About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 28-Apr 21-Apr 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 11 9 12 13
Corn Planted 15 6 15 27
Corn Emerged 3 3 5
Soybeans Planted 3 1 5 6
Sorghum Planted 20 17 26 25
Rice Planted 38 31 54 57
Rice Emerged 27 18 28 37
Peanuts Planted 8 2 8 8
Sugar beets Planted 25 14 22 48
Oats Planted 43 36 38 61
Oats Emerged 31 27 29 41
Winter Wheat Headed 19 9 18 29
Spring Wheat Planted 13 5 9 33
Barley Planted 28 17 24 41
Barley Emerged 6 2 6 15

Crop Condition

Winter Wheat This Week 2 6 28 49 15
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 6 30 48 14
Winter Wheat Last Year 16 21 30 26 7

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower and closed about in the middle of the weekly trading range as futures continue to fade away from the 80.00 May level. The daily charts show that futures are developing a short-term trading range. The weekly charts show that a stronger test of support near 75.00 May is likely. The weekly export sales report showed stronger demand for US Cotton. There is still expectations that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies. These expectations are starting to be fulfilled. USDA showed that planting progress was good in its weekly crop updates last week, but USDA could report slower planting progress in the reports this week due to bad weather in much of the Delta and Southeast last week. Some rains have also appeared in western Texas. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn or Rice due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities are being opened. Cotton production is poised to make a comeback in the Delta and Southeast, and the wet weather implies less Corn planted and more Cotton or Soybeans planted. Prices and producer attitudes imply that more Cotton could be planted.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and Southeast should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have showers. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 71.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 65,735 bales, from 64,257 bales yesterday. ICE said that 28 notices were posted against contracts for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 230 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7700, 7650, and 7630 July, with resistance of 7800, 7850, and 7880 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 256,838
: Positions :
: 55,343 29,296 51,324 47,914 150,804 87,376 12,483 241,957 243,907: 14,881 12,931
: Changes from: April 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: 1,376) :
: 5,145 1,322 758 -3,410 -1,823 192 1,212 2,685 1,470: -1,310 -94
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.5 11.4 20.0 18.7 58.7 34.0 4.9 94.2 95.0: 5.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 59 90 46 55 47 24 249 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and settled near the lows of the week. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts as the market looks at a big oranges crop and little demand for FCOJ. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago as Florida Citrus Mutual showed a 30% increase in state inventories in its weekly report. The increase is coming from less demand and higher imports along with the increased domestic production. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to develop. Producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia and harvest progress should be strong. Fruit for the next crop is developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Production is very uniform so far this year and development throughout the state is about equal. Some fruit drop is being reported, but this is normal as the trees move to the next crop and drop the old fruit. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible today. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 97.00 May. Support is at 97.00, 94.00, and 91.00 May, with resistance at 107.00, 111.00, and 115.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 26
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 4/20/2019
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
4/20/2019 4/21/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 284.30 219.71 29.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.45 7.06 -8.7%
Total 290.75 226.76 28.2%
Pack
Bulk 3.98 3.98 0.0%
Retail/Institutional 0.91 1.59 -42.4%
Total Pack 4.90 5.57 -12.1%
Reprocessed -2.30 -3.42 -32.9%
Pack from Fruit 2.60 2.15 21.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.05 -0.06 -12.3%
Imports – Foreign 15.03 8.63 74.1%
Domestic Receipts 0.32 0.18 75.4%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.83 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ – – NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 301.28 229.85 31.1%
Retail/Institutional 7.36 8.65 -14.9%
Total 308.65 238.50 29.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.43 3.98 11.3%
Exports 0.12 0.34 -64.4%
Total (Bulk) 4.56 4.33 5.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.25 1.34 -6.8%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.25 1.34 -6.8%
Total Movement 5.80 5.66 2.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 296.73 225.53 31.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.11 7.31 -16.4%
Ending Inventory 302.84 232.84 30.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
20-Apr-19 21-Apr-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 101.67 74.97 35.6%
Retail/Institutional 34.91 37.16 -6.1%
Total Pack 136.58 112.12 21.8%
Reprocessed -72.08 -77.62 -7.1%
Pack from Fruit 64.50 34.50 87.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.66 0.79 -17.0%
Imports – Foreign 175.70 170.64 3.0%
Domestic Receipts 4.26 4.23 0.6%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.39 -90.9%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.28 0.99 230.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.34 0.47 -27.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 449.77 359.87 25.0%
Retail/Institutional 40.82 44.35 -8.0%
