About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 13, 2019 14 May 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL May. 13, 2019 101 May 08, 2019
ROUGH RICE May. 13, 2019 178 May 09, 2019
CORN May. 13, 2019 134 May 08, 2019
OATS May. 13, 2019 2 Apr 26, 2019
SOYBEAN May. 13, 2019 300 May 09, 2019
WHEAT May. 13, 2019 1 May 02, 2019

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019-20 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2019-20 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2018-19
All Wheat 1,920 1,821-2,044 1,884
Winter Wheat 1,287 1,194-1,400 1,184
Hard Red Winter 779 662-905 662
Soft Red Winter 277 250-302 286
White Winter 236 201-270 236
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market 2,044 1,364 814 280 270
Agrivisor 1,903 1,278 778 275 225
Allendale 1,903 1,299 760 300 238
Citizens LLC 1,950 N/A N/A N/A N/A
DC Analysis 1,934 1,275 760 280 235
Doane 1,850 1,206 N/A N/A N/A
EDF Man 1,930 1,260 775 250 235
Farm Futures 1,928 1,224 767 258 201
INTL FCStone 1,925 1,308 780 302 226
Sid Love Consulting 1,900 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1,931 1,400 905 250 245
Price Group 1,925 1,260 737 295 230
Prime-Ag 1,900 N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1,958 1,321 841 255 225
RMC 1,894 1,194 662 286 236
Vantage RM 1,821 1,231 696 283 252
Western Milling 1,994 1,397 859 287 249
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,863 1,294 769 283 241

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2018
Corn Production 14,765 14,220-15,010 14,420
Soybean Production 4,187 4,143-4,300 4,544
Corn Soybean
Production
Advanced Market 14,535 4,153
Agrivisor 14,995 4,143
Allendale 14,793 4,154
Citizens LLC 14,400 4,300
DC Analysis 14,755 4,207
Doane 14,840 4,155
EDF Man 14,532 4,208
Farm Futures 15,010 4,146
INTL FCStone 14,760 4,181
Sid Love Consultin 14,619 4,193
Price Group 15,010 4,150
Prime-Ag 14,928 4,185
RMC 14,220 4,240
US Commodities 14,731 4,190
Vantage RM 14,994 4,150
Western Milling 14,986 4,257
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,890 4,175

DJ U.S. May Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,061 1,935-2,216 2,035
Soybeans 925 880-1,038 895
Wheat 1,100 1,086-1,187 1,087
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,142 1,694-2,506 N/A
Soybeans 943 786-1,524 N/A
Wheat 1,073 980-1,173 N/A
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,060 925 1,087 2,205 958 1,044
Agrivisor 2,035 910 1,087 2,220 915 1,075
Allendale 2,035 895 1,087 2,174 959 1,097
Citizens LLC 2,050 915 1,100 1,950 950 1,100
DC Analysis 2,085 945 1,187 2,030 835 1,100
Doane 2,085 945 1,100 2,000 850 980
EDF Man 2,135 910 1,087 2,387 890 1,049
Farm Futures 2,069 934 1,086 2,097 970 1,075
INTL FCStone 2,216 1,038 1,103 2,158 1,524 1,106
Sid Love Consulting 1,935 895 1,087 1,694 855 982
Northstar 2,050 915 1,100 2,245 1,013 1,122
Prime-Ag 2,035 895 1,087 2,153 865 1,052
Price Group 2,035 895 1,101 2,245 850 1,058
RJ O’Brien 2,188 962 1,112 2,506 966 1,173
RMC 2,035 920 1,087 1,835 875 1,097
US Commodities 2,055 880 1,095 2,146 826 1,075
Vantage RM 2,011 880 1,087 2,166 786 993
Western Milling 1,985 964 1,118 2,251 1,063 1,146
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,060 945 1,102 2,240 968 1,055

DJ May Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
2018-19 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 96.6 95.0-98.5 96.0
Soybeans 116.9 116.0-118.0 117.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 97.0 117.0
Agrivisor 97.0 117.0
Allendale 96.0 116.5
Citizens LLC 97.0 118.0
DC Analysis 96.0 117.0
Doane 96.5 117.0
EDF Man 97.0 116.0
Farm Futures 95.0 117.0
INTL FCStone 96.8 116.5
North Star 98.5 117.8
Price Group 97.0 117.0
Prime Ag 96.0 117.0
RMC 96.0 116.0
US Commodities 95.5 116.5
Western Milling 98.0 116.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 97.0 118.0
2018-19 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 48.2 46.5-50.0 47.0
Soybeans 55.8 55.0-57.0 55.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 49.0 56.0
Agrivisor 48.0 56.0
Allendale 47.0 55.0
Citizens LLC 48.0 56.5
DC Analysis 49.0 55.0
Doane 48.0 56.0
EDF Man 50.0 56.0
Farm Futures 48.0 56.0
INTL FCStone 47.5 56.0
North Star 49.0 57.0
Price Group 48.0 56.0
Prime Ag 49.0 56.0
RMC 48.0 55.5
US Commodities 46.5 55.5
Western Milling 48.0 56.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 48.0 55.0

