About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 5-May 28-Apr 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 18 11 19 19
Corn Planted 23 15 36 46
Corn Emerged 6 3 7 13
Soybeans Planted 6 3 14 14
Sorghum Planted 22 20 29 29
Rice Planted 48 38 66 69
Rice Emerged 35 27 42 50
Peanuts Planted 22 8 21 19
Sugar beets Planted 31 25 60 67
Oats Planted 50 43 54 72
Oats Emerged 36 31 33 51
Winter Wheat Headed 29 19 31 41
Spring Wheat Planted 22 13 27 49
Spring Wheat Emerged 4 4 19
Barley Planted 37 28 40 56
Barley Emerged 12 6 12 27

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 2 6 28 52 12
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 6 28 49 15
Winter Wheat Last Year 16 21 29 27 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 1 7 32 49 11
Pastures and Ranges Last Week
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 5 15 38 37 5

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 08, 2019 284 May 06, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL May. 08, 2019 420 May 06, 2019
ROUGH RICE May. 08, 2019 1 May 03, 2019
CORN May. 08, 2019 210 May 03, 2019
ETHANOL May. 07, 2019 42 May 01, 2019
OATS May. 08, 2019 5 Apr 23, 2019
SOYBEAN May. 08, 2019 762 May 06, 2019
WHEAT May. 08, 2019 10 May 02, 2019

