About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on follow through selling. Selling was seen in many commodities markets in reaction to weaker economic data. It came despite a relatively strong weekly export sales report. USDA showed that planting progress was good, but progress did not really advance that much last week. A major storm moved through the Delta and Southeast over the weekend, and another big storm is in the forecast later this week. The bulk of the bad weather might miss Cotton areas this time. The futures market has absorbed a lot of bad news and is now working higher. US sales have suffered so far this year in world markets, but have started to improve as other sellers run out of supplies. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities such as gins are being opened.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers today and big rains this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal this week. Texas will have dry weather after some showers appear on Saturday. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 71.52 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 52,952 bales, from 52,374 bales yesterday. USDA said on Thursday morning that US Upland Cotton export sales were 289,000 bales this year and 205,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 30,200 bales this year and 2,600 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7650, 7590, and 7550 May, with resistance of 7910, 7930, and 7980 May.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Apr 11
As of Apr 5. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 19 19,045 20,182 -1,137 7,514 9,273 -1,759
Jul 19 34,381 32,873 1,508 4,964 4,565 399
Dec 19 29,147 27,054 2,093 29,650 29,424 226
Mar 20 12,212 11,854 358 1,540 1,462 78
May 20 4,738 4,626 112 162 197 -35
Jul 20 4,831 4,809 22 18 18 0
Dec 20 5,398 5,398 0 7,508 6,886 622
Mar 21 828 828 0 309 309 0
May 21 9 9 0
Jul 21 4 4 0
Total 110,593 107,637 2,956 51,665 52,134 -469
Open Change
Int
May 19 70,436 88,316 -17,880
Jul 19 75,301 63,422 11,879
Oct 19 12 12 0
Dec 19 73,675 63,036 10,639
Mar 20 9,294 8,496 798
May 20 451 454 -3
Jul 20 309 255 54
Dec 20 2,243 1,888 355
Mar 21 7 7 0
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 0 0 0
Total 231,728 225,886 5,842

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and made new lows for the move. Speculators are the best sellers on ideas that production remains strong and demand does not. USDA showed this week that the orange crop is significantly bigger than a year ago even if the estimate was slightly less than the previous one. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago. The movement and Pack report shows that inventories are now about 25% above last year. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to form. The Early and Mid harvest is over and producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia. Fruit is forming and developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions on Friday and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 116.00, and 120.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 12
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 4/6/2019
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
4/6/2019 4/7/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 269.33 213.32 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.87 6.84 -14.2%
Total 275.21 220.16 25.0%
Pack
Bulk 6.61 3.58 84.5%
Retail/Institutional 1.80 1.29 39.1%
Total Pack 8.41 4.88 72.4%
Reprocessed -3.93 -3.67 7.2%
Pack from Fruit 4.48 1.21 270.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.08 -0.06 45.2%
Imports – Foreign 6.14 6.23 -1.5%
Domestic Receipts 0.44 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 – NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 278.52 219.41 26.9%
Retail/Institutional 7.67 8.13 -5.7%
Total 286.19 227.54 25.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.52 3.24 39.5%
Exports 0.22 0.28 -19.8%
Total (Bulk) 4.75 3.52 34.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.32 1.21 9.1%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.32 1.21 9.1%
Total Movement 6.07 4.74 28.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 273.77 215.89 26.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.35 6.92 -8.3%
Ending Inventory 280.12 222.81 25.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
6-Apr-19 7-Apr-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 91.69 66.85 37.2%
Retail/Institutional 32.64 34.12 -4.3%
Total Pack 124.34 100.97 23.1%
Reprocessed -66.28 -69.96 -5.3%
Pack from Fruit 58.05 31.01 87.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.03 0.71 44.0%
Imports – Foreign 148.27 154.54 -4.1%
Domestic Receipts 3.62 3.89 -7.1%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.39 -90.9%
from Non-Reporting Entit 2.59 0.14 1737.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.32 0.47 -31.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 416.43 342.05 21.7%
Retail/Institutional 38.56 41.32 -6.7%
Total 454.99 383.37 18.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 130.05 117.79 10.4%
Domestic 12.62 8.38 50.6%
Exports 142.66 126.17 13.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 32.21 34.40 -6.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 32.21 34.40 -6.3%
Total Movement 174.88 160.56 8.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 273.77 215.89 26.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.35 6.92 -8.3%
Ending Inventory 280.12 222.81 25.7%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets and both markets made new lows for the move. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market right now, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. Quoted differentials remain low for most origins and qualities. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can be between 52 and 55 million bags next year. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.483 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 93.48 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week. Vietnam will see some showers in central and northern areas today and tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 88.00, 85.00, and 82.00 May, and resistance is at 95.00, 97.00 and 98.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 May. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1300 May, and resistance is at 1440, 1460, and 1480 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower along with many other physical markets yesterday. Trends are starting to turn down in London while New York is showing a potential failure to make new highs and turn trends up. The fundamentals of big world Sugar supplies are still the main trading feature, but the market seems ready to rally one more time. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Ideas of big production in Asia also help keep any rallies in check. Brazil weather is improving in all areas in recent weeks. However, it has turned drier in northern areas and there is concern that the dry season is starting early this year. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Near to above normal temperatures are expected next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1240 July, and resistance is at 1300, 1330, and 1360 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 331.00, and 328.00 August, and resistance is at 342.00, 344.00, and 349.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in London after making new highs for the move. New York matched its weekly highs, then collapsed to close lower. Futures are at some longer term resistance areas in New York and appear to be breaking through these areas in London. The market appears to be looking for sales and trade action implies that a squeeze is on between the West African harvests. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is still a month or more away. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Arrivals in other West African countries seem to be increasing due to improved prices.. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa after a dry day today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 4.264 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 May, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2510 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 May. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1750 Mary, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1870 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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