Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with Unemployment at 7:30 A.M. and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 9:00 A.M. On the Corn front we have dry weather forecasted until Sunday when the heavens once again open up and we should see rain until at least Wednesday of next week. Funds remain short and farmers are starting to switch acreage to Soybeans as it is getting late in the game for healthy Corn planting. The talks with China are late in the game as well and if an agreement is not reached by the deadline in two weeks, there will be no overtime, and expect the U.S. to walk away. In the overnight electronic session the May Corn is currently trading at 363 which is 1 cent higher. The trading range has been 363 ¼ to 362 ¼.
On the Ethanol front the EPA is working on a compromise with Ethanol waivers as farmers feel the pinch and this also has been a disappointing planting season not to mention further problems with refineries disruptions and requiring extra maintenance and transportation woes due to flooding. The May Ethanol futures expire today and will be off the board while the June contract posted a trade at 1.326 which is .008 lower. 9 contracts traded and Open Interest is at 1,084 contracts. The market is currently showing 5 bids @ 1.326 and 1 offer @ 1.340.
On the Crude Oil front the market is digesting the huge builds in the Gulf Coast while the delicate trade talks with China continue and the question is will they be or NOT be onboard with the Iranian sanctions. OPEC is yet to commit to any production increase, so don’t expect OPEC or Russia to make up for lost barrels. Libya and Venezuela have internal issues that could lead to civil war so don’t expect anything there and you can never count on Nigeria to add lost barrels. The technical are telling me we are vulnerable for a washout to$58 a barrel. We just had an outstanding Jobs number released as I write, and I believe investors will not want to carry a heavy short position over the weekend. We will get a good education at the 1:30 P.M. close which way traders will shake this market. In the overnight electronic session the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 6211 which is 30 points higher. The trading range has been 6214 to 6130.
On the Natural Gas front I see the bears stepping up to the plate again. These traders still see more downside and their obviously not afraid to add to their shorts so deep in the hole. In the overnight electronic session the June Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.579 which is 1 cent lower. The trading range has been 2.611 to 2.576.
Have a Great Trading Day!
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374