DJ May World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA April
Corn 315.5 313.4-318.0 314.0
Soybeans 109.0 107.0-115.7 107.4
Wheat 276.1 274.1-277.5 275.6
2019-20
Average Range USDA April
Corn 304.0 271.2-329.0 N/A
Soybeans 113.0 100.0-143.1 N/A
Wheat 272.8 230.0-285.0 N/A
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 315.0 109.0 277.0 329.0 111.0 275.0
Agrivisor 315.0 108.4 275.6 307.0 105.0 285.0
Allendale 314.0 107.4 275.6 271.2 111.2 276.0
Citizens LLC 316.0 109.4 276.5 318.0 112.0 230.0
Doane 316.0 110.0 277.0 280.0 110.0 285.0
EDF Man 316.0 107.0 276.0 310.0 112.0 259.0
Farm Futures 316.0 110.6 274.1 285.0 100.0 274.5
INTL FCStone 313.4 115.7 274.8 300.4 143.1 272.6
Northstar 318.0 109.0 277.5 295.0 119.0 282.0
US Commodities 315.0 107.0 277.0 316.0 108.0 278.0
Prime-Ag 316.0 108.0 276.0 320.0 110.0 280.0
RMC 314.0 107.4 275.6 315.0 108.0 277.0
Western Milling 315.0 109.0 277.0 N/A N/A N/A
Zaner Ag Hedge 317.0 108.7 275.0 306.0 120.0 272.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as some in the trade gave up hope on a trade deal with the Chinese and despite stronger than expected export sales. Demand overall has not been as strong as expected in export markets this year, and the USDA reports this morning were not expected to change this fact. Minneapolis found some support from ideas of the planting delays that were confirmed in the USDA reports on Monday night. Spring Wheat areas could see more precipitation this week to keep US planting progress slow. The US Spring Wheat planting progress has been very slow as producers wait for the rains to go away and for the ground to dry. It is also cold there and some early planted Wheat could get hurt. There are forecasts for cold weather in Europe as well. Black Sea areas are still a little too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms today, then dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near to below normal after today. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 435, 428, and 426 July, with resistance at 443, 448, and 454 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 391, 387, and 384 July, with resistance at 409, 415, and 421 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 512, 507, and 505 July, and resistance is at 524, 525, and 529 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower yesterday in narrow range trading. The export sales report was considered positive. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures. Planting is still being reported near the Gulf Coast and in Texas, and initial development has been reported to be variable. Good reports are heard near and west of Houston. Reports from southern Louisiana suggest that the crop is not in that good shape. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. The domestic market is using price breaks to extend forward coverage as the mills push to own Rice into the next harvest. Prices have been firm in the south due to the export demand and have been steady in the north on the planting delays.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation all week. Temperatures should near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1124 and 1174 July. Support is at 1082, 1080, and 1066 July, with resistance at 1103, 1105, and 1109 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower as hopes for a trade deal with China evaporated in a cloud of tariff threats. The market got a weak export sales report to add to ideas of weakening demand. Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods today if no agreement is reached in negotiations in Washington and China has said it will retaliate. It’s still a weather market now as planting has fallen farther behind the pace of the last five years. More delays were seen last week as a series of storms moved through much of the Midwest. More precipitation, this time mostly rains, are expected for much of the Great Plains and Midwest this week to keep any planting progress slow. Drier weather is forecast for next week, then rains are expected to return. It is more and more likely that the crop overall will be planted late, and this fact increases the likelihood that there could be a little yield loss and that some area could be switched to Soybeans. Brazil Winter Corn appears to be in good condition. Crop estimates are high and have shown a tendency to increase as the crop develops. Most areas have seen enough rain for now. Corn prices are reported to be weakening in South America as the summer production from both Brazil and Argentina is now available.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 352 and 341 July. Support is at 351, 348, and 345 July, and resistance is at 355, 359, and 362 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 280, 277, and 275 July, and resistance is at 283, 289, and 296 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on ideas of no deal this week with China and on slow exports in the USDA reports. Soybeans trends are still down. The market is waiting for the trade deal with China, but worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. No deal is expected this week as both sides have apparently hardened positions due to the Trump threat to increase tariffs. The market also expects big competition for export sales from South America now. Export differentials from the US and South America have been under pressure for this reason and also as the South American crop is now available. Prices are a little lower in Brazil than in the US despite a lack of farmer selling in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 806, 800, and 794 July, and resistance is at 817, 827, and 836 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 288.00, 285.00, and 282.00 July, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 302.