About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower after making new highs for the move. A strong rally on Friday pushed prices from the lows of the week back to the middle of the range for the week. The daily and weekly charts show that an up trend is still intact. USDA trimmed domestic demand and showed a slight increase in ending stocks estimates in its monthly supply and demand updates. The market had expected about unchanged ending stocks. The weekly export sales report showed good demand for US Cotton and there is talk that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies. The sales report was a little less than the previous week, but overall sales of old crop and new crop Cotton remained positive. USDA showed that planting progress was good. Most of the progress this week will be in Texas after some big rains were reported over the weekend in the Delta. The Southeast also got some big rains. The daily charts still imply that the market can move to or above 82.00 cents per pound. US sales have suffered so far this year in world markets, but have started to improve as other sellers run out of supplies. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn or Rice due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities such as gins are being opened. Cotton production is poised to make a comeback in the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers about midweek. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal this week. Texas will have dry weather until some rains appear on Wednesday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 72.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 53,421 bales, from 52,952 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8030, 8070, and 8200 May. Support is at 7760, 7690, and 7650 May, with resistance of 7930, 7980, and 8030 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 277,215
: Positions :
: 47,487 26,931 65,643 60,513 161,251 87,387 11,477 261,031 265,302: 16,184 11,913
: Changes from: April 2, 2019 (Change in open interest: -7,225) :
: 1,532 -9,821 -1,922 -8,669 7,921 648 -2,595 -8,411 -6,418: 1,186 -807
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.1 9.7 23.7 21.8 58.2 31.5 4.1 94.2 95.7: 5.8 4.3
: Total Traders: 287 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 67 102 50 59 45 20 252 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again last week and futures moved to new contract lows. Trends are down as the market looks at a big oranges crop and little demand for FCOJ. USDA estimated production of oranges in Florida at 76.5 million boxes, slightly less than its previous estimate but still a huge recovery from the small crop of the previous year. News that the EU and the US are moving slowly in trade negotiations hurt futures as did news of good production potential for oranges and FCOJ in Brazil. Brazil will most likely remain the major and almost exclusive supplier of FCOJ to the EU. Speculators turned sellers after the recent short covering rally that had found new commercial selling. Ideas continue that production remains strong and demand does not. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to develop. The Early and Mid harvest is over and producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia. Fruit is developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions on Friday and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 May, with resistance at 110.00, 115.00, and 116.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 9, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 24,315 :
: Positions :
: 13,193 10,186 1,965 0 2 984 7,100 427 856 957 3,364 :
: Changes from: April 2, 2019 :
: 904 -201 139 0 2 -322 878 -10 -58 87 279 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.3 41.9 8.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 29.2 1.8 3.5 3.9 13.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 88 :
: 25 13 6 0 . 5 24 4 16 7 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week and made new lows for the move in both markets. Weakness in the Brazilian Real caused some speculative selling in New York, while reports of increased offers from Asia hurt Robusta in London. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market right now, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. Prices are generally below to well below the cost of production for world producers, and prices are getting to that point for producers in Brazil and Vietnam. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the next crop might still be big as the weather has been good for the trees so far. El Nino is fading, but remains in the forecast, and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest and the export pace has been good so far this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.480 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 93.48 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week. Vietnam will see some showers in central and northern areas today and tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 86.00 and 81.00 May. Support is at 88.00, 85.00, and 82.00 May, and resistance is at 93.00, 95.00 and 97.00 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1300 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1440, and 1460 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 421,042
: Positions :
: 42,250 113,401 121,645 155,200 135,950 72,314 36,798 391,409 407,794: 29,633 13,248
: Changes from: April 2, 2019 (Change in open interest: -13,083) :
: 419 -5,734 1,000 -9,749 -3,628 -3,893 -4,601 -12,222 -12,963: -861 -121
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 26.9 28.9 36.9 32.3 17.2 8.7 93.0 96.9: 7.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 547 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 178 155 165 141 118 44 26 456 385:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/09/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
147,114 86,105 63,029 17,672 7,194 2,797
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.5% 42.8% 12.0% 4.9% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
176 65 49 14 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
