About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher again last week. Futures made new highs for the move and closed near those highs. The daily and weekly charts show that an up trend has started. The weekly export sales report showed stronger demand for US Cotton and there is talk that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and the US government is indicating that a deal is possible in about a month. Both sides are negotiating the final points. USDA showed that planting progress was good. Most of the progress this week will be in Texas after some big rains were reported over the weekend in the Delta. The Southeast is also getting some big rains early this week. The futures market has absorbed a lot of bad news and is now working higher. The strong close on Friday implies that higher prices will be seen over the next few weeks. The daily charts imply that the market can move to or above 82.00 cents per pound. US sales have suffered so far this year in world markets, but have started to improve as other sellers run out of supplies. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn due to relative pricing. Anecdotal reports imply that industry is preparing for more production as new facilities such as gins are being opened. Cotton production is poised to make a comeback in the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers and rains into next week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal this week, then cooler. Texas will have dry weather until some showers appear on Saturday. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 72.79 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 34,293 bales, from 32,089 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8030, 8070, and 8200 May. Support is at 7780, 7700, and 7650 May, with resistance of 7850, 7890, and 8030 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 284,440
: Positions :
: 45,955 36,751 67,566 69,182 153,331 86,739 14,072 269,442 271,719: 14,998 12,720
: Changes from: March 26, 2019 (Change in open interest: 3,045) :
: 1,780 -7,190 759 -212 10,009 1,740 255 4,068 3,833: -1,023 -788
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 12.9 23.8 24.3 53.9 30.5 4.9 94.7 95.5: 5.3 4.5
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 67 103 50 59 44 21 246 211:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again last week and trends are back down again. Speculators turned sellers after the recent short covering rally that had found new commercial selling. Ideas continue that production remains strong and demand does not. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to form. The Early and Mid harvest is over and producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia. Fruit is forming and developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers today and Friday. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers on Friday and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00, 115.00, and 110.00 May. Support is at 116.00, 115.00, and 114.00 May, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Apr 8
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 3/30/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/30/2019 3/31/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 268.53 208.90 28.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.73 7.04 -18.7%
Total 274.25 215.94 27.0%
Pack
Bulk 5.21 3.19 63.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.36 0.83 64.4%
Total Pack 6.57 4.02 63.4%
Reprocessed -3.37 -2.81 19.8%
Pack from Fruit 3.21 1.21 164.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.02 -0.16 -84.6%
Imports – Foreign 5.74 8.00 -28.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.44 0.06 576.5%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.12 0.01 1359.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.04 -87.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 276.66 217.23 27.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.08 7.87 -9.9%
Total 283.74 225.10 26.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 6.13 3.58 71.3%
Exports 1.19 0.33 258.6%
Total (Bulk) 7.32 3.91 87.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.21 1.02 18.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.21 1.02 18.3%
Total Movement 8.53 4.93 72.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 269.33 213.32 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.87 6.84 -14.2%
Ending Inventory 275.21 220.16 25.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
30-Mar-19 31-Mar-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Pack
Bulk 85.08 63.27 34.5%
Retail/Institutional 30.85 32.83 -6.0%
Total Pack 115.93 96.10 20.6%
Reprocessed -62.35 -66.29 -5.9%
Pack from Fruit 53.58 29.81 79.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.95 0.77 22.9%
Imports – Foreign 142.14 148.31 -4.2%
Domestic Receipts 3.17 3.89 -18.5%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.39 -90.9%
from Non-Reporting Entit 2.59 0.14 1737.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.32 0.47 -32.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 407.25 335.97 21.2%
Retail/Institutional 36.76 40.03 -8.1%
Total 444.01 375.99 18.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 125.52 114.55 9.6%
Domestic 12.39 8.10 53.0%
Exports 137.91 122.64 12.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 30.89 33.18 -6.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 30.89 33.18 -6.9%
Total Movement 168.80 155.83 8.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 269.33 213.32 26.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.87 6.84 -14.2%
Ending Inventory 275.21 220.16 25.0%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 2, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 22,722 :
: Positions :
: 12,289 10,387 1,826 0 0 1,306 6,222 437 914 870 3,085 :
: Changes from: March 26, 2019 :
: 223 0 -95 0 -78 30 -345 -4 -81 -24 222 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.1 45.7 8.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 27.4 1.9 4.0 3.8 13.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 78 :
