About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed increased ending stocks due to reduced domestic demand. The trade had expected unchanged or slightly reduced stocks levels. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and the US government is indicating that a deal is possible in about a month. Both sides are negotiating the final points. USDA showed that planting progress was good, but progress did not really advance that much last week. A major storm moved through the Delta and Southeast over the weekend, and another big storm is in the forecast later this week. The bulk of the bad weather might miss Cotton areas this time. The futures market has absorbed a lot of bad news and is now working higher. The strong closes on Friday and again yesterday implies that higher prices will be seen over the next few weeks. The daily charts imply that the market can move to or above 82.00 cents per pound. US sales have suffered so far this year in world markets, but have started to improve as other sellers run out of supplies. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities such as gins are being opened.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers on Thursday and about Saturday. Temperatures should be mostly below normal this week. Texas will have dry weather until some showers appear on Saturday. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 72.63 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 48,280 bales, from 41,392 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8030, 8070, and 8200 May. Support is at 7876, 7700, and 7650 May, with resistance of 7930, 7980, and 8030 May.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2016/17 2017/18 Est. 2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.
Item Mar Apr
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 10.07 12.72 14.10 14.10
Harvested 9.51 11.10 10.53 10.53
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 867 905 838 838
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.80 2.75 4.30 4.30
Production 17.17 20.92 18.39 18.39
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.98 23.68 22.70 22.70
Domestic Use 3.25 3.23 3.20 3.10
Exports, Total 14.92 15.85 15.00 15.00
Use, Total 18.17 19.07 18.20 18.10
Unaccounted 2/ 0.06 0.30 0.20 0.20
Ending Stocks 2.75 4.30 4.30 4.40
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 68.0 68.6 69.00-71.00 69.00-71.00
================================================================================
WASDE – 587 – 18 April 2019

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2018/19 Proj.
World
Mar 81.14 118.89 42.18 123.59 42.18 0.36 76.09
Apr 81.05 118.93 42.09 123.18 42.09 0.36 76.44
United States
Mar 4.30 18.39 0.01 3.20 15.00 0.20 4.30
Apr 4.30 18.39 0.01 3.10 15.00 0.20 4.40
Total Foreign
Mar 76.84 100.50 42.17 120.39 27.18 0.16 71.79
Apr 76.75 100.54 42.09 120.08 27.09 0.16 72.04
Major Exporters 4/
Mar 26.84 55.01 2.32 33.80 23.03 0.02 27.32
Apr 26.84 54.79 2.07 33.85 22.83 0.02 27.00
Major Importers 8/
Mar 47.90 42.45 37.26 82.50 2.79 0.14 42.19
Apr 47.81 42.74 37.40 82.05 2.91 0.14 42.85
================================================================================
WASDE – 587 – 28 April 2019