Total 490.59 404.23 21.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 139.54 125.20 11.5%
Domestic 13.50 9.14 47.6%
Exports 153.04 134.35 13.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 34.71 37.04 -6.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 34.71 37.04 -6.3%
Total Movement 187.75 171.39 9.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 296.73 225.53 31.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.11 7.31 -16.4%
Ending Inventory 302.84 232.84 30.1%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 24,652 :
: Positions :
: 14,029 9,937 1,886 0 25 721 8,345 327 1,240 1,014 2,604 :
: :
: Changes from: April 16, 2019 :
: -92 -303 -30 0 5 -59 207 -84 172 45 -1,005 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.9 40.3 7.7 0.0 0.1 2.9 33.9 1.3 5.0 4.1 10.6 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 86 :
: 23 8 6 0 . . 25 . 19 7 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher for the week in New York and near unchanged for the week in London. Weakness in the Brazilian Real caused some speculative selling earlier in the week in New York, while reports of steady offers from Asia hurt Robusta in London. Futures are acting oversold, so a short-term rally is possible at this time. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way. Prices are generally below to well below the cost of production for world producers, and prices are getting to that point for producers in Brazil and Vietnam. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the next crop might still be big as the weather has been good for the trees so far. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest and the export pace has been good so far this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.450 million bags. UCE said that 40 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,706 contracts. The ICO daily average price is now 93.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 89.00, 86.00, and 83.00 July, and resistance is at 95.00, 97.00 and 99.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1310 July, and resistance is at 1420, 1440, and 1460 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 392,435
: Positions :
: 42,226 118,072 102,319 152,019 128,673 69,912 31,397 366,476 380,461: 25,959 11,973
: Changes from: April 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: -4,898) :
: 446 -2,775 3,412 -2,224 -1,253 -1,252 -2,427 383 -3,042: -5,281 -1,855
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 30.1 26.1 38.7 32.8 17.8 8.0 93.4 96.9: 6.6 3.1
: Total Traders: 518 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 165 146 142 134 112 48 25 425 356:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were mixed last week with New York lower and London higher. The trade still is waiting for news of some kind to trigger a move out of trading ranges that have been mostly intact since late last year. Chart patterns on the weekly charts are sideways in New York and sideways in London. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is good in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by news that Indian mills are asking the government not to force them to sell Sugar into a depressed world market in order to try to maintain some control over operating losses. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but production this year could be less due to reduced area and low prices. Demand for Sugar has been good, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1240, and 1230 July, and resistance is at 1300, 1330, and 1360 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 337.00, 334.00, and 333.00 August, and resistance is at 345.00, 349.00, and 355.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 988,898
: Positions :
: 116,214 194,056 168,570 315,480 515,223 299,516 45,583 899,780 923,432: 89,119 65,466
: Changes from: April 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: -1,927) :
: 9,107 -6,737 593 -17,854 8,356 6,113 1,648 -2,040 3,860: 114 -5,787
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 19.6 17.0 31.9 52.1 30.3 4.6 91.0 93.4: 9.0 6.6
: Total Traders: 253 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 64 82 79 74 33 18 220 197:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and higher in London. New York closed will off the lows in both markets and actually near the highs after testing support on the weekly charts. Trends are still up in both markets. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is still a month or more away. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Arrivals were reported strong in the rest of West Africa as well. Demand appears strong and the market saw stronger than expected grind data when the quarterly grind is released in the EU, North America, and Asia over the next couple of weeks. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, and most in West Africa expect a very good mid crop harvest. Cameroon and Nigeria are reporting less production and prices there are reported strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.393 million bags. ICE said that 127 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 457 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2290, 2240, and 2230 July, with resistance at 2350, 2370, and 2380 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1690 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1800 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 271,562
: Positions :
: 24,522 53,850 63,658 107,551 124,436 62,934 18,336 258,664 260,279: 12,898 11,283
: Changes from: April 16, 2019 (Change in open interest: 2,479) :
: 126 1,025 4,231 425 -2,179 -1,159 1,211 3,623 4,288: -1,144 -1,809
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 19.8 23.4 39.6 45.8 23.2 6.8 95.3 95.8: 4.7 4.2
: Total Traders: 225 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 60 82 42 36 37 17 193 160:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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