About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Tuesday and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2018-19 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 2,035.0 2,013 1,940-2,211 1,835
Soybeans 895.0 913 847-1,062 900
Wheat 1,087.0 1,076 1,045-1,103 1,055
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 314.0 312.4 308.9-315.1 308.5
Soybeans 107.4 108.4 106.5-114.6 107.2
Wheat 275.6 271.1 268.5-274.2 270.5
***
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
2018-19 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 96.0 94.7 94.4-95.0 94.5
Soybeans 117.0 116.1 115.0-117.0 116.5
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 47.0 46.8 46.0-49.0 46.0
Soybeans 55.0 55.5 54.5-56.0 55.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Apr 9
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
18/19 17/18 16/17 : 18/19 17/18 16/17 : 18/19 17/18 16/17
Soybeans 895.0 438.0 302.0 :154.33 152.96 147.50 : 360.58 341.67 349.31
Brazil na na : 79.50 76.18 63.14 : 117.00 122.00 114.60
Argentina na na : 6.30 2.11 7.03 : 55.00 37.80 55.00
China na na : 0.13 0.13 0.11 : 15.90 15.20 13.64
Soyoil 1,860 1,990 1,711 : 11.34 10.50 11.24 : 56.97 55.17 53.72
Corn 2,035 2,140 2,293 :168.15 147.07 160.06 :1107.38 1076.401,123.41
China na na : 0.05 0.02 0.08 : 257.33 259.07 263.61
Argentina na na : 30.50 21.00 25.99 : 47.00 32.00 41.00
S.Africa na na : 1.00 2.10 2.29 : 11.00 13.10 17.55
Cotton 4.40 4.30 2.75 : 42.09 40.92 37.91 : 118.93 123.76 106.66
All Wheat 1,087 1,099 1,181 :178.46 181.22 183.36 : 732.87 763.19 756.40
China na na : 1.20 1.00 0.75 : 131.43 134.33 133.27
EU 27 na na : 24.00 23.29 27.44 : 137.60 151.26 145.37
Canada na na : 24.00 21.95 20.16 : 31.80 29.98 32.14
Argentina na na : 13.70 12.16 13.83 : 19.50 18.50 18.40
Australia na na : 10.00 13.85 22.64 : 17.30 21.30 31.82
Russia na na : 37.00 41.42 27.81 : 71.69 85.17 72.53
Ukraine na na : 16.50 17.78 18.11 : 25.06 26.98 26.79
Sorghum 60.0 35.0 33.0 : na na na
Barley 91.0 94.0 106.0 : na na na
Oats 36.0 41.0 50.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 53.6 29.4 46.0 : 47.29 47.13 47.25 : 501.39 495.49 490.95

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed to mostly lower yesterday in reaction to the improved crop condition as reported by USDA on Monday night. The monthly supply and demand estimates were generally in line with trade estimates and did not produce much market reaction. Winter Wheat prices are already low and producers who also run cattle in the Great Plains are reported to be grazing Wheat area instead of growing it for grain. Wheat export sales have been improved over the last month for the US as competing countries such as Russia run low on supplies and prices in general increase in world markets. It seems difficult to be very bearish at current prices in the Chicago markets. Minneapolis prices could move below $5.00 per bushel for a short time if the planted area in Canada does increase dramatically. A big storm now through the end of this week could bring up to two feet of snow for some parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Minnesota and any fieldwork will be delayed. It will get cold behind the system, but it should not get cold enough to injure crops in areas that do not get the snow.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains on Wednesday and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see light showers today and Thursday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions this week and light precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 456, 453, and 447 May, with resistance at 464, 468, and 471 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 422, 418, and 415 May, with resistance at 434, 443, and 447 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 494 May. Support is at 521, 518, and 515 May, and resistance is at 530, 540, and 544 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on speculative selling. Speculators were selling based on the higher ending stocks levels for medium and short grain Rice and then All Rice. Ending stocks levels for long grain were left unchanged. USD did cut export demand for long grain milled Rice, but increased domestic consumption to offset the lost exports. USDA made big cuts to medium and short grain exports as the business has been less than expected so far this year. That left ending stocks projections at the highest level in years for all Rice. Demand remains generally good. Export sales have held together well. Domestic demand is about average as mills continue to buy. Reports indicate that they are moving now for full coverage until the next harvest. Weather conditions have improved in Texas and near the Gulf Coast and planting and initial growth are reported. The big rains earlier in the Spring made for good soil conditions for planting, but some areas are already turning dry. Some producers have had to flush the crops to get them germinated and growing. Planting and field preparation are being reported into Arkansas now as the weather has improved. Some storms moved through almost all of the growing areas over the weekend and field work will be halted for at least a few days now. More rain is expected later this week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains on Thursday and again about Saturday. Temperatures should near to below normal.
