About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: All Wheat markets were mixed yesterday as the trade talked once again of good conditions for Winter Wheat and as export sales were better than expected. There was a lot of talk that the market is oversold, and SRW bounced after holding the contract lows. Minneapolis remained weak on the outlook for a dramatic increase in planted area to Spring Wheat in Canada from StatsCan on Wednesday. Canada and China continue to have weaker trade relations and Canola demand from China has been decimated. The US Spring Wheat planted area was projected to be significantly down in the coming year. The US Spring Wheat planting progress has been slow as producers wait for the snow to melt and for the ground to dry. Any major planting delays now could mean that some US Spring Wheat area lies fallow or is planted to Soybeans, especially with the current weaker prices.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains over the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see showers by the weekend and more early next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 415 and 408 May. Support is at 427, 426, and 423 May, with resistance at 442, 445, and 450 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 397, 390, and 353 May. Support is at 400, 397, and 394 May, with resistance at 416, 418, and 423 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 495, 493, and 488 May. Support is at 500, 497, and 494 May, and resistance is at 509, 515, and 522 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was unchanged. Support came in part from another good week of export sales. Mexico and Japan were the main buyers. There are still reports of slow planting progress and firm internal cash markets. Planting has been active near the Gulf Coast and in Texas, and initial reports show that crops there are in good condition. Planting progress has been much more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions. Producers in Texas and Louisiana reported some impressive rains last week that will help flush the crop and aid in germination. Prices have been firm in Texas due to good demand for limited supplies. Much of the Rice is moving to Mexico. Prices have been firm in Arkansas due to a lack of producer selling as they wait to get the next crop planted.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this weekend, but more precipitation by early next week. Temperatures should near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1008, 1002, and 996 May, with resistance at 1021, 1034, and 1042 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on some fund buying related to a stable US Dollar and a stronger Real. There is enough supply out there for current demand, but initial planting weather has not been good and fieldwork and planting is getting off to a slow start. US weather remains cool and wet for most of the Midwest. The forecasts for next week maintain a generally wet outlook as scattered showers should return. There is some work going on in some areas, but many producers appear sidelined and are waiting for drier and firmer soils. Many were unable to do much Fall fieldwork, either, so there is extra soil preparation to be done in anticipation of planting. Brazil Winter Corn appears to be in good condition as the crop develops and moves to pollination. Crop estimates are high and have shown a tendency to increase as the crop develops. Most areas have seen enough rain for now. Corn prices are reported to be weakening in South America as the summer production from both Brazil and Argentina is now available.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 346 and 335 May. Support is at 345, 342, and 340 May, and resistance is at 355, 357, and 360 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 316 May. Support is at 295, 293, and 289 May, and resistance is at 302, 305, and 312 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher yesterday on fund buying tied in part to strength in the Brazilian Real. More offers from Brazil were seen in Chicago as the merchants there need to fix prices for May contracts before First Notice Day. Ideas of weaker demand from China for US or Brazilian Soybeans were reasons to sell. The pork demand from China is an indication of the very strong demand potential for hogs and pork and products and also an indication that Soybeans and Meal demand could be significantly less in the coming year as China works to eradicate the disease and then repopulate its herds. Export differentials from the US and South America have been under pressure for this reason and also as the South American crop is now available. Prices are a little lower in Brazil than in the US despite a lack of farmer selling in Brazil. They are unhappy with the price and nervous over economic changes going on in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 854, 848, and 842 May, and resistance is at 865, 872, and 877 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 300.00 May. Support is at 302.00, 300.00, and 298.00 May, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2760 and 2710 May. Support is at 2750, 2720, and 2690 May, with resistance at 2800, 2840, and 2890 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in part with the better prices in Chicago. StatsCan on Wednesday showed much reduced planted area because of the problems with China, and the market was able to show a recovery. Trends are still down as the market is still pressured by the lack of demand from China. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market as fieldwork and planting are underway. Traders hope that the Canadian government finds a way to cut a deal to get Canola sales and shipments to China flowing again. Palm Oil was lower on talk that there are still big supplies around. Malaysia secured a commitment from China for the latter country to buy more Malaysian Palm Oil, but this was expected and was part of the price. Data on exports so far this month was positive, and the market hopes for more positive demand news. Demand could remain strong as prices are cheaper on a relative basis to Soybean Oil. Short term trends are now down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 437.00, 434.00, and 431.00 May, with resistance at 450.00, 454.00, and 457.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2130, and 2120 July, with resistance at 2200, 2210, and 2220 July.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Apr 25