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2600 July. Support is at 2650, 2630, and 2600 July, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2750 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in consolidation trading. This market is waiting for results from Washington along with everyone else. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Prices have consolidated the losses in the last few days since the StatsCan stocks reports that were no worse for prices than expected. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was lower and made new contract lows on the price action in Chicago and in petroleum markets. Short term trends are now down.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 559,545 tons, from 525,986 tons last month. AmSpec said exports are now 550,785 tons, from 481,425 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 430.00, 427.00, and 424.00 July, with resistance at 445.00, 448.00, and 452.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1940 July. Support is at 2000, 1990, and 1970 July, with resistance at 2030, 2090, and 2110 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation through this week. Drier this weekend and early next week. Temperatures should be below normal today, but warmer starting tonight.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +51 July +147 July +78 July +36 July +1 July
June +41 July +64 July +26 July
July +41 July +64 July +25 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
May
June
July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 9
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, May 9 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 427.50 dn 0.80
Track Thunder Bay 441.70 up 0.80
Track Vancouver 456.70 up 4.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 502.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 505.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 515.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 532.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 507.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 510.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 467.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 415.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1,950 -10.00 Unuoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 140 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1550)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 174,138 lots, or 6.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,391 3,391 3,391 3,391 3,341 3,391 50 4 1,554
Jul-19 3,414 3,437 3,401 3,403 3,398 3,415 17 60 314
Sep-19 3,468 3,478 3,431 3,456 3,448 3,454 6 164,118 117,940
Nov-19 3,446 3,499 3,445 3,469 3,454 3,467 13 24 100
Jan-20 3,463 3,468 3,430 3,455 3,438 3,448 10 9,930 37,702
Mar-20 3,451 3,451 3,451 3,451 3,469 3,451 -18 2 32
Corn
Turnover: 722,574 lots, or 13.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,870 1,875 1,868 1,870 1,870 1,870 0 7,206 78,214
Jul-19 1,918 1,918 1,909 1,911 1,913 1,912 -1 77,358 380,072
Sep-19 1,928 1,932 1,921 1,925 1,930 1,925 -5 548,580 1,190,302
Nov-19 1,946 1,947 1,938 1,944 1,945 1,941 -4 186 1,176
Jan-20 1,950 1,955 1,944 1,951 1,953 1,949 -4 88,942 274,840
Mar-20 1,955 1,963 1,955 1,960 1,961 1,957 -4 302 8,306
Soymeal
Turnover: 4,846,484 lots, or 12.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,636 2,636 2,577 2,636 2,570 2,601 31 774 2,274
Jul-19 2,648 2,681 2,596 2,623 2,614 2,637 23 95,874 239,428
Aug-19 2,686 2,702 2,607 2,649 2,623 2,666 43 2,502 1,666
Sep-19 2,695 2,716 2,633 2,658 2,657 2,670 13 4,480,704 2,022,896
Nov-19 2,705 2,725 2,656 2,677 2,670 2,680 10 2,380 2,988
Dec-19 2,735 2,748 2,686 2,700 2,699 2,708 9 82 178
Jan-20 2,727 2,745 2,674 2,701 2,699 2,708 9 263,074 231,178
Mar-20 2,688 2,697 2,630 2,649 2,683 2,666 -17 1,094 2,104
Palm Oil
Turnover: 440,374 lots, or 19.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 4,134 4,150 4,134 4,150 4,154 4,134 -20 136 15,974
Jun-19 – – – 4,288 4,308 4,288 -20 0 16
Jul-19 – – – 4,400 4,352 4,400 48 0 32
Aug-19 – – – 4,198 4,218 4,198 -20 0 0
Sep-19 4,412 4,428 4,392 4,412 4,418 4,414 -4 413,666 555,042
Oct-19 – – – 4,510 4,510 4,510 0 0 22
Nov-19 – – – 4,556 4,556 4,556 0 0 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,662 4,662 4,662 0 0 14
Jan-20 4,604 4,616 4,584 4,598 4,602 4,598 -4 26,566 96,572
Feb-20 – – – 4,542 4,544 4,542 -2 0 4
Mar-20 4,670 4,682 4,670 4,682 4,656 4,674 18 6 6
Apr-20 – – – 4,636 4,636 4,636 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 542,754 lots, or 29.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,260 5,260 5,242 5,250 5,310 5,250 -60 120 13,552
Jul-19 – – – 5,308 5,368 5,308 -60 0 12
Aug-19 – – – 5,352 5,352 5,352 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,414 5,426 5,350 5,380 5,406 5,388 -18 505,708 779,904
Nov-19 – – – 5,502 5,502 5,502 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,712 5,730 5,712 -18 0 10
Jan-20 5,568 5,570 5,502 5,530 5,550 5,536 -14 36,926 97,338
Mar-20 – – – 5,636 5,636 5,636 0 0 16
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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