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1024, 1016, and 1008 May, with resistance at 1047, 1058, and 1064 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 10
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.44 8.34 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.94 8.93 0.00
Brokens 8.11 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower before the release of the USDA monthly supply and demand estimates yesterday, then rallied to close with small gains. There were no surprises in the updates as USDA mostly cut feed and residual demand to increase ending stocks. The changes had been indicated in the monthly supply and demand reports. The general feeling now is that most of the bad news for prices is now in the market and that a small to moderate rally is possible at this time. The actual supply of Corn and feed grains in general might be a little less than indicated in the reports as a result of the massive flooding seen in the western Midwest and Great Plains this Spring. The floods inundated many silos and elevators holding a lot of Corn among other grains and oilseeds. There are still no overall loss estimates, but the losses could be rather significant. The weather in the Midwest this Spring has been cold and wet and there has been little, if any, fieldwork down. This could become a problem as there was very little fieldwork done last Fall. Farmers need all the time they can get to prepare the land for planting this year and so far they are not getting much time at all. They will need to deal with a major Winter storm that could move through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota for the rest of this week. The storm could bring some rains and snow to Chicago and into Wisconsin by the end of the week, but the big storm will be north and northwest of Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 360, 355, and 351 May, and resistance is at 363, 366, and 367 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 277, 272, and 270 May, and resistance is at 284, 286, and 291 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed and Soybeans were mostly unchanged in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA made only minor changes to supplies and demand and cut ending stocks estimates very slightly. The reports were generally in line with trade expectations. The latest round of bilateral meeting between the US and China concluded last week, and an agreement is still at least a month away. However, both sides appear satisfied with the progress on the talks and plan video conference calls to push forward on the agreement in the coming weeks. USDA showed larger than expected Soybeans production for Brazil, but trimmed Argentine Soybeans production. Overall Soybeans production in South America was a little higher than expected. The Brazil harvest is at least 75% complete, and export competition from that country and Argentina is increasing. There are still bit supplies in the US as well, so the world will have plenty of offer to choose from. That makes it hard to look for major rallies in futures anytime soon unless the US weather remains bad. It has been wet and cool in the Midwest so far this Spring, and any fieldwork has been next to impossible to do. For now, that implies that some projected Corn area could get planted to Soybeans, but it is also very possible that some ground will be allowed to go fallow this year, especially in the flooded areas where more work will be need to bring soils into condition for production. A major Winter storm could move through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota later this week. The storm could bring some rains and snow to Chicago and into Wisconsin by the end of the week, but the biggest part of the storm will be north and northwest of the city.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 133,759 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 892, 883, and 882 May, and resistance is at 908, 913, and 924 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2880, 2860, and 2840 May, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2950 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly higher in response to the price action in Chicago. Traders are worried about demand and hope that the Canadian government finds a way to cut a deal to get Canola sales and shipments to China flowing again. New crop months were a little higher on ideas that the current low prices could cause producers to look for other crops to plant instead of Canola this year. Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and the lack of demand from China and expect stocks data to show higher supplies in the coming months. Palm Oil was lower in response to the MPOB data that showed higher than expected supplies. Data on exports so far this month was positive. Demand could remain strong as prices are cheaper on a relative basis to Soybean Oil. Short term trends remain are still turning up, but futures are pushing hard against support areas.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 481,425 tons, from 453,283 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 459.00, 462.00, and 467.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2280 June. Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2120 May, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2270 May.