8,510 41,245 11,077 2,438 1,595 15,530
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8% 28.0% 7.5% 1.7% 1.1% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 35 14 14 9 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,985 4,648
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.0% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were little changed last week as the trade waits for news of some kind to trigger a move. Chart patterns on the weekly charts are sideways in New York and sideways to down in London. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is improving in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. However, it has turned drier in northern areas and there is concern that the dry season is starting early this year. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by news that Indian mills are asking the government not to force them to sell Sugar into a depressed world market in order to try to maintain some control over operating losses. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1240 July, and resistance is at 1290, 1330, and 1360 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 331.00, and 328.00 August, and resistance is at 342.00, 344.00, and 349.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,050,420
: Positions :
: 99,300 196,149 223,801 348,562 513,840 286,474 43,725 958,137 977,515: 92,283 72,905
: Changes from: April 2, 2019 (Change in open interest: -1,181) :
: 9,384 -7,866 13,199 -22,341 7,574 -3,467 -10,756 -3,224 2,151: 2,043 -3,332
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 18.7 21.3 33.2 48.9 27.3 4.2 91.2 93.1: 8.8 6.9
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 61 84 86 80 33 19 225 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/09/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,022 52,171 50,555 10,078 1,963 1,092
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.2% 51.6% 10.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 62 48 12 4 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,255 27,472 7,997 3,311 632 4,821
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.5% 28.0% 8.2% 3.4% 0.6% 4.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 19 15 11 5 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,296 3,490
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 3.6%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both markets. Trends are up. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is still a month or more away. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 10% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Arrivals were reported strong in the rest of West Africa as well. Demand appears strong and the market is expecting stronger grind data when the quarterly grind is released in the EU, North America, and Asia over the next couple of weeks. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, and most in West Africa expect a very good mid crop harvest. Cameroon and Nigeria are reporting less production and prices there are reported strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.252 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 May, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2510 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 May. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1770 Mary, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1870 May.

DJ Cocoa Midcrop in Southwest, Midwest Nigeria to Benefit From Rain After Dry Spell
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Heavy rainfall in Nigeria’s southwest and midwest cocoa regions over the weekend will help the development of the midcrop that has been stunted by dry spells in both regions, officials and traders said Monday.
“The big downpours on Saturday and Sunday in a large part of the southwest provided substantial moisture in the soil for the midcrop to improve,” said Taiye Okikiola, a trader in Ibadan, capital of southwestern Oyo State.
If the rainfall continues, he said, there will be better quality midcrop cocoa beans compared to the beans currently being sold in both regions, which are unusually small in size due to dry weather in the past few weeks.
Oyo, Ogun and Ondo states in the southwest, as well as Edo State in the midwest received heavy rainfall. The rainfall in Ekiti was mild while Osun didn’t have any downpour, according to traders and officials in these southwestern states.
In Ondo state, the largest cocoa producer in the country, Robo Adhuze, a Cocoa Association of Nigeria official, said a heavy downpour occurred in the state on Saturday and Sunday.
Exporters in the two regions are having difficulty getting enough midcrop cocoa with the bean count of 280 grams per 300 beans demanded by foreign buyers, Mr. Okikiola said. Cocoa with a lower bean count of 190 to 220 grams per 300 beans is common in the market at the moment, he said.
The southwest region accounts for 70% of Nigeria’s annual cocoa production of 280,000 to 300,000 metric tons, according to CAN.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 275,305
: Positions :
: 26,224 52,976 57,519 112,686 131,538 63,224 17,816 259,653 259,849: 15,653 15,456
: Changes from: April 2, 2019 (Change in open interest: -14,832) :
: 3,676 -15,102 -3,703 -14,666 11,989 192 -9,562 -14,501 -16,378: -331 1,545
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 19.2 20.9 40.9 47.8 23.0 6.5 94.3 94.4: 5.7 5.6
: Total Traders: 227 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 66 78 43 40 35 19 195 161:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/09/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
339,219 187,344 214,962 31,580 30,432 23,607
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.2% 63.4% 9.3% 9.0% 7.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 51 49 12 12 15
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,823 8,542 26,832 4,595 370 32,186
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 2.5% 7.9% 1.4% 0.1% 9.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 12 20 15 8 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,252 2,288
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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