About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 2
For the week ended Apr 25, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 122.1 297.4 25461.6 23503.3 4811.9 2145.2
hrw 50.1 96.9 9254.7 9266.9 2183.7 723.9
srw 43.3 85.0 3382.7 2504.3 710.2 451.3
hrs 19.2 65.5 6951.7 6066.5 1004.4 479.7
white 9.5 50.0 5389.9 5271.8 847.1 376.3
durum 0.0 0.0 482.6 393.9 66.5 114.0
corn 586.5 209.5 46057.3 50935.8 11194.3 2242.3
soybeans 313.4 23.5 45137.4 54770.3 12874.3 819.8
soymeal 79.2 16.5 10176.4 10060.8 2999.4 268.1
soyoil 7.3 0.0 669.7 798.8 196.8 4.2
upland cotton 144.8 56.3 13778.0 15844.4 5307.0 3027.0
pima cotton 12.9 0.5 699.1 585.4 263.3 40.4
sorghum 185.0 0.0 1510.4 5087.3 603.4 0.0
barley 1.7 0.0 61.3 40.0 22.8 31.6
rice 2.2 0.0 2814.7 2556.4 634.2 24.4

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 03, 2019 295 Apr 30, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL May. 03, 2019 502 May 01, 2019
ROUGH RICE May. 03, 2019 37 May 01, 2019
CORN May. 03, 2019 775 May 01, 2019
OATS May. 03, 2019 11 Apr 23, 2019
SOYBEAN May. 03, 2019 983 May 01, 2019
WHEAT May. 03, 2019 324 May 01, 2019

General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday. It has been a recovery rally but the market remains weak overall. The Kansas Wheat Tour has been in northwest areas and now in central and southern areas. The yield reports in general have been good and there has been no mention so far of abandoned or unplanted fields. Yields are significantly higher than a year ago. The state and all of the Great Plains have seen a lot of rain and snow since last Fall, and the moist conditions are helping to support the high yield projections. However, the rain is likely to greatly diminish protein potential, especially where the rains have been the heaviest. Spring Wheat areas are turning a little dryer this week so there are hopes that planting progress can be a little better. Planting progress this week was well behind normal.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains today and again over the weekend. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation today and in the northeast on Friday, then a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 418 July. Support is at 426, 423, and 420 July, with resistance at 440, 447, and 454 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 366 July. Support is at 390, 387, and 384 July, with resistance at 407, 415, and 421 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 488 July. Support is at 507, 505, and 501 July, and resistance is at 517, 518, and 525 July.

General Comments: Rice was a little lower again yesterday in light volume trading. It was a day of consolidation trading. Flat prices in Asia have kept speculators trading from the sell side. Ideas of planting delays in Rice and continued good export demand have been reasons to support futures. Initial reports from Texas and Louisiana show that crops there are in good condition. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. The market seems content to trade in a wide trading range for now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this weekend, more precipitation today and by early next week. Temperatures should near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1047, 1044, and 1041 July, with resistance at 1066, 1070, and 1074 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 1
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.44 8.34 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.94 8.93 0.00
Brokens 8.11 —- —-

General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday as bad weather for planting continued to move through the Midwest. Forecasts call for rains to continue off and on through the end of the week and to return next week after a dry weekend. Fieldwork and planting remain slow, with only Iowa in the Midwest and some southern states making good progress. Many Midwest areas got more rain and some very cool temperatures in the north, but warmer temperatures in the south yesterday. More precipitation, this time mostly big rains, are expected for much of the Great Plains and Midwest this week to keep any planting progress slow. It is more and more likely that the crop overall will be planted late, and this fact increases the likelihood that there could be a little yield loss and that some area could be switched to Soybeans. The weekly charts show that Corn is in a down trend, but the market has already come close to many objectives.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 366, 363, and 359 July, and resistance is at 369, 373, and 375 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 303 and 326 July. Support is at 289, 286, and 283 July, and resistance is at 301, 304, and 307 July.

General Comments: Soybeans and products were mostly lower again yesterday. Prices closed well off the lows as some late buying hit the pit. Soybeans and products trends are still down. The market is waiting for the trade deal with China, but worried about overall Chinese Soybeans demand due to the Asian Swine Flu that has decimated the hog herd there. The government reports that at least 18% of its hog herd has been lost and private estimates show much higher loss potential, so the need for feed products is less. Export differentials from the US and South America have been under pressure as the South American crop is now available. Prices are a little lower in Brazil than in the US despite a lack of farmer selling in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 844, 842, and 836 July, and resistance is at 864, 868, and 876 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 296.00 and 289.00 July. Support is at 297.00, 294.00, and 291.00 July, and resistance is at 304.00, 306.00, and 308.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2750, 2730, and 2700 July, with resistance at 2830, 2870, and 2910 July.

General Comments: Canola was lower and made new contract lows on demand concerns with China and the price action in Chicago. A firm Canadian Dollar was bad for Canola prices. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Palm Oil was lower and made new contract lows on the price action in Chicago and in petroleum markets. Short term trends are now down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 433.00, 430.00, and 427.00 July, with resistance at 442.00, 445.00, and 448.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2050 and 1940 July. Support is at 2070, 2040, and 2010 July, with resistance at 2140, 2180, and 2200 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some significant precipitation is likely today, then a dry weekend. More precipitation next week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +44 July +152 July +74 July +28 July +1 July
June +40 July +65 July +27 July
July +43 July +65 July +27 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 30
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, April 30 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
*Par Region 420.90 dn 1.30
Track Thunder Bay 448.20 dn 3.70
Track Vancouver 456.20 dn 3.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 510.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 520.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 530.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 515.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 525.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 535.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 475.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 425.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1,980 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 135 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1355)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322