About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 09, 2019 284 May 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL May. 09, 2019 241 May 07, 2019
ROUGH RICE May. 09, 2019 122 May 07, 2019
CORN May. 09, 2019 273 May 06, 2019
SOYBEAN May. 09, 2019 820 May 07, 2019
WHEAT May. 09, 2019 8 May 02, 2019

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019-20 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2019-20 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2018-19
All Wheat 1,920 1,821-2,044 1,884
Winter Wheat 1,287 1,194-1,400 1,184
Hard Red Winter 779 662-905 662
Soft Red Winter 277 250-302 286
White Winter 236 201-270 236
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market 2,044 1,364 814 280 270
Agrivisor 1,903 1,278 778 275 225
Allendale 1,903 1,299 760 300 238
Citizens LLC 1,950 N/A N/A N/A N/A
DC Analysis 1,934 1,275 760 280 235
Doane 1,850 1,206 N/A N/A N/A
EDF Man 1,930 1,260 775 250 235
Farm Futures 1,928 1,224 767 258 201
INTL FCStone 1,925 1,308 780 302 226
Sid Love Consulting 1,900 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1,931 1,400 905 250 245
Price Group 1,925 1,260 737 295 230
Prime-Ag 1,900 N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1,958 1,321 841 255 225
RMC 1,894 1,194 662 286 236
Vantage RM 1,821 1,231 696 283 252
Western Milling 1,994 1,397 859 287 249
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,863 1,294 769 283 241

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2018
Corn Production 14,765 14,220-15,010 14,420
Soybean Production 4,187 4,143-4,300 4,544
Corn Soybean
Production
Advanced Market 14,535 4,153
Agrivisor 14,995 4,143
Allendale 14,793 4,154
Citizens LLC 14,400 4,300
DC Analysis 14,755 4,207
Doane 14,840 4,155
EDF Man 14,532 4,208
Farm Futures 15,010 4,146
INTL FCStone 14,760 4,181
Sid Love Consultin 14,619 4,193
Price Group 15,010 4,150
Prime-Ag 14,928 4,185
RMC 14,220 4,240
US Commodities 14,731 4,190
Vantage RM 14,994 4,150
Western Milling 14,986 4,257
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,890 4,175

DJ U.S. May Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,061 1,935-2,216 2,035
Soybeans 925 880-1,038 895
Wheat 1,100 1,086-1,187 1,087
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,142 1,694-2,506 N/A
Soybeans 943 786-1,524 N/A
Wheat 1,073 980-1,173 N/A
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,060 925 1,087 2,205 958 1,044
Agrivisor 2,035 910 1,087 2,220 915 1,075
Allendale 2,035 895 1,087 2,174 959 1,097
Citizens LLC 2,050 915 1,100 1,950 950 1,100
DC Analysis 2,085 945 1,187 2,030 835 1,100
Doane 2,085 945 1,100 2,000 850 980
EDF Man 2,135 910 1,087 2,387 890 1,049
Farm Futures 2,069 934 1,086 2,097 970 1,075
INTL FCStone 2,216 1,038 1,103 2,158 1,524 1,106
Sid Love Consulting 1,935 895 1,087 1,694 855 982
Northstar 2,050 915 1,100 2,245 1,013 1,122
Prime-Ag 2,035 895 1,087 2,153 865 1,052
Price Group 2,035 895 1,101 2,245 850 1,058
RJ O’Brien 2,188 962 1,112 2,506 966 1,173
RMC 2,035 920 1,087 1,835 875 1,097
US Commodities 2,055 880 1,095 2,146 826 1,075
Vantage RM 2,011 880 1,087 2,166 786 993
Western Milling 1,985 964 1,118 2,251 1,063 1,146
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,060 945 1,102 2,240 968 1,055

DJ May Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
2018-19 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 96.6 95.0-98.5 96.0
Soybeans 116.9 116.0-118.0 117.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 97.0 117.0
Agrivisor 97.0 117.0
Allendale 96.0 116.5
Citizens LLC 97.0 118.0
DC Analysis 96.0 117.0
Doane 96.5 117.0
EDF Man 97.0 116.0
Farm Futures 95.0 117.0
INTL FCStone 96.8 116.5
North Star 98.5 117.8
Price Group 97.0 117.0
Prime Ag 96.0 117.0
RMC 96.0 116.0
US Commodities 95.5 116.5
Western Milling 98.0 116.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 97.0 118.0
2018-19 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 48.2 46.5-50.0 47.0
Soybeans 55.8 55.0-57.0 55.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 49.0 56.0
Agrivisor 48.0 56.0
Allendale 47.0 55.0
Citizens LLC 48.0 56.5
DC Analysis 49.0 55.0
Doane 48.0 56.0
EDF Man 50.0 56.0
Farm Futures 48.0 56.0
INTL FCStone 47.5 56.0
North Star 49.0 57.0
Price Group 48.0 56.0
Prime Ag 49.0 56.0
RMC 48.0 55.5
US Commodities 46.5 55.5
Western Milling 48.0 56.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 48.0 55.0

