William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
It’s quite clear beans have no friends out there – as evidenced by 6 consecutive lower closes! If it keeps raining, then corn-to-beans – if it doesn’t, then bean planting will resume! Record US & World carry-over hang like an albatross around the mkts neck! South American harvest is mostly done & provides stiff competition! But is it DARKEST BEFORE THE DAWN?
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – were punky this week -absent a trade deal! Mon inspections were 491,000 (350 – 550) & Thur sales were 336,000 (400-800)
- PLANTING PROGRESS – Beans are 3% in (2018-5% Avg-6%)
- PLANTING DELAYS – the cold, wet Spring has finally got the mkt’s attention as we enter the month of May – which is “crunch time”! After mid-May, things will really get interesting – should the weather pattern continue!
- SOUTH AMERICA – Argentine bean prices have been collapsing due to a very weak currency & an active harvest – leaving them at a big discount to US & Brazil beans
- MAY USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REPORT -comes out Friday 5/10 at 11am & will garner special interest – as it’s the first glimpse at NEW CROP #’S
- RECORD SHORT OPEN INTEREST- is like a ticking time bomb waiting to be triggered by any weather glitch
- EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT – for sure the trend is your friend & it’s been solidly down since early Feb – but the down has been overdone & well could well correct up at any time
The fundamentals are bearish but we’re plenty cheap already! Careful pushing the short side – especially with the hyper-inflated short open-interest!
The long-anticipated impact of planting-delays forced by a cold, wet Spring – have finally surfaced this week – as indicated by July beans 25 cent loss & July corn’s 9 cent gain! Whether it comes to fruition or not, the perception is that as the planting window for corn closes, acres will go to beans! At the very least, late planted corn will have lower yields! The other positive is that the widely anticipated US/China trade deal will be an immediate boon for corn & ethanol exports.
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 1,366 (850-1.300) & Thur sales were 796,000 (600-1,000)
- PLANTING PROGRESS -corn is 15% in (2018- 15% Avg – 27%)
- PLANTING DELAYS – of course, the wide held perception is that inclement planting weather past May 15 will force producers to switch to beans – this may or may not happen – depending on the producer’s feeling of whether he can make more on beans than corn & also whether is ground is set up to handle the switch (fertilizer-wise) but most certainly there will be a yield-drag – the later the corn goes in!
- TRADE DEAL – ebb & flow of the US & China trade negotiations has been draining but we still feel it will happen – maybe by month’s end – because both countries need it
Corn has several positive fundamentals in its camp – including consistently good exports, an imminent trade deal, planting delays & a record short fund position! Any one of these is capable of catalyzing a solid rally – but if more than one is realized, then a substantial rally is possible – especially from the historically cheap prices we’re at!!
The recently concluded Wheat Quality Council Tour confirmed the recent good-to-excellent ratings – at 64%! However offsetting that is the very slow planting pace of the Spring wht crop – 13% in (2018-9% Avg – 33%)! With out any fresh news from the global wht crops in Europe, these two contrasting fundamentals basically offset each other – with the July wht contract losing 6 cents for the week but still remaining in a tight consolidation range!
June cattle succumbed to an extreme long open interest of 154,000 contracts with a sudden, violent $10 break off its highs (125-115) – feeding off poor demand due to our bad Spring weather & a hefty short=term supply of cattle. Even with a sharp rally in its sister mkt – June hogs – June cattle closed lower 9 consecutive days in a row! So the mkt has gone from very overbought to very oversold in a short period of time! But with a trade deal close & the barbecue season right around the corner, we feel “the down” has run its course!
The inevitable correction from an extreme overbought mkt has occurred – leading to a $12 break (99-87) in June hogs! But most looked at this as only an excellent buying opportunity – given the international issues. Those would be a possible trade deal & and the insidious ASF epidemic in China – both of which could exponentially increase pork exports! Indeed, the mkt acted appropriately this week rallying sharply to the tune of a $4.50 gain (88.15-92.55)!
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