William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
In the absence of a firm trade deal, spring planting weather took center stage and pushed the mkt down 15 cents (895-880)! Even if there are planting delays, that would imply more beans & less corn! Plus South America is coming off good crops & the US & global carry-out is at record levels. But still, much of this is dialed in & there is “0” weather premium.
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 460,667 (460 – 900) & Thur sales were 403,000 (350-700)
- US/CHINA – next week, US trade delegates are travelling to Beijing & the following week – talks are coming to the US – with the hope of some resolution by mid-May!
- PLANTING DELAYS – have been mentioned frequently but the mkt feels it’s premature as a mkt mover until mid-May
- OUTSIDE MKTS – the crude oil has been positive – recently extending its $20 rally off the lows since late Dec – but the US dollar stubbornly clings to its highs – with every 100-200 point break being bought up
- RECORD SHORT FUND POSITION – indicates the consensus of traders feels the mkt is going south
The mkt feels negative – indeed scoring new lows for the year on Thur – However it is hovering just over 10 year lows – with no allowance for any weather issues! So it just very well may be, a lot of bad news is already dialed in!
Within the “grain family”, May Corn had a relatively good week – losing only 2 ½ cents while May Beans dropped 15 cents & May Wht lost 20 cents! The reason may well be that the mkt expects planting delays in May – which would imply a corn-to-bean switch. Also, it’s rumored the trade deal could finally be completed in May – which promises large amounts of Chinese purchases of corn & ethanol!
May Wht lost 20 cents ( 465-445) mostly due to big European crops, sluggish exports & neutral crop conditions
- Russia’s wheat crop was increased to 83.4 MT (2018- 71.7) & Germany’s was raised to 24.4 MT (2018 – 20.3)
- Egypt bought 240,000 MT from Romania & The Ukraine – but not the US even though we’re the cheapest – due to costly freight
- WW good/excellent ratings were unchanged at 60% & Spring Wht plantings were 2% (avg – 13) but it’s still early
June Cat was able to score a $1.20 gain last week off a tightening global supply, a firm tone in the cash mkt, a resurgent consumer demand due to the advent of the barbeque season & ideas a US/China trade deal will include beef! However, today the mkt back-tracked off an April Cattle-On-Feed report that reflected higher-than-expected placements at 105% (exp – 103)! Still, this appears to be merely a correction in a stout uptrend!!
June Hogs have indicated this week the CHINA STORY may be getting stale For now! The mkt is extremely over-bought – it lost 1.75 this week (98.50 – 96.75) – even while still consolidating within a few dollars of its early April Highs! But of more concern – was its limit-down reaction today to a slightly bearish April Cattle-on-Feed report issued Friday! So we’ll let the mkt breathe a few days to see if it can stabilize!
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