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of March 31, 2019 – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of March 31, 2019, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31
2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018
Barley 2,182 3,050 306 340 2,488 3,390
Canola 8,838 7,586 1,181 1,477 10,019 9,063
Corn 5,874 6,665 2,428 2,089 8,302 8,754
Flaxseed 169 295 60 66 229 361
Lentils 1,210 1,433 153 179 1,363 1,612
Oats 1,163 1,895 239 209 1,401 2,103
Dry peas 1,290 1,910 389 349 1,679 2,259
All rye 79 217 15 34 93 251
Soybeans 1,701 1,709 1,212 1,084 2,913 2,794
All wheat 11,385 12,691 4,309 3,703 15,694 16,394
Durum wheat 2,950 2,700 965 618 3,915 3,318
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 6
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 02, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/02/2019 04/25/2019 05/03/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 73 0 9,181 21,340
CORN 976,842 1,366,477 1,898,528 35,624,580 33,203,833
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 462 4,745
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 200 0 2,792 12,679
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 24,212 17,775 72,001 1,207,619 4,675,523
SOYBEANS 600,441 507,285 534,940 32,158,303 44,052,773
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 477,918 645,662 332,086 21,878,557 22,236,137
Total 2,079,413 2,537,472 2,837,555 90,881,494 104,207,054
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed. Ideas of disease in SRW crops helped keep futures on a firmer note than the row crops. The crop is still early enough in its development that good weather now could help those problems fade from view. Minneapolis found some support from ideas of the planting delays and more bad weather last week. Spring Wheat areas could see more precipitation this week to keep US planting progress slow. Minneapolis remained weak on fears of a dramatic increase in planted area to Spring Wheat in Canada. The US Spring Wheat planted area was projected to be significantly down in the coming year, but increased area in Canada is bigger and more important overall for prices. The US Spring Wheat planting progress has been very slow as producers wait for the rains to go away and for the ground to dry. It is also cold there and some early planted Wheat could get hurt. There are forecasts for cold weather in Europe as well. Black Sea areas are still a little too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms today and tomorrow, then dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal after today. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation or dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 435, 428, and 426 July, with resistance at 440, 448, and 454 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 366 July. Support is at 391, 387, and 384 July, with resistance at 409, 415, and 421 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 512, 507, and 505 July, and resistance is at 519, 524, and 525 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Hart patterns still suggest that a rally is possible.. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures. Planting has been active near the Gulf Coast and in Texas, and initial development has been reported to be very good. However, reports from southern Louisiana suggest that reports of good condition are exaggerated and that the crop is not in that good shape ay all. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. The market seems content to trade in a wide trading range for now and this implies that somewhat higher prices are possible over the next couple of weeks. The domestic market is using price breaks to extend forward coverage as the mills push to own Rice into the next harvest. Prices have been firm in Texas due to good demand for limited supplies. Much of the Rice is moving to Mexico. Prices have been firm in Arkansas due to a lack of producer selling as they wait to get the next crop planted.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation all week. Temperatures should near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1066, 1059, and 1047 July, with resistance at 1080, 1082, and 1097 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower in response to the Trump tweets over the weekend that threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods this Friday if no agreement is reached in negotiations in Washington that start tomorrow. The US is unhappy as China is supposed to be trying to change some of what has already been agreed to. There were ideas that the Chinese side might not come to negotiate, but the Chinese government said that the plans to travel to Washington were still on. That created some buying interest after the opening and prices were only moderately lower at the close. It’s still a weather market now as planting has fallen farther behind the pace of the last five years. More delays were seen last week as a series of storms moved through much of the Midwest. Rain was reported, with some big amounts seen. More precipitation, this time mostly rains, are expected for much of the Great Plains and Midwest this week to keep any planting progress slow. It is more and more likely that the crop overall will be planted late, and this fact increases the likelihood that there could be a little yield loss and that some area could be switched to Soybeans. Brazil Winter Corn appears to be in good condition as the crop develops and moves to pollination. Crop estimates are high and have shown a tendency to increase as the crop develops. Most areas have seen enough rain for now. Corn prices are reported to be weakening in South America as the summer production from both Brazil and Argentina is now available.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 359, 355, and 351 July, and resistance is at 367, 372, and 373 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 262 July. Support is at 275, 272, and 270 July, and resistance is at 281, 283, and 289 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower in response to the Trump tweets over the weekend that threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods this Friday if no agreement is reached in negotiations in Washington that start tomorrow. The US is unhappy as China is supposed to be trying to change some of what has already been agreed to. There were ideas that the Chinese side might not come to negotiate, but the Chinese government said that the plans to travel to Washington were still on. That created some buying interest after the opening and prices were only moderately lower at the close.. Soybeans trends are still down. The market is waiting for the trade deal with China, but worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. Export differentials from the US and South America have been under pressure for this reason and also as the South American crop is now available. Prices are a little lower in Brazil than in the US despite a lack of farmer selling in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 824, 817, and 812 July, and resistance is at 834, 841, and 851 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 289.00 July. Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 288.00 July, and resistance is at 297.00, 302.00, and 304.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2600 July. Support is at 2690, 2660, and 2630 July, with resistance at 2750, 2780, and 2800 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower and made new contract lows on demand concerns with China and the price action in Chicago. The Trump tweets caused selling here as well. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was lower and made new contract lows on the price action in Chicago and in petroleum markets. Short term trends are now down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 430.00, 427.00, and 424.00 July, with resistance at 436.00, 440.00, and 442.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1940 July. Support is at 1970, 1950, and 1920 July, with resistance at 2020, 2040, and 2090 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation through this week. Temperatures should be below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +50 July +147 July +74 July +35 July +1 July
June +40 July +65 July +33 July
July +40 July +65 July +32 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
May
June
July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 6
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, May 6 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 422.60 dn 0.40
Track Thunder Bay 437.40 up 0.20
Track Vancouver 447.40 dn 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 507.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 512.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 522.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 512.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 517.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 527.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 472.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 425.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1,980 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 141 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1468)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 178,544 lots, or 6.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,300 3,310 3,300 3,300 3,288 3,308 20 566 6,450
Jul-19 3,340 3,357 3,340 3,350 3,340 3,350 10 20 372
Sep-19 3,393 3,412 3,388 3,396 3,395 3,403 8 173,248 145,746
Nov-19 3,419 3,424 3,389 3,389 3,400 3,411 11 12 50
Jan-20 3,395 3,412 3,386 3,398 3,397 3,403 6 4,686 38,080
Mar-20 3,409 3,416 3,409 3,416 3,411 3,413 2 12 20
Corn
Turnover: 542,816 lots, or 10.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,869 1,870 1,863 1,863 1,862 1,867 5 12,400 103,060
Jul-19 1,910 1,914 1,905 1,913 1,910 1,909 -1 39,486 378,606
Sep-19 1,920 1,930 1,919 1,928 1,925 1,924 -1 438,388 1,222,564
Nov-19 1,937 1,944 1,937 1,943 1,941 1,940 -1 130 1,120
Jan-20 1,949 1,954 1,942 1,952 1,948 1,948 0 51,666 264,788
Mar-20 1,962 1,963 1,954 1,963 1,961 1,960 -1 746 6,914
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,225,568 lots, or 57.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,506 2,553 2,505 2,516 2,483 2,536 53 574 6,708
Jul-19 2,550 2,580 2,544 2,556 2,553 2,556 3 116,962 243,136
Aug-19 2,582 2,602 2,577 2,587 2,582 2,585 3 3,648 7,090
Sep-19 2,581 2,615 2,581 2,600 2,592 2,598 6 1,940,376 1,930,194
Nov-19 2,607 2,633 2,605 2,620 2,618 2,616 -2 3,598 3,618
Dec-19 2,663 2,670 2,656 2,656 2,646 2,661 15 16 166
Jan-20 2,641 2,676 2,639 2,663 2,655 2,660 5 159,996 214,134
Mar-20 2,650 2,669 2,650 2,656 2,653 2,661 8 398 1,120
Palm Oil
Turnover: 469,118 lots, or 20.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 4,196 4,198 4,102 4,158 4,196 4,186 -10 3,496 16,130
Jun-19 – – – 4,370 4,370 4,370 0 0 16
Jul-19 – – – 4,414 4,424 4,414 -10 0 32
Aug-19 – – – 4,292 4,302 4,292 -10 0 0
Sep-19 4,372 4,438 4,370 4,428 4,390 4,408 18 445,264 547,748
Oct-19 – – – 4,486 4,468 4,486 18 0 22
Nov-19 – – – 4,556 4,538 4,556 18 0 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,676 4,658 4,676 18 0 14
Jan-20 4,562 4,628 4,560 4,622 4,584 4,594 10 20,358 83,494
Feb-20 – – – 4,558 4,550 4,558 8 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,656 4,656 4,656 0 0 0
Apr-20 – – – 4,612 4,612 4,612 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 453,626 lots, or 24.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,202 5,284 5,200 5,230 5,212 5,236 24 542 15,078
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 12
Aug-19 5,316 5,410 5,316 5,370 5,328 5,360 32 38 32
Sep-19 5,336 5,412 5,330 5,406 5,328 5,382 54 422,052 768,184
Nov-19 5,532 5,532 5,424 5,424 5,468 5,452 -16 8 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,674 5,674 5,674 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,488 5,564 5,480 5,560 5,476 5,534 58 30,986 83,558
Mar-20 – – – 5,652 5,594 5,652 58 0 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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