DJ Malaysia’s March Palm Oil Exports 1.62M Tons; Up 22% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 22% on month at 1.62 million metric tons in March, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the March crop data and revised numbers for February, issued by MPOB:
March February Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,671,865 1,544,518 Up 8.25%
Palm Oil Exports 1,617,659 1,321,946 Up 22.37%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 74,701 91,303 Dn 18.18%
Palm Oil Imports 131,242 94,278 Up 39.21%
Closing Stocks 2,917,443 3,059,400 Dn 4.64%
Crude Palm Oil 1,689,239 1,926,434 Dn 12.31%
Processed Palm Oil 1,228,204 1,132,966 Up 8.41%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Significant precipitation is likely later this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April +48 May +162 May +83 May +24 May +3 May
May +48 May +83 May +30 July
June +42 July +63 July +27 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
April
May +31 May -20 May
June +34 July -22 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 445.50 -9.00 May 2019 dn 2.90
Track Thunder Bay 465.30 10.00 May 2019 dn 1.20
Track Vancouver 484.50 25.00 May 2019 dn 4.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 545.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May 547.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 555.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 560.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May 552.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 565.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 467.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,060 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 146 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1020)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,102 lots, or 4.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,334 3,345 3,331 3,338 3,324 3,339 15 88,126 124,824
Jul-19 – – – 3,385 3,371 3,385 14 0 266
Sep-19 3,422 3,432 3,420 3,423 3,420 3,425 5 34,700 78,228
Nov-19 – – – 3,420 3,420 3,420 0 0 38
Jan-20 3,410 3,410 3,404 3,410 3,400 3,407 7 1,276 32,120
Mar-20 – – – 3,413 3,410 3,413 3 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 794,218 lots, or 14.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,834 1,842 1,830 1,838 1,833 1,837 4 105,128 637,914
Jul-19 1,857 1,869 1,856 1,864 1,857 1,864 7 66,148 281,804
Sep-19 1,867 1,882 1,865 1,876 1,870 1,875 5 588,792 1,170,922
Nov-19 1,890 1,907 1,890 1,903 1,896 1,900 4 178 1,580
Jan-20 1,919 1,926 1,917 1,922 1,920 1,923 3 33,046 177,916
Mar-20 1,916 1,932 1,916 1,927 1,930 1,929 -1 926 1,160
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,148,116 lots, or 29.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,530 2,535 2,525 2,525 2,530 2,529 -1 170,784 711,172
Jul-19 2,566 2,568 2,554 2,555 2,566 2,560 -6 85,196 182,598
Aug-19 2,608 2,612 2,607 2,607 2,608 2,608 0 60 978
Sep-19 2,623 2,629 2,616 2,621 2,625 2,621 -4 865,260 1,881,094
Nov-19 2,643 2,652 2,643 2,646 2,649 2,647 -2 148 3,566
Dec-19 2,690 2,697 2,690 2,693 2,688 2,693 5 8 216
Jan-20 2,697 2,705 2,692 2,699 2,697 2,697 0 26,626 127,082
Mar-20 2,696 2,700 2,691 2,700 2,691 2,697 6 34 454
Palm Oil
Turnover: 613,866 lots, or 28.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-19 – – – 4,330 4,330 4,330 0 0 0
May-19 4,520 4,520 4,454 4,466 4,482 4,490 8 282,838 262,316
Jun-19 – – – 4,622 4,614 4,622 8 0 36
Jul-19 4,770 4,778 4,748 4,760 4,754 4,760 6 10 46
Aug-19 4,742 4,814 4,702 4,702 4,640 4,742 102 8 0
Sep-19 4,740 4,750 4,686 4,692 4,726 4,720 -6 318,710 375,296
Oct-19 4,740 4,786 4,740 4,748 4,744 4,760 16 18 6
Nov-19 – – – 4,860 4,844 4,860 16 0 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,882 4,882 4,882 0 0 20
Jan-20 4,792 4,800 4,766 4,772 4,792 4,780 -12 12,282 59,418
Feb-20 – – – 4,906 4,918 4,906 -12 0 2
Mar-20 – – – 4,808 4,808 4,808 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 443,372 lots, or 24.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,456 5,472 5,442 5,450 5,442 5,454 12 94,088 311,274
Jul-19 – – – 5,512 5,512 5,512 0 0 12
Aug-19 – – – 5,638 5,638 5,638 0 0 34
Sep-19 5,630 5,642 5,606 5,610 5,606 5,622 16 344,340 595,480
Nov-19 – – – 5,656 5,656 5,656 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,808 5,808 5,808 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,742 5,756 5,728 5,728 5,722 5,740 18 4,944 49,894
Mar-20 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322