William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
With the US/China trade talks on the back burner & it being too early for adverse Spring weather to impact spring planting, the mkt has settled into a sideways pattern this week contained to an 8 cent range -with May beans losing 3 ½ cents for the week! The good news is the April USDA Report reflected less US & Global stocks than expected!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 888,000 (600-900) & Thur sales were a dismal 280,000 (800 – 1,150) On Wed – 133,759 MT – to unknown
- APRIL USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND – was a pleasant friendly surprise with both US & Global ending stocks coming in less than expected US Stocks – 895 (913) Global – 107.4 (108.0) Brazil Beans 117 (116) Argentina 58 (55.3)
- US/CHINA – are on hold for now with hopes of a resolution in the next 3-4 weeks – positive rhetoric in terms agreed-upon enforcement mechanisms are a good sign – overall, once again, both countries need it economically & Trump needs it politically – so we see it happening
- INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS SPRING – in terms of historic flooding & much cold & wet have implied delayed planting but its still early
- MACRO MKTS – the US Dollar is acting toppy, crude oil is up nearly $20 since Jan 1 & the DJI is holding recent gains – all positives for the grain complex!
With the mkt sitting on 10 year lows & no weather premium currently in the price structure & a US/China agreement imminent – we see sideways to up!
The best action the corn mkt exhibited all week what was what it didn’t do off a negative USDA Report issued on Tues at 11am! Higher-than-expected US & Global ending stocks forced a temporary spike-down in May corn but the mkt was able to shake off the early pressure – closing basically unchanged for the day & only a few cents lower for the week! Clearly, the mkt has one eye on possible planting delays – which could force a corn-to-beans switch – and the other on a forthcoming trade agreement which could yield sizable corn & ethanol exports!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 1,035 MMT (1,000 – 1,300) & Thur sales were 548,000 (600-950)
- USDA APRIL REPORT – were higher than estimates but the mkt took it well. US Ending Stocks – 2.035 (1.991) Global 314 (311) Arg 47 (46 ) Brazil 96 (94.8)
- PLANTING DELAYS – It’s Mid-April with plenty of cool wet weather already but the mkt deems it to early to get excited
- RECORD SHORT POSITION – is like a powder keg waiting to go off – should any “friendly news” happen along
- TECHNICAL SUPPORT – the spike-down followed by a steady close after Tuesday’s bearish report was a positive sign for the mkt
For the past 12 trading days, May Corn has been in a sideways pattern (356-366) – awaiting further fundamental news – be it in the form of an agreement between US & China – or – the inception of broad planting progress in the Corn Belt!
Much like May corn, May wht has also been confined to a tight range since mid-March (445-475)! Both US & Global wht ending stocks were higher than pre-report guesses on Tues & crop ratings for WW wht increased by 4% – but the nasty spring weather promised to delay spring wht planting & Egypt was tendering for US wht earlier this week – and those factors seemed to cancel each other out! And of course the BIGGIE is the “when and if” of the resolution of the US/China Trade Deal!
Just when you thought June cat might extend its $6 break (125-119) off its highs from mid-Mar, wintry weather, a stiff discount to cash & spill-over demand from the pork complex intervened to produce a weekly gain of $1.15 (120.35 – 121.50)! The Mkt is also looking favorably ahead at an imminent trade resolution which should “beef up” exports!!
This remarkable bull Mkt – which has gone up roughly three times as fast as it went down – looks prime for a correction – or is it a TOP? Our prognosis is the former – as the bullish fundamentals are just too strong right now – to abandon this mkt – leaving it vulnerable to “topping action”! The combination of an imminent trade deal coupled with the ASF (Asian Swine Fever) should feed the pork complex plentiful exports!!
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