DJ May World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA April
Corn 315.5 313.4-318.0 314.0
Soybeans 109.0 107.0-115.7 107.4
Wheat 276.1 274.1-277.5 275.6
2019-20
Average Range USDA April
Corn 304.0 271.2-329.0 N/A
Soybeans 113.0 100.0-143.1 N/A
Wheat 272.8 230.0-285.0 N/A
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 315.0 109.0 277.0 329.0 111.0 275.0
Agrivisor 315.0 108.4 275.6 307.0 105.0 285.0
Allendale 314.0 107.4 275.6 271.2 111.2 276.0
Citizens LLC 316.0 109.4 276.5 318.0 112.0 230.0
Doane 316.0 110.0 277.0 280.0 110.0 285.0
EDF Man 316.0 107.0 276.0 310.0 112.0 259.0
Farm Futures 316.0 110.6 274.1 285.0 100.0 274.5
INTL FCStone 313.4 115.7 274.8 300.4 143.1 272.6
Northstar 318.0 109.0 277.5 295.0 119.0 282.0
US Commodities 315.0 107.0 277.0 316.0 108.0 278.0
Prime-Ag 316.0 108.0 276.0 320.0 110.0 280.0
RMC 314.0 107.4 275.6 315.0 108.0 277.0
Western Milling 315.0 109.0 277.0 N/A N/A N/A
Zaner Ag Hedge 317.0 108.7 275.0 306.0 120.0 272.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on speculative buying. It looked like mostly a short covering rally as the funds and other speculators have been short due to poor export demand reports. Ideas of disease in SRW crops helped keep futures on a firmer note than the row crops. The crop is still early enough in its development that good weather now could help those problems fade from view. Minneapolis found some support from ideas of the planting delays that were confirmed in the USDA reports on Monday night. Spring Wheat areas could see more precipitation this week to keep US planting progress slow. The US Spring Wheat planting progress has been very slow as producers wait for the rains to go away and for the ground to dry. It is also cold there and some early planted Wheat could get hurt. There are forecasts for cold weather in Europe as well. Black Sea areas are still a little too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms today, then dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near to below normal after today. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 435, 428, and 426 July, with resistance at 448, 454, and 460 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 366 July. Support is at 391, 387, and 384 July, with resistance at 409, 415, and 421 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 515, 512, and 507 July, and resistance is at 524, 525, and 529 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. Funds and other speculators were the best buyers and commercials were the best sellers. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures. Planting has been active near the Gulf Coast and in Texas, and initial development has been reported to be variable. Good reports are heard near and west of Houston. Reports from southern Louisiana suggest that the crop is not in that good shape. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. The domestic market is using price breaks to extend forward coverage as the mills push to own Rice into the next harvest. Prices have been firm in Texas due to good demand for limited supplies. Much of the Rice is moving to Mexico. Prices have been firm in Arkansas due to a lack of producer selling as they wait to get the next crop planted.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation all week. Temperatures should near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1124 and 1174 July. Support is at 1094, 1082, and 1080 July, with resistance at 1105, 1109, and 1117 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 8
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.44 8.34 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.94 8.93 0.00
Brokens 8.11 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher and filled a gap left on the daily charts when the Trump tweets hit over the weekend. Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods this Friday if no agreement is reached in negotiations in Washington that start tomorrow. The trade yesterday was a consolidation day, but there was some end-user buying to go with speculative short covering. The US is unhappy as China is supposed to be trying to change some of what has already been agreed to. There were ideas that the Chinese side might not come to negotiate, but the Chinese government said that the plans to travel to Washington were still on. The next round of meetings starts today. It’s still a weather market now as planting has fallen farther behind the pace of the last five years. More delays were seen last week as a series of storms moved through much of the Midwest. More precipitation, this time mostly rains, are expected for much of the Great Plains and Midwest this week to keep any planting progress slow. It is more and more likely that the crop overall will be planted late, and this fact increases the likelihood that there could be a little yield loss and that some area could be switched to Soybeans. Brazil Winter Corn appears to be in good condition. Crop estimates are high and have shown a tendency to increase as the crop develops. Most areas have seen enough rain for now. Corn prices are reported to be weakening in South America as the summer production from both Brazil and Argentina is now available.