About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 7-Apr 31-Mar 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 6 4 7 5
Corn Planted 2 2
Sorghum Planted 14 13 16 14
Rice Planted 19 12 20 21
Rice Emerged 7 2 10 8
Sugar beets Planted 3 1 3
Oats Planted 27 25 27 32
Oats Emerged 25 25 25 26
Winter Wheat Headed 3 3 4
Spring Wheat Planted 1 2 5
Barley Planted 2 3 9

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 2 7 31 48 12
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 7 35 45 11
Winter Wheat Last Year 14 21 35 26 4

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher again yesterday, and trends remain up in the market. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and the US government is indicating that a deal is possible in about a month. Both sides are negotiating the final points. USDA showed that planting progress was good, but progress did not really advance that much last week. A major storm moved through the Delta and Southeast over the weekend, and another big storm is in the forecast later this week. The bulk of the bad weather might miss Cotton areas this time. The futures market has absorbed a lot of bad news and is now working higher. The strong closes on Friday and again yesterday implies that higher prices will be seen over the next few weeks. The daily charts imply that the market can move to or above 82.00 cents per pound. US sales have suffered so far this year in world markets, but have started to improve as other sellers run out of supplies. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities such as gins are being opened.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers on Thursday and again about Saturday. Temperatures should be mostly below normal this week. Texas will have dry weather until some showers appear on Saturday. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 73.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 41,392 bales, from 34,293 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8030, 8070, and 8200 May. Support is at 7800, 7780, and 7700 May, with resistance of 7910, 7980, and 8030 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and made new lows for the move. Speculators turned sellers after the recent short covering rally that had found new commercial selling. Ideas continue that production remains strong and demand does not. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago. The movement and Pack report shows that inventories are now about 25% above last year. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to form. The Early and Mid harvest is over and producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia. Fruit is forming and developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers today, then dry weather. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions on Friday and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 110.00 May. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 116.00, and 120.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 8
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 3/30/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/30/2019 3/31/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 268.53 208.90 28.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.73 7.04 -18.7%
Total 274.25 215.94 27.0%
Pack
Bulk 5.21 3.19 63.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.36 0.83 64.4%
Total Pack 6.57 4.02 63.4%
Reprocessed -3.37 -2.81 19.8%
Pack from Fruit 3.21 1.21 164.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.02 -0.16 -84.6%
Imports – Foreign 5.74 8.00 -28.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.44 0.06 576.5%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.12 0.01 1359.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.04 -87.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 276.66 217.23 27.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.08 7.87 -9.9%
Total 283.74 225.10 26.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 6.13 3.58 71.3%
Exports 1.19 0.33 258.6%
Total (Bulk) 7.32 3.91 87.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.21 1.02 18.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.21 1.02 18.3%
Total Movement 8.53 4.93 72.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 269.33 213.32 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.87 6.84 -14.2%
Ending Inventory 275.21 220.16 25.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
30-Mar-19 31-Mar-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 85.08 63.27 34.5%
Retail/Institutional 30.85 32.83 -6.0%
Total Pack 115.93 96.10 20.6%
Reprocessed -62.35 -66.29 -5.9%
Pack from Fruit 53.58 29.81 79.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.95 0.77 22.9%
Imports – Foreign 142.14 148.31 -4.2%
Domestic Receipts 3.17 3.89 -18.5%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.39 -90.9%
from Non-Reporting Entit 2.59 0.14 1737.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.32 0.47 -32.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 407.25 335.97 21.2%
Retail/Institutional 36.76 40.03 -8.1%
Total 444.01 375.99 18.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 125.52 114.55 9.6%
Domestic 12.39 8.10 53.0%
Exports 137.91 122.64 12.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 30.89 33.18 -6.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 30.89 33.18 -6.9%
Total Movement 168.80 155.83 8.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 269.33 213.32 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.87 6.84 -14.2%
Ending Inventory 275.21 220.16 25.0%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York as weakness in the Brazilian Real caused some speculative selling. Prices closed a little higher in London and. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market right now, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. For example, Honduras has cut its export projections by more than a million bags due to lack of buying interest in its coffee. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can be between 52 and 55 million bags next year. Vietnam is active in its harvest, but producers are not willing to sell at current prices. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.493 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Vietnam will see some showers in central and northern areas today and tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 91.00, 88.00, and 85.00 May, and resistance is at 95.00, 97.00 and 98.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 May. Support is at 1390, 1360, and 1330 May, and resistance is at 1440, 1460, and 1480 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets, and both markets remain in a trading range. Price action is weak in both markets and it looks like the fundamentals of big world Sugar supplies are still the main trading feature. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Ideas of big production in Asia also help keep any rallies in check. Brazil weather is improving in all areas in recent weeks. However, it has turned drier in northern areas and there is concern that the dry season is starting early this year. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1220 May, and resistance is at 1280, 1300, and 1340 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 321.00, 319.00, and 318.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 336.00, and 340.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher again in both markets on what appeared to be follow through speculative buying. Trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Futures are at some longer term resistance areas in New York and appear to be breaking through these areas in London. The market appears to be looking for sales and trade action implies that a squeeze is on between the West African harvests. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is still a month or more away. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.748 million tons for the season, from about 1.521 million at this point last year. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.268 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2460 May. Support is at 2370, 2350, and 2310 May, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2510 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 May. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1750 Mary, with resistance at 1810, 1840, and 1860 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322