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended April 21, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2801.4 808.8 186.5 273.7 70.4 1103.3 346.1 435.5 6776.5
Week Ago 2935.2 806.3 200.3 319.6 69.1 1179.9 345.2 410.9 7028.5
Year Ago 2622.1 559.3 199.5 382.1 66.9 1339.5 399.4 245.9 6442.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 347.1 89.2 29.0 47.6 11.6 274.3 48.8 20.4 918.9
Week Ago 452.6 157.7 50.5 43.0 12.6 359.0 70.2 9.4 1210.6
To Date 16004.8 3316.1 1683.9 2782.5 293.1 13447.1 2573.8 433.2 43580.0
Year Ago 13344.8 2892.5 1692.7 2517.1 327.3 14430.4 2165.0 456.2 41086.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 371.8 203.2 0.8 31.3 0.0 107.8 65.2 32.4 839.4
Week Ago 451.2 209.0 0.3 23.3 0.6 124.1 59.8 52.3 951.4
To Date 14644.9 3299.5 310.0 1718.1 81.6 7254.4 1444.2 976.5 35192.0
Year Ago 12588.3 3293.2 134.4 1425.1 153.5 7983.7 1299.3 710.2 32584.9
EXPORTS
This Week 441.7 112.8 21.8 39.4 0.7 90.2 57.2 30.3 799.5
Week Ago 313.3 232.2 81.0 45.0 2.8 150.7 64.1 65.3 972.1
To Date 13206.4 2925.7 1204.1 1868.6 168.1 6815.5 1460.5 1087.6 32634.6
Year Ago 11481.0 2882.0 1198.4 1495.9 215.1 7564.4 1316.0 479.0 30219.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 94.2 13.8 5.3 24.3 1.1 178.1 3.9 15.9 354.7
Week Ago 60.5 19.0 6.0 22.1 1.0 215.7 4.0 19.4 366.4
To Date 2892.8 260.0 219.3 831.8 43.5 6795.8 154.5 844.0 13773.0
Year Ago 3373.7 507.3 203.3 895.9 40.4 6778.9 178.4 554.9 14468.3
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some significant precipitation is likely Saturday and again by the middle of next week. More precipitation next week. Temperatures should be below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April +52 May +161 May +81 May +40 May +1 May
May +50 May +80 May +38 July
June +40 July +67 July +26 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
April
May +35 My -18 May
June +35 July -20 July +47 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 25
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 423.90 -15.20 May 2019 up 1.80
Track Thunder Bay 458.30 7.00 July 2019 up 3.40
Track Vancouver 466.30 15.00 July 2019 up 3.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 522.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 532.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 542.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 527.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 537.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 482.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 440.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,040 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 139 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1310)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 195,800 lots, or 6.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,309 3,316 3,254 3,263 3,315 3,284 -31 16,182 23,322
Jul-19 3,361 3,367 3,306 3,328 3,379 3,335 -44 78 384
Sep-19 3,413 3,414 3,352 3,364 3,412 3,382 -30 173,548 169,040
Nov-19 – – – 3,412 3,412 3,412 0 0 60
Jan-20 3,420 3,420 3,381 3,383 3,408 3,393 -15 5,982 36,606
Mar-20 3,409 3,409 3,400 3,400 3,440 3,407 -33 10 18
Corn
Turnover: 935,542 lots, or 17.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,868 1,874 1,856 1,864 1,872 1,864 -8 55,088 239,204
Jul-19 1,907 1,909 1,891 1,895 1,907 1,898 -9 120,130 386,802
Sep-19 1,916 1,917 1,899 1,902 1,914 1,905 -9 664,960 1,287,136
Nov-19 1,932 1,933 1,914 1,916 1,933 1,920 -13 328 1,170
Jan-20 1,937 1,940 1,917 1,918 1,940 1,927 -13 94,768 243,656
Mar-20 1,948 1,948 1,927 1,929 1,948 1,936 -12 268 5,930
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,645,346 lots, or 42.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,493 2,495 2,474 2,477 2,511 2,485 -26 64,756 88,790
Jul-19 2,512 2,519 2,498 2,505 2,541 2,506 -35 70,040 233,342
Aug-19 2,549 2,610 2,545 2,552 2,577 2,550 -27 2,054 1,788
Sep-19 2,566 2,574 2,555 2,560 2,587 2,564 -23 1,452,206 2,359,448
Nov-19 2,592 2,602 2,586 2,590 2,626 2,592 -34 6,878 3,916
Dec-19 – – – 2,646 2,684 2,646 -38 0 162
Jan-20 2,648 2,654 2,635 2,639 2,664 2,644 -20 44,426 188,184
Mar-20 2,647 2,665 2,646 2,654 2,677 2,647 -30 4,986 692
Palm Oil
Turnover: 590,914 lots, or 26.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 4,324 4,324 4,214 4,224 4,318 4,260 -58 25,162 39,078
Jun-19 – – – 4,550 4,572 4,550 -22 0 20
Jul-19 4,614 4,614 4,602 4,602 4,660 4,604 -56 8 46
Aug-19 4,472 4,472 4,472 4,472 4,646 4,472 -174 4 0
Sep-19 4,570 4,586 4,482 4,504 4,578 4,526 -52 538,282 526,076
Oct-19 – – – 4,604 4,656 4,604 -52 0 12
Nov-19 – – – 4,680 4,732 4,680 -52 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,796 4,850 4,796 -54 0 14
Jan-20 4,702 4,718 4,632 4,650 4,706 4,664 -42 27,458 81,576
Feb-20 – – – 4,726 4,768 4,726 -42 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,708 4,808 4,708 -100 0 0
Apr-20 – – – 4,778 4,808 4,778 -30 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 700,674 lots, or 37.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,274 5,282 5,160 5,190 5,282 5,210 -72 32,574 58,726
Jul-19 – – – 5,370 5,444 5,370 -74 0 12
Aug-19 5,352 5,352 5,302 5,302 5,496 5,314 -182 14 34
Sep-19 5,446 5,448 5,332 5,360 5,452 5,384 -68 648,936 835,048
Nov-19 – – – 5,502 5,570 5,502 -68 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,626 5,626 5,626 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,582 5,586 5,478 5,506 5,590 5,516 -74 19,146 75,142
Mar-20 5,646 5,646 5,580 5,580 5,680 5,612 -68 4 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322