Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 2
For the week ended Apr 25, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 122.1 297.4 25461.6 23503.3 4811.9 2145.2
hrw 50.1 96.9 9254.7 9266.9 2183.7 723.9
srw 43.3 85.0 3382.7 2504.3 710.2 451.3
hrs 19.2 65.5 6951.7 6066.5 1004.4 479.7
white 9.5 50.0 5389.9 5271.8 847.1 376.3
durum 0.0 0.0 482.6 393.9 66.5 114.0
corn 586.5 209.5 46057.3 50935.8 11194.3 2242.3
soybeans 313.4 23.5 45137.4 54770.3 12874.3 819.8
soymeal 79.2 16.5 10176.4 10060.8 2999.4 268.1
soyoil 7.3 0.0 669.7 798.8 196.8 4.2
upland cotton 144.8 56.3 13778.0 15844.4 5307.0 3027.0
pima cotton 12.9 0.5 699.1 585.4 263.3 40.4
sorghum 185.0 0.0 1510.4 5087.3 603.4 0.0
barley 1.7 0.0 61.3 40.0 22.8 31.6
rice 2.2 0.0 2814.7 2556.4 634.2 24.4
General Comments: Cotton was lower on chart based selling as futures broke some support areas on the daily charts. Old crop is weaker on demand concerns even though demand has been improved over the last six weeks. Bad weather for planting and development of the crop is causing some buying in the new crop months. There is still expectations that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies. These expectations are starting to be fulfilled. USDA showed that planting progress was good in its weekly crop updates last week, but planting could be slower this week due to bad weather in much of the Delta and Southeast continues. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn or Rice due to relative pricing.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get scattered showers through the weekend and then again starting about Tuesday. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have showers through early next week. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 71.17 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 67,873 bales, from 65,896 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 231 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7450 July. Support is at 7630, 7570, and 7520 July, with resistance of 7700, 7760, and 7800 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and made new contract lows. Some buying finally started to appear later in the session on ideas that the market was getting oversold. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts as the market looks at a big oranges crop and little demand for FCOJ. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to develop. Producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia and harvest progress should be strong. Fruit for the next crop is developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Production is very uniform so far this year and development throughout the state is about equal. Some fruit drop is being reported, but this is normal as the trees move to the next crop and drop the old fruit. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather, but showers and storms are possible today. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 89.00, and 86.00 May, with resistance at 101.00, 104.00, and 106.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets on what appeared to be chart based selling after New York did not break out to new recent highs in the last few days. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the next crop might still be big as the weather has been good for the trees so far. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest and the export pace has been good so far this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.440 million bags. UCE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,706 contracts. The ICO daily average price is now 92.05 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 89.00, 86.00, and 83.00 July, and resistance is at 95.00, 97.00 and 99.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1310 July, and resistance is at 1420, 1440, and 1460 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in both markets as the market reacted to bearish Crude Oil and products trading after the release of inventory data for the US. The data showed a bigger increase in supplies than expected. Chart patterns on the weekly charts are sideways in New York and sideways in London, but the short-term price action has been weaker. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is good in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by drier weather. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but production this year could be less due to reduced area and low prices.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. ICE said that 1,324 delivery notices were posted against May contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1200 and 1150 July. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1150 July, and resistance is at 1240, 1280, and 1300 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 321.00 and 308.00 August. Support is at 327.00, 325.00, and 321.00 August, and resistance is at 334.00, 339.00, and 342.00 August.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and in London. It felt like a reversal day in London. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is underway. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Arrivals were reported strong in the rest of West Africa as well. Demand appears strong and the market saw stronger than expected grind data when the quarterly grind is released in the EU, North America, and Asia over the next couple of weeks. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.429 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 457 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2290, 2240, and 2230 July, with resistance at 2350, 2370, and 2410 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1830 July. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, with resistance at 1800, 1820, and 1860 July.