 23.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.85 3.33 15.5%
Exports 0.18 0.30 -39.7%
Total (Bulk) 4.03 3.63 10.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.23 1.11 10.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.23 1.11 10.8%
Total Movement 5.26 4.74 10.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 302.27 241.52 25.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.23 7.22 -13.7%
Ending Inventory 308.50 248.74 24.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
27-Apr-19 28-Apr-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 107.07 78.16 37.0%
Retail/Institutional 36.25 38.17 -5.0%
Total Pack 143.32 116.33 23.2%
Reprocessed -75.46 -80.17 -5.9%
Pack from Fruit 67.86 36.15 87.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.62 0.63 -1.0%
Imports – Foreign 182.85 186.65 -2.0%
Domestic Receipts 4.63 7.36 -37.0%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.39 -90.9%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.28 1.00 227.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.34 0.47 -27.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 459.34 379.50 21.0%
Retail/Institutional 42.17 45.37 -7.1%
Total 501.50 424.87 18.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 143.39 128.54 11.6%
Domestic 13.68 9.44 44.9%
Exports 157.07 137.98 13.8%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 35.94 38.15 -5.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 35.94 38.15 -5.8%
Total Movement 193.01 176.13 9.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 302.27 241.52 25.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.23 7.22 -13.7%
Ending Inventory 308.50 248.74 24.0%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher for the week in both markets as it looked like the funds were starting to cover some of the massive short position they have. New York is still in its recent trading range. Weakness in the Brazilian Real caused some speculative selling earlier in the week in New York, while reports of steady offers from Asia hurt Robusta in London. Futures are acting oversold, so further buying rally is possible at this time. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way. Prices are generally below to well below the cost of production for world producers, and prices are getting to that point for producers in Brazil and Vietnam. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the next crop might still be big as the weather has been good for the trees so far. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week. Cecafe said the country exported 2.976 million bags in April. Vietnam is active in its harvest and the export pace has been good so far this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 2.435 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,718 contracts. The ICO daily average price is now 91.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers with near normal temperatures. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 88.00 and 81.00 July. Support is at 88.00, 86.00, and 83.00 July, and resistance is at 91.00, 93.00 and 95.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1270 July, and resistance is at 1370, 1360, and 1380 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 413,606
: Positions :
: 42,464 120,670 109,924 162,202 137,973 72,262 34,166 386,852 402,733: 26,754 10,874
: Changes from: April 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 26,545) :
: -1,440 5,921 8,917 14,669 8,838 2,839 3,682 24,985 27,359: 1,559 -814
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 29.2 26.6 39.2 33.4 17.5 8.3 93.5 97.4: 6.5 2.6
: Total Traders: 538 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 168 162 150 135 112 46 28 437 373:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/07/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
156,303 97,755 68,752 17,358 6,291 2,743
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.5% 44.0% 11.1% 4.0% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
170 60 47 13 7 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,919 47,285 11,890 3,130 1,195 13,837
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 30.3% 7.6% 2.0% 0.8% 8.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 38 15 18 4 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,671 4,310
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.3% 2.8%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower last week. The trade still is waiting for news of some kind to trigger a move out of trading ranges that have been mostly intact since late last year. Chart patterns on the weekly charts are sideways in New York and sideways in London. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is good in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. However, UNICA reported a slow start to the harvest season in the center-south area due to a lot of rain. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by news that Indian mills are asking the government not to force them to sell Sugar into a depressed world market in order to try to maintain some control over operating losses. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but production this year could be less due to reduced area and low prices. Demand for Sugar has been good, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1150 July. Support is at 1170, 1150, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 321.00 and 308.00 August. Support is at 325.00, 321.00, and 318.00 August, and resistance is at 336.00, 339.00, and 342.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,085,076
: Positions :
: 106,394 232,045 222,009 385,520 479,878 287,516 70,267 1,001,438 1,004,199: 83,638 80,878
: :
: Changes from: April 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 103,919) :
: -6,224 26,151 38,025 68,140 -179 3,830 25,311 103,771 89,309: 148 14,611
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 21.4 20.5 35.5 44.2 26.5 6.5 92.3 92.5: 7.7 7.5
: :
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 60 85 83 76 33 21 224 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/07/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
100,801 52,373 45,299 11,232 3,751 767
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.0% 44.9% 11.1% 3.7% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 56 44 11 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,380 34,941 8,539 4,152 207 3,027
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.2% 34.7% 8.5% 4.1% 0.2% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 24 16 10 5 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,330 4,269
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 4.2%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday, with New York trying to start a reversal, but with London still in down trends. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Arrivals were reported strong in the rest of West Africa as well. Demand appears strong and the market saw stronger than expected grind data when the quarterly grind is released in the EU, North America, and Asia over the past few weeks. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa as there are showers and somewhat cooler temperatures. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but Brazil has been a little dry as has Malaysia. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.874 million tons, from 1.642 million last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.514 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 457 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2290, 2280, and 2230 July, with resistance at 2350, 2380, and 2400 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1700, 1680, and 1640 July. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1640 July, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1760 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 07, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 279,148
: Positions :
: 21,914 50,341 60,750 120,874 132,324 61,919 22,193 265,458 265,609: 13,690 13,539
: Changes from: April 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 8,972) :
: -920 -1,830 3,348 8,883 5,570 -2,835 278 8,476 7,365: 496 1,606
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 18.0 21.8 43.3 47.4 22.2 8.0 95.1 95.1: 4.9 4.9
: Total Traders: 215 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 61 81 41 36 36 18 187 156:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/07/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
326,801 167,856 226,673 35,080 31,065 18,186
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.4% 69.4% 10.7% 9.5% 5.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 49 44 17 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
51,070 2,688 21,887 4,554 598 23,401
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.6% 0.8% 6.7% 1.4% 0.2% 7.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 8 15 10 13 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,767 2,303
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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