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 363, 359, and 355 July, and resistance is at 372, 373, and 375 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 262 July. Support is at 275, 272, and 270 July, and resistance is at 281, 283, and 289 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed at the close in further response to the Trump tweets over the weekend that threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods this Friday if no agreement is reached in negotiations in Washington that start tomorrow. The US is unhappy as China is supposed to be trying to change some of what has already been agreed to. There were ideas that the Chinese side might not come to negotiate, but the Chinese government said that the plans to travel to Washington were still on. Soybeans trends are still down. The market is waiting for the trade deal with China, but worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. Export differentials from the US and South America have been under pressure for this reason and also as the South American crop is now available. Prices are a little lower in Brazil than in the US despite a lack of farmer selling in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 824, 817, and 812 July, and resistance is at 836, 841, and 851 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 289.00 July. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 288.00 July, and resistance is at 297.00, 302.00, and 304.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2600 July. Support is at 2690, 2660, and 2630 July, with resistance at 2750, 2780, and 2800 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in reaction to the StatsCan stocks data that showed still ample supplies of Canola but not as much as the market had feared and the stronger price action in Chicago. The Trump tweets caused selling here as well. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was lower and made new contract lows on the price action in Chicago and in petroleum markets. Short term trends are now down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 435.00, 430.00, and 427.00 July, with resistance at 440.00, 442.00, and 445.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1940 July. Support is at 2000, 1990, and 1970 July, with resistance at 2040, 2090, and 2110 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation through this week. Drier this weekend and early next week. Temperatures should be below normal today, but warmer starting tonight.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +42 July +147 July +74 July +36 July +1 July
June +42 July +65 July +31 July
July +41 July +65 July +29 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
May
June
July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 7
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, May 7 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 422.40 dn 0.20
Track Thunder Bay 443.30 up 5.90
Track Vancouver 453.30 up 5.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 510.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 522.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 517.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 475.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 420.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1,980 00.00 Unuoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 144 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1470)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 86,274 lots, or 2.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,302 3,320 3,302 3,312 3,308 3,312 4 1,122 5,200
Jul-19 3,358 3,363 3,350 3,360 3,350 3,356 6 26 360
Sep-19 3,399 3,419 3,388 3,415 3,403 3,404 1 79,738 141,646
Nov-19 3,410 3,443 3,394 3,443 3,411 3,409 -2 46 60
Jan-20 3,406 3,415 3,387 3,415 3,403 3,402 -1 5,338 38,542
Mar-20 3,407 3,411 3,407 3,411 3,413 3,409 -4 4 18
Corn
Turnover: 707,158 lots, or 13.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,875 1,875 1,865 1,870 1,867 1,869 2 8,626 93,850
Jul-19 1,905 1,914 1,902 1,909 1,909 1,906 -3 133,826 382,210
Sep-19 1,926 1,929 1,913 1,920 1,924 1,920 -4 512,676 1,220,906
Nov-19 1,938 1,945 1,934 1,937 1,940 1,938 -2 178 1,090
Jan-20 1,952 1,952 1,942 1,945 1,948 1,946 -2 50,524 272,226
Mar-20 1,961 1,962 1,952 1,958 1,960 1,957 -3 1,328 7,988
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,355,832 lots, or 35.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,529 2,545 2,509 2,542 2,536 2,537 1 3,274 3,548
Jul-19 2,556 2,574 2,553 2,567 2,556 2,561 5 55,308 248,478
Aug-19 2,582 2,601 2,582 2,593 2,585 2,591 6 626 7,098
Sep-19 2,602 2,613 2,594 2,608 2,598 2,605 7 1,219,368 1,971,864
Nov-19 2,618 2,633 2,615 2,628 2,616 2,617 1 4,322 3,610
Dec-19 2,662 2,669 2,662 2,669 2,661 2,665 4 4 166
Jan-20 2,663 2,673 2,653 2,668 2,660 2,664 4 71,228 212,378
Mar-20 2,656 2,668 2,650 2,663 2,661 2,654 -7 1,702 1,136
Palm Oil
Turnover: 355,906 lots, or 15.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 4,180 4,228 4,160 4,160 4,186 4,172 -14 924 16,268
Jun-19 – – – 4,370 4,370 4,370 0 0 16
Jul-19 – – – 4,414 4,414 4,414 0 0 32
Aug-19 – – – 4,278 4,292 4,278 -14 0 0
Sep-19 4,430 4,450 4,404 4,412 4,408 4,432 24 324,510 553,548
Oct-19 – – – 4,510 4,486 4,510 24 0 22
Nov-19 – – – 4,556 4,556 4,556 0 0 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,676 4,676 4,676 0 0 14
Jan-20 4,634 4,638 4,594 4,600 4,594 4,618 24 30,472 89,334
Feb-20 – – – 4,558 4,558 4,558 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,656 4,656 4,656 0 0 0
Apr-20 – – – 4,636 4,612 4,636 24 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 315,736 lots, or 17.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,238 5,400 5,238 5,238 5,236 5,262 26 490 14,692
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 12
Aug-19 5,376 5,376 5,376 5,376 5,360 5,376 16 2 32
Sep-19 5,410 5,418 5,382 5,386 5,382 5,402 20 283,846 755,114
Nov-19 5,502 5,502 5,502 5,502 5,452 5,502 50 2 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,726 5,674 5,726 52 0 10
Jan-20 5,566 5,574 5,532 5,538 5,534 5,554 20 31,396 87,652
Mar-20 – – – 5,652 5,652 5,652 0 0 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322