: 24 11 6 0 0 6 19 . 12 8 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were lower for the week and made new lows for the move in New York as weakness in the Brazilian Real caused some speculative selling. Prices closed lower for the week in London and trends have turned down in this market. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market right now, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. For example, Honduras has cut its export projections by more than a million bags due to lack of buying interest in its coffee. It says that Brazil is selling at levels that are well below costs of production in Central America. Honduras is the low-cost producer in Central America.. The inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies in the world market. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. El Nino is fading, but remains in the forecast, and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest, but producers are not willing to sell at current prices. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season. It is still dry, and production potential for the next crop is getting hurt. Even so, London moved lower last week on speculative and origin selling. Some follow through weakness is possible for both markets early this week.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.493 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 95.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures until showers and rains appear on Friday and Saturday. Vietnam will see some showers in central and northern areas today and tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 93.00, 91.00, and 88.00 May, and resistance is at 98.00, 100.00 and 101.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1370 May. Support is at 1420, 1390, and 1360 May, and resistance is at 1460, 1480, and 1500 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 434,125
: Positions :
: 41,831 119,134 120,644 164,948 139,578 76,207 41,399 403,631 420,756: 30,494 13,369
: Changes from: March 26, 2019 (Change in open interest: 18,833) :
: 274 2,191 4,066 7,466 6,482 4,171 4,628 15,977 17,367: 2,855 1,466
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 27.4 27.8 38.0 32.2 17.6 9.5 93.0 96.9: 7.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 557 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 181 164 155 141 115 44 30 455 388:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/02/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
148,368 85,968 63,208 17,162 6,132 2,683
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.9% 42.6% 11.6% 4.1% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
179 61 45 14 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
7,865 41,533 13,744 2,738 1,384 14,732
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 28.0% 9.3% 1.8% 0.9% 9.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 40 17 16 6 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,476 4,951
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.3% 3.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher and charts still show a sideways range in New York. New York basically covered the entire short-term trading range with the price action yesterday, and speculators are watching. Breaking the range would give a big clue to the direction of the next move. London trends are down again and it looks like the fundamentals of big world Sugar supplies are still the main trading feature. The upside price potential might be somewhat limited. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Ideas of big production in Asia also help keep any rallies in check. Brazil weather is improving in all areas in recent weeks. However, it has turned drier in northern areas and there is concern that the dry season is starting early this year. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather until showers and rains appear on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1220 May, and resistance is at 1280, 1300, and 1340 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 327.00, 321.00, and 319.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 336.00, and 340.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,051,601
: Positions :
: 89,916 204,015 210,602 370,903 506,266 289,941 54,480 961,362 975,364: 90,239 76,237
: Changes from: March 26, 2019 (Change in open interest: -15,468) :
: 9,682 -5,546 -15,644 -19,320 7,793 6,115 -1,385 -19,166 -14,782: 3,699 -685
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 19.4 20.0 35.3 48.1 27.6 5.2 91.4 92.8: 8.6 7.2
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 67 84 85 76 33 22 224 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/02/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
101,811 52,264 55,496 12,969 1,445 1,094
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.3% 54.5% 12.7% 1.4% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 59 49 12 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,041 26,043 8,437 3,533 758 4,707
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.8% 25.6% 8.3% 3.5% 0.7% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 19 14 9 7 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,765 3,830
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 3.8%

China – Sugar production reached 2.52 mln tonnes in March, up over 16% from the same month last year and the highest volume for March since 2014, according to data from the China Sugar Association. Output so far in 2018/19 (Oct/Sep) at 9.897 mln tonnes.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher again in both markets on what appeared to be follow through speculative buying. Futures are at some longer term resistance areas in New York and appear to be breaking through these areas in London. The market appears to be looking for sales and trade action implies that a squeeze is on between the West African harvests. The main crop harvest should be about over and mid crop harvest is still a month or more away. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, and most in West Africa expect a very good mid crop harvest. Cameroon and Nigeria are reporting less production and prices there are reported strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.226 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2460 May. Support is at 2370, 2350, and 2310 May, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2510 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1900 May. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1750 Mary, with resistance at 1810, 1840, and 1860 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 290,138
: Positions :
: 22,548 68,077 61,222 127,352 119,549 63,032 27,378 274,154 276,227: 15,984 13,911
: Changes from: March 26, 2019 (Change in open interest: -9,699) :
: 1,075 -7,871 -8,113 -4,967 5,355 2,489 1,401 -9,516 -9,229: -182 -470
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 23.5 21.1 43.9 41.2 21.7 9.4 94.5 95.2: 5.5 4.8
: Total Traders: 221 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 67 79 42 36 33 19 187 163:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/02/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
339,564 194,513 209,063 33,006 31,000 22,234
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.3% 61.6% 9.7% 9.1% 6.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 52 47 15 7 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,676 16,035 26,294 3,989 324 31,542
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.0% 4.7% 7.7% 1.2% 0.1% 9.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 13 20 10 9 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,311 3,073
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322