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and made new lows for the move. Speculators are the best sellers. Ideas continue that production remains strong and demand does not. USDA showed a small reduction in production estimates, but there will still be enough oranges and juice for anyone. The crop is still significantly bigger than a year ago. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago. The movement and Pack report shows that inventories are now about 25% above last year. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to form. The Early and Mid harvest is over and producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia. Fruit is forming and developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers today, then dry weather. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions on Friday and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 116.00, and 120.00 May.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits-Apr 9
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :———————————————————–
: 2017-2018 : 2018-2019 : 2017-2018 :
—————————————————————————————-
: —— 1,000 boxes —— —— 1,000 tons
Oranges :
California, all …………: 45,400 49,000 1,816 1,960
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 35,900 40,000 1,436 1,600
Valencia ………………: 9,500 9,000 380 360 :
Florida, all ……………: 45,050 76,500 2,028 3,443
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 18,950 30,500 853 1,373
Valencia ………………: 26,100 46,000 1,175 2,070 :
Texas, all ……………..: 1,880 1,875 80 79
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 1,530 1,300 65 55
Valencia ………………: 350 575 15 24 :
United States, all ………: 92,330 127,375 3,924 5,482
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 56,380 71,800 2,354 3,028
Valencia ………………: 35,950 55,575 1,570 2,454
Grapefruit :
California ……………..: 4,000 4,000 160 160
Florida, all ……………: 3,880 4,900 165 208
Red …………………..: 3,180 4,100 135 174
White …………………: 700 800 30 34
Texas ………………….: 4,800 6,300 192 252 :
United States …………..: 12,680 15,200 517 620 :
Tangerines and mandarins 3/ :
California ……………..: 19,200 22,000 768 880
Florida ………………..: 750 950 36 45 :
United States …………..: 19,950 22,950 804 925 :
Lemons :
Arizona ………………..: 1,000 1,300 40 52
California ……………..: 21,200 20,000 848 800
United States …………..: 22,200 21,300 888 852
————————————————————————————–
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties
in Florida and Texas.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangos.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York and London was unchanged. There was not much trading interest shown from anyone yesterday. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market right now, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. For example, Honduras has cut its export projections by more than a million bags due to lack of buying interest in its coffee. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can be between 52 and 55 million bags next year. Vietnam is active in its harvest, but producers are not willing to sell at current prices. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.491 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.76 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Vietnam will see some showers in central and northern areas today and tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 91.00, 88.00, and 85.00 May, and resistance is at 95.00, 97.00 and 98.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 May. Support is at 1400, 1390, and 1360 May, and resistance is at 1440, 1460, and 1480 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher and near the recent highs in both markets, and both markets remain in a trading range. The fundamentals of big world Sugar supplies are still the main trading feature, but the market seems ready to rally one more time. USDA showed a reduction of cane production in Florida, but supplies will still be big. There should be no need for supplemental import quotas based on the current data. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Ideas of big production in Asia also help keep any rallies in check. Brazil weather is improving in all areas in recent weeks. However, it has turned drier in northern areas and there is concern that the dry season is starting early this year. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1240 July, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1330 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 335.00, 334.00, and 331.00 August, and resistance is at 342.00, 344.00, and 349.00 August.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2016/17 2017/18 Est. 2018/19 Proj. 2018/19 Proj.
Item Mar Apr
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 2054 1876 2008 2008
Production 2/ 8969 9293 9103 9060
Beet Sugar 5103 5279 5004 4997
Cane Sugar 3866 4014 4099 4063
Florida 2055 1983 2078 2043
Hawaii 43 0 0 0
Louisiana 1628 1862 1875 1875
Texas 140 169 145 145
Imports 3244 3277 2862 2862
TRQ 3/ 1611 1663 1560 1560
Other Program 4/ 419 326 350 350
Other 5/ 1213 1287 952 952
Mexico 1201 1223 897 897
Total Supply 14267 14445 13973 13930
Exports 95 170 35 35
Deliveries 12258 12185 12270 12270
Food 6/ 12102 12048 12125 12125
Other 7/ 156 137 145 145
Miscellaneous 38 82 0 0
Total Use 12391 12438 12305 12305
Ending Stocks 1876 2008 1668 1625
Stocks to Use Ratio 15.1 16.1 13.6 13.2
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2017/18 Est.
Mar 1002 6010 204 4723 1099 1395
Apr 1002 6010 204 4723 1099 1395
2018/19 Proj.
Mar 1395 6152 70 5095 1102 1420
Apr 1395 6152 70 5095 1102 1420
================================================================================
WASDE – 587 – 17 April 2019

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher again in both markets after an initial push lower failed to generate any additional selling interest or much in the way of sell stops. Trends are still up in both markets on the daily charts. Futures are at some longer term resistance areas in New York and appear to be breaking through these areas in London. The market appears to be looking for sales and trade action implies that a squeeze is on between the West African harvests. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is still a month or more away. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.748 million tons for the season, from about 1.521 million at this point last year. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa after a dry day today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.260 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2460 May. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2350 May, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2510 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 May. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1750 Mary, with resistance at 1810, 1